The Western Conference Final marches on as it heads back to Edmonton for Game 3.
The Stars won Game 1 on their home ice, but the Oilers bounced back in Game 2, shutting the Stars out by a final score of 3-0. So, how should we bet on Game 3? That's the question I'm here to answer.
Top NHL Picks Today
- Oilers -1.5 (+164) vs. Stars
- Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (+140)
Stars vs. Oilers Game 3 Prediction
Despite the series being tied at 1-1, it's been clear to me the Oilers have been the better team. Goaltending variance swayed against them in Game 1 and then in their favor in Game 2, but the underlying metrics show the Oilers were the better team in both games in Dallas. Through the first two games, they have 5-on-5 expected goal differential of +0.55 and that balloons at +1.36 when you take special teams into consideration.
Stuart Skinner is the wild card of the series and he showed how things can sway either direction in the first two games, but with the series returning to Edmonton I have faith in him having a strong performance on his home ice. I think the Oilers not only win this game, but win it in impressive fashion by at least two goals.
Pick: Oilers -1.5 (+164)
Stars vs. Oilers Game 3 Prop Bet
One of the more surprising things about the Oilers this postseason is that Connor McDavid has scored just three goals despite the plethora of high-scoring games they've played. He has plenty of assists, but hasn't been able to find the back of the net. I'm determined to believe that's going to change sooner rather than later as he continues to create scoring opportunities, sporting an expected goals metric of 6.1, the most on the Oilers.
This didn't hit for me in Game 2, but I'm going back to the well by betting on the best hockey player on the planet to find the back of the net in Game 3.
Pick: Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (+140)
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props Today (Take Oilers to Win Big at Home).