Forde-Yard Dash: Four Big Ten Showdowns Will Separate CFP Contenders From Pretenders

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where all the power conferences can now count to nine. First Quarter: It Was All a Lie. Second Quarter: Reexamining the Quarterback Recruiting Class of 2022. Third Quarter: The Perils of Rivalry Preservation.

Fourth Quarter: Now It Gets Real

The Big Ten has spent the first four weeks of the season playing with its food, with the good teams winning most of the games they were supposed to win and the bad teams taking a few bad losses. The biggest victory was in the books by mid-afternoon on Aug. 30, when Ohio State beat Texas. UCLA was dismissed as a serious program by Sept. 13. It wasn’t until Indiana reduced Illinois to a gelatinous substance Saturday night that a serious blow was struck in the league race.

That changes Saturday. There are four Big Ten showdowns that should provide some clarity about the league’s College Football Playoff contenders, with three Pac-12 imports in starring roles:

Oregon at Penn State (31)

The Ducks (4–0) fail to see what all the hubbub is about in this league, having gone 10–0 in it and won the championship last year. (And, yes, then they were absolutely pole-axed by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.) They get a different dose of hubbub Saturday in white-out conditions at Penn State. The road trip to Northwestern’s pop-up stadium two weeks ago won’t get the Ducks ready for this.

It’s finally time to take the full measure of the Nittany Lions (3–0), who have played three chumps so far. The soft nonconference launch worked quite well for the last two national champions, both of whom came from the Big Ten: Ohio State last year and Michigan in 2023. Penn State has done everything else in a manner that mimics their championship runs, so why not this?

Thus far the only question about James Franklin’s team is one that has been asked before: Where are the explosive plays? Penn State has 12 plays of 20 yards or more, four of 30-plus and two of 40-plus—pedestrian numbers.

Line: Penn State by 3.5.

Dash pick: Penn State 28, Oregon 24.

Ohio State at Washington (32)

The Huskies (3–0) don’t lose in Husky Stadium—they’ve won 22 straight there across four seasons and two coaches. But the Buckeyes (3–0) have won seven straight anywhere, and eight straight away from home. Something has to give.

This is a great matchup of young quarterbacks, with Demond Williams Jr. of Washington facing the best defense of his career and Julian Sayin facing his first road test. It says here that Buckeyes defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has both the scheme and the personnel to make Williams struggle—but this won’t be a rout.

Line: Ohio State by 9.5.

Dash pick: Ohio State 24, Washington 17.

USC at Illinois (33)

The fragility of the Trojans under Lincoln Riley was illustrated last season by come-from-ahead road losses at Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland. If they want to prove that this year really is different, a solid step would be a road W over an Illini team that is still trying to locate its teeth after Indiana knocked them all out. If the Illini have any remaining pride, they will show up Saturday. This is a body-clock kickoff of note for the Trojans, starting at noon ET and 9 a.m. PT.

USC has been a splash-play machine, leading the nation or tied for first plays from scrimmage of 40-plus yards (12), 50-yarders (eight) and 60 (six). Wideout Makai Lemon has been an all-purpose menace, and junior-college transfer Waymond Jordan has put some punch in the running game.

Line: USC by 6.5.

Dask pick: USC 34, Illinois 24.

Indiana at Iowa (34)

The Hoosiers are the boat race kings of college football under Curt Cignetti with 14 of their 15 wins coming by two touchdowns or more (often much more). Now they are facing He Who Cannot Be Boat Raced (at least in Iowa City), Kirk Ferentz. Iowa is 43–12 in Kinnick Stadium over the last eight-plus seasons, including a few upsets of ranked opponents.

The Hawkeyes have to do what they historically do, which is dictating field position and making it hard for offenses to score. But they will need continued progression from quarterback Mark Gronowski, who at least took the training wheels off against Rutgers and started making plays. Is that enough to keep pace with a torrid, well-rounded Indiana team? We’ll see.

Line: Indiana by 7.5.

Dash pick: Indiana 28, Iowa 21.

Not to be outdone, the SEC has a couple of major throwdowns of its own:

Alabama at Georgia (35)

Also known as the Kirby Smart Psychoanalysis Game. The best current coach in college football has fainting spells against the Crimson Tide—he’s 107–13 against the rest of college football and 1–6 against Bama. What used to be a Nick Saban hang-up transferred to Kalen DeBoer last year.

Georgia (3–0) showed its survival instincts (and shaky defense) in winning at Tennessee. Alabama (2–1) still has a lot to prove after the opening flop against Florida State. A Ty Simpson vs. Gunner Stockton QB battle has some allure.

Line: Georgia by 2.5.

Dash pick: Alabama 30, Georgia 27.

LSU at Ole Miss (36)

It seems entirely possible that Lane Kiffin could grab a frat boy out of the stands at Vaught Hemingway Stadium, remove his blue blazer, put him in uniform and get him to throw for 300 yards in a game. Replacing first-round NFL draft pick Jaxson Dart was supposed to be difficult, but Austin Simmons was doing a solid job of that until he got hurt—then Division II transfer Trinidad Chambliss stepped in and has been on fire for the 4–0 Rebels.

Also on fire: the formerly maligned LSU defense, which has not allowed more than 10 points or 366 total yards in a game this season. The Tigers (4–0) could use more from quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and a running game that ranks 15th in the SEC.

Line: Ole Miss by 1.5.

Dash pick: Ole Miss 24, LSU 21.

The Big 12 has the state of Arizona (37) on center stage, with the Wildcats on the road and the Sun Devils at home against other league title contenders:

Arizona at Iowa State

They’re a combined 7–0, which isn’t that surprising for the Cyclones but marks a sharp turnaround from the Wildcats after going 4–8 last year. Next step for Arizona would be winning a big road game, after going 1–4 away from Tucson in 2024.

Line: Iowa State by 5.5.

Dash pick: Iowa State 21, Arizona 13.

TCU at Arizona State

The challenge for the Horned Frogs (3–0) is to refocus after the rivalry victory over SMU for a road game against the reigning Big 12 champions, who started their title defense with a road win over Baylor. Quarterback Sam Leavitt is playing better after a slow start for ASU, while Josh Hoover has been on point all season for the Horned Frogs.

Line: Arizona State by 2.5.

Dash pick: Arizona State 27, TCU 23.

And it’s a trap weekend (38) in the ACC, with all three remaining unbeatens playing on the road:

Florida State at Virginia

Tony Elliott hasn’t done much in three-plus seasons coaching the Cavaliers, but he might have his best team at 3–1. This is a Friday night trap being laid for the Seminoles (3–0), who could be looking ahead to a showdown with Miami next week.

Line: Florida State by 6.5.

Dash pick: Florida State 34, Virginia 31.

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons (2–1) showed some fight against NC State, and will have had 16 days since then to get ready for the 4–0 Yellow Jackets. So the setup is there, but the run defense might not be against smashmouth Tech.

Line: Georgia Tech by 13.5.

Dash pick: Georgia Tech 23, Wake Forest 14.

Louisville at Pittsburgh

The Panthers (2–1) are coming off an open date after a brutal rivalry loss to West Virginia. The Cardinals (3–0) haven’t played anybody and haven’t left home. Louisville has some health concerns and needs better performance on the offensive line and at quarterback.

Line: Louisville by 4.5.

Dash pick: Pittsburgh 27, Louisville 26.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week

Mike Locksley (39), Maryland. In July at Big Ten media days, Locksley made a candid admission:

“A year ago, Coach Locks lost his locker room. For me to stand in front of a group of media and tell you that I lost my locker room—and it wasn’t because I wasn’t a good coach, it wasn’t because they weren’t good players, because we were better than a four-win team. We had haves and have-nots for the first time in our locker room, and the landscape of college football taught me a valuable lesson. … It’s important for me, even in the midst of this change, to continue to educate our players on the importance of what playing for something bigger than yourself is all about, and I can tell you that if I’ve got to put my desk in the locker room this year, I will.”

Whether his desk is in it or not, Locksley has his locker room back. The Terrapins are 4–0 and coming off a blowout road win over Wisconsin, with freshman quarterback Malik Washington playing well. The Terrapins, of all teams, may yet have something to say about how the Big Ten sorts itself out come October.

Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work

Matt Rhule (40), Nebraska. On the positive side, his three-season tenure is going better than Luke Fickell’s at Wisconsin. On the negative side, it’s still not a dramatic improvement over the Scott Frost era. Signature wins keep eluding the Cornhuskers, most recently at home against Michigan on Saturday (although the October schedule could be a cake walk).

Point After

When thirsty in suddenly football-mad Bloomington, Ind., The Dash recommends a stop at The Tap (41) downtown on the square for a burger, a beer and an afternoon of games on the vast array of TVs. Order an Upland Dragonfly IPA and thank The Dash later.