Dak Prescott is coming off a very forgettable 2024 campaign, averaging a meager 14.6 fantasy points in his eight starts before going down with an injury that cost him the final nine weeks. He failed to score more than 17 points in all but one game, and Prescott was on pace to throw for a modest 23 touchdown passes and career-high 17 interceptions.
Maybe more notably than his struggles as a passer is the fact that Prescott was on pace for just 28 rushing attempts and 115 rushing yards. That would have been 27 fewer carries and 127 fewer yards than he had the previous season. He would have also been on pace for just two touchdowns on the ground. After scoring six rushing touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons, Prescott has recorded a combined 11 rushing scores since 2019.
In those first three seasons, Prescott’s rushing totals made up for 22 percent (2016), 28 percent (2017) and 23 percent (2018) of his total fantasy points. If we project his 2024 totals (eight games) over a full season, nine percent of his fantasy points would have come as a runner ... and he would have finished just 17th in points among quarterbacks.
That decline in rushing attempts probably has much to do with the lower leg injuries he’s suffered in recent years. He’s also entering his age-32 campaign, so Dak isn’t getting any younger. On the surface, those things appear to be bad news for his fantasy draft value.
2025 Fantasy Outlook
The Cowboys’ biggest offseason move was adding George Pickens to the offense. That should help bolster Prescott’s passing totals, as he now has a talented group of pass catchers led by CeeDee Lamb that now includes Pickens, Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert. If Prescott isn’t going to run nearly as often as he had earlier in his career, then he’ll obviously need to make up some of those fantasy points through the air.
Dallas also added an offensive lineman (and another Tyler) in the first round of the NFL draft with the selection of Alabama’s Tyler Booker. The Boys’ reconstructed offensive line is good news for Prescott in theory, as he'll have time to stay in the pocket and go through his progressions.
The Cowboys also retained former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, making him their new head coach. While that probably drives fans of the franchise nuts, the move was made in large part because Schottenheimer has a great relationship with Prescott.
Draft Or Pass
Prescott is back at 100 percent and comes into this season with a lot to prove after signing a massive new deal last year before getting hurt. The addition of Pickens is huge for him from a statistical perspective, as Prescott had one of his best seasons (2021) as a passer when he had both Lamb and Amari Cooper at his disposal. Prescott was also successful through the air in 2023, when he had the trio of Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Ferguson.
It can be argued that the group of Lamb, Pickens and Ferguson is better than both the 2021 and 2023 teams in terms of Prescott’s best group of weapons, and that new offensive line should certainly allow him ample time to make good decisions and find his receivers downfield.
While I’d like to see Prescott run more (four of his five best fantasy seasons were aided by at least 45.7 points scored as a rusher), he did prove in 2023 that he can be a highly valuable fantasy quarterback mostly as a passer. That season, he finished third among quarterbacks despite scoring just 36.2 points as a runner.
That was just 11 percent of his total numbers.
In the month of May, Prescott was the 13th quarterback coming off the board (98.3 ADP) on average on the NFFC website. In the recent SI 12-Team PPR Mock Draft, the Cowboys field general was the first pick in Round 14! That might be lower than he’ll go in most “home” leagues, but it proves that Prescott has lost some of his luster ... and could be a bargain.
So, even after his mediocre fantasy totals from a season ago before he got hurt, Prescott will be difficult to pass on as a low-end QB1 if he falls into the double-digit rounds.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Draft Or Pass: Is Dak Prescott Ready To Rebound in 2025?.