Tennis riddle: When would you pick against a player who has won a tournament four of the last five times? Possible answer: When she has not reached a tournament final in 49 weeks, seen her No.1 ranking evanesced to No. 4 and she projects abject stress on the job. So it is that Iga Świątek enters Roland Garros as the two-time defending champion and one of the greatest clay courters ever. Yet, she arrives as a player in a deep freeze.
If she can’t defrost her tableau, who will win? Qinwen Zheng won the last event held at Roland Garros (the 2024 Paris Olympics) and is coming into form. Spreading joy wherever she goes (dashes), Jasmine Paolini was a finalist in ’24 and won in Rome last week. Coco Gauff overcomes the opponent and herself more times than not. We’ll take Aryna Sabalenka, the top seed and the clear-cut best player on the WTA Tour over the last year-plus.
The top 16
1. Aryna Sabalenka
She’s the top seed and good bet to win her fourth major and first French Open. Her power is that devastating. Slight cause for concern: Sabalenka has developed a bad habit of losing in finals … but then runs through draws as she did in Miami and Madrid and all is well.
2. Coco Gauff
Was it already seven years ago that Gauff was the Roland Garros junior champion? More relevant: She is a former finalist, has played well on clay in 2025 and seems to have cracked “the Iga riddle” that vexed her. Her game is still prone to untimely breakdowns. (See: the Rome final.) But her ability to play through those lapses is an element of her greatness.
3. Jessica Pegula
A consummate professional. A player worth emulating who has maxed out everything she can control, avoids own goals and competes uncompromisingly. Solid gets you so far … but only so far. The enduring question: Is she capable of winning a big prize?
4. Jasmine Paolini
Winsome, lose some. Winning Rome—the biggest title of her career—vaults her into the top four and, critically, a better draw. A finalist last year, Paolini had looked like a top-15 player in 2025, not a top-five player. Then came Rome, local success on the big court, in a clay context that mirrored a major … and suddenly she is back in the contender category.
5. Iga Świątek
Best case scenario: She’s back in her happy place, and breaks through the fog that has shrouded her game—which is entirely possible. But history notwithstanding, there is little to suggest she is prepared to win a fifth title in 2025. Since late March, her losses have come to little-known Alexandra Eala; her longtime nemesis Jelena Ostapenko (who looms in the fourth four in Paris); Gauff by the jaw-dropping scoreline of 6–1, 6–1; and Danielle Collins. It’s wild that she could play a higher-ranked opponent in the quarterfinals.
6. Mirra Andreeva
She was a semifinalist last year and has only gotten better since. The poise was always there; the power is coming. She’s cooled off a bit since winning Indian Wells. (Including back-to-back losses to Gauff on clay.) But for someone who just turned 18, this remains a career in bloom mode.
7. Madison Keys
The winner of the previous major is better on clay than she’d like you to believe. And her power—especially on a hot day—can be simply unanswerable. She’s cooled off a bit, including a stinging 7–6 third-set loss to Peyton Stearns in Rome. But has power, aura and a fine draw.
8. Qinwen Zheng
Lots of sources of both optimism and doubt. For the first four months of the year, her 2025 was an utter failure to launch. Then came Rome, which saw her beat Sabalenka along the way. Add that to her general clay prowess and Olympic gold medal at Roland Garros last summer and she is squarely in the contender camp. Note her possible quarterfinal against Sabalenka.
9. Emma Navarro
Not unlike Pegula, all credit to a player who puts herself in the best position to win. The challenge now: how to build on solid. She’s had a bit of an up-and-down year so far, but did reach the quarters of the previous major.
10. Paula Badosa
When she’s on, she can hang with the best. When she is injured—when her back is troubling her—she is far less effective. Note her first-round match against Naomi Osaka.
11. Diana Shnaider
Credit her for achieving this status at a young age (she just turned 21) in a career that included a college tennis stint. She is up to No. 11. Less happily, she is 11–11 on the year.
12. Elena Rybakina
Trivia: Who was the last player to beat Serena Williams at Roland Garros? Rybakina (in 2021), who has clay court chops. But these remain concerning, disconcerting times for a player who should be contending for all four majors, but is instead losing altitude. So much friction and instability and what a pity it all is.
13. Elina Svitolina
As her country is still besieged, Ukrainian soldiers on. At 30, Svitolina is playing some of her best ball in years. The winner of April’s Open de Rouen event, she went on to reach the semis in Madrid.
14. Karolína Muchová
She was a finalist two years ago. Not only endowed with so much game, but she also comes to play at the biggest events. The biggest question is can she stay healthy.
15. Barbora Krejčíková
Not only a former Roland Garros champion, but also the defending Wimbledon champion. It’s a Czech thing—see one seed up—but she comes to play at the big events. She is still seeking her first win of 2025, owing to a back injury that sidelined her until last week.
16. Amanda Anisimova
Big variance here. Anisimova is such a dangerous player. Can—and has—beaten everyone. In 2019, she came within a few games of reaching the Roland Garros final. This year alone she’s beaten Andreeva, Navarro, Ostapenko, Badosa and won Qatar. (She’s also lost to various players outside the top 40.)
Seeds 17–32
17. Daria Kasatkina
The Aussie sensation is A) a joy to watch, B) a player worthy of admiration and C) a good bet to live up to her seeding, but, alas not a real threat to win given her deficit of power.
21. Jelena Ostapenko
A seeded wild card, we know Ostapenko’s top level. Not just her 2017 Roland Garros title, but her bursts of outrageous results. (See: Stuttgart where she beat Świątek—as always—and Sabalenka to win.) We also know her capacity for lapses. (See: when she went 0–3 in Dubai, Indian Wells and Miami).
22. Clara Tauson
The slugging Dane makes up for movement with power.
23. Beatriz Haddad Maia
The Brazilian lefty is a former semifinalist, who might one day put it all together.
26. Marta Kostyuk
She’s a hot-and-cold player who competes well and with passion. Even without a “Ukrainian bump” a player worthy of starring on your racing form.
28. Peyton Stearns
The former NCAA champ is a battler who won three matches in Rome 7–6 in the third set. (She also has Roland Garros wins over Ostapenko and Kasatkina.)
31. Sofia Kenin
She has wildly erratic results, but is a former Roland Garros finalist and deserves great credit for getting back to the Land of the Seeds after a detour outside the top 100.
Dark horse pasture
Ons Jabeur: The days of contending for majors might be behind her, but she’s still too good (and dangerous) not to merit mention.
Danielle Collins: A top-10 player (and clay court event victor) in 2024, comes off a win over Świątek.
Victoria Azarenka: The future Hall of Famer started May outside the top 50, but has always been dangerous on the right day. Speaking of moms …
Belinda Bencic: The former gold medal winner has a number of strong wins since her return from maternity leave.
Naomi Osaka: Four-time major winners get name-checked. So do players with WTA clay court titles this spring. Osaka is both.
Alexandra Eala: Can the highest-ranked Filipino ever keep it going?
Maria Sakkari: It’s been a rough go. But she is a former finalist who is much better than her sub-50 ranking suggests.
First round matches to watch
- Olga Danilović vs. Leylah Fernandez
- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Qinwen Zheng: Two former major finalists.
- Naomi Osaka vs. Paula Badosa
- Magdalena Fręch vs. Ons Jabeur
Upset special
Bencic d. Rybakina
Semifinals
Sabalenka d. Svitolina
Gauff d. Andreeva
Finals
Sabalenka d. Gauff
More French Open on Sports Illustrated
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 Roland Garros Women’s Seed Report: Iga Świątek Looks to Bounce Back in Paris.