The 2025 NFL season has been bonkers, and the beginning of Week 16 has taken the cake.
On Thursday, the Seahawks won 38–37 in overtime against the Rams, not only taking control of first place in the NFC West but overtaking Los Angeles as the NFC’s top seed.
Saturday afternoon, the Eagles defeated the Commanders to earn their second consecutive NFC East crown. Still, the real jewel of the evening happened afterwards, with the Bears erasing a 10-point deficit in the final 150 seconds of regulation before winning 22–16 in overtime on a 46-yard touchdown pass from Caleb Williams to DJ Moore.
On Sunday, the early window saw some horrific football, but the Buccaneers and Panthers saved us. In a game between two 7–7 teams tied atop the NFC South, it was Carolina coming away with a crucial 23–20 victory. While the Panthers haven't wrapped up anything with the two teams playing the rematch in Week 18 at Raymond James Stadium, Carolina has the inside track to a home game in the wild-card round with two weeks remaining.
The rest of the slate could also create plenty of shuffling when it comes to playoff seeding. The Broncos lost 34–20 to the Jaguars, with Jacksonville earning its sixth consecutive victory.
On Sunday night, the Ravens (7–7) will attempt to help their postseason hopes with a victory vs. the AFC East–leading Patriots (11–3) during their Sunday Night Football showdown.
Week 16 will conclude with an intriguing Monday Night Football battle between the 49ers (10–4) and Philip Rivers’s Colts (8–6). It’s still hard to believe the 44-year-old Rivers is playing meaningful games in 2025. San Francisco could steal the NFC West by winning its final three games. Indianapolis needs to win out and get help from other teams to sneak into the playoffs.
Let’s assess all of the action, starting with the Jaguars toppling Denver.
Good: Jaguars showing they can compete for AFC title
Early in the year, the Jaguars were living off the mistakes of other teams. Now, they are dominating on their own merit.
On Sunday, Jacksonville went into Denver and dealt the Broncos their first home loss in 13 games, winning 34–20 with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 279 yards and Parker Washington catching six passes for 145 yards and a score. At 11–4, the Jaguars lead the AFC South by a game over the Texans and have a favorable schedule with the Colts and Titans left on the docket.
Throughout Jacksonville’s 4–1 start, the Jaguars feasted on 13 takeaways and two nonoffensive touchdowns. It seemed those things had evened out when they plunged to 5–4. Since, Jacksonville has won six consecutive games while averaging 34.1 points per game. The Jaguars have also permitted more than 20 points only once during that span, showcasing how well they’re playing in every phase.
Lawrence is also playing the best football we’ve seen from him at the NFL level. The 2021 No. 1 pick has thrown 12 touchdowns without an interception over the past four games, while averaging at least 8.0 yards per attempt in each contest.
If the Jaguars can get that level of play from Lawrence, along with complementary football from the offense and defense, there’s no reason the Jaguars can’t play deep into the postseason. And if they win out, they have a 43% chance of being the conference’s top seed.
Bad: Broncos suddenly fighting for AFC West
Denver is still in great shape, even after losing 34–20 to the Jaguars. Denver is 12–3, leading the AFC West by a game over the Chargers, who after beating the Cowboys in Dallas, are riding a four-game winning streak. The two teams play in Week 18 at Denver, with Los Angeles having won the first matchup in Week 3.
The Chargers must beat the Texans at home in Week 17. If they do, they’ll have a winner-take-all game in the season finale, with the victor earning the AFC West title. For Denver, that would mean a swing of going from being the top-seeded AFC team with two weeks remaining to having a road game in the wild-card round.
The good news for Denver? The Broncos play the Chiefs on Christmas night, who will be without Patrick Mahomes and lost 26–9 to the Titans on Sunday. If Denver can handle that assignment, it simply has to come home and beat the Chargers in a building that Denver has lost only once over the past 13 games.
Still, the race is tightening for a Broncos team that was seemingly on cruise control during its 11-game winning streak.
Ugly: The Lions are going to have a long offseason ahead
Last year, the Lions won 15 games despite a crush of injuries. This season, they were deemed one of the favorites to reach Super Bowl LX, potentially giving Detroit its first Lombardi Trophy.
Now, after a wild ending featuring an Amon-Ra St. Brown offensive pass interference penalty to negate a game-winning Jared Goff touchdown at the gun, the Lions are 8–7. Unless Detroit wins out and the Packers lose their final two games, the Lions will be home for the postseason, a fate Dan Campbell’s team hasn’t suffered since 2022.
For Detroit, hard questions must be asked. The offense hasn’t missed Ben Johnson, ranking third in yards and first in points entering Sunday. However, the defense had a litany of injuries once more and has struggled down the stretch, allowing at least 27 points in each of the Lions’ past five games. It’s a mirror image of what took place in 2024. So what must change for the result to improve?
While no star player is slated for free agency, the Lions are projected to have only $5.8 million in cap space in 2026. Looking at their cap sheet, there are no easy cuts for general manager Brad Holmes to make for extra cap space. In short, answers must come from the draft and a few minor signings.
The Lions were supposed to be a championship contender. Instead, they failed, and now face a long winter of questions.
Good: Hats off to Dave Canales, Ejiro Evero and the Panthers
The Panthers are 8–7 and leading the NFC South with two games remaining in the regular season. Who saw that coming?
Carolina beat Tampa Bay 23–20 on Sunday in Charlotte, taking a one-game lead in the division with games against the Seahawks and Buccaneers remaining. It won’t be easy, but the Panthers would clinch the NFC South with a win over Seattle and a Bucs loss next week, or by simply winning in Week 18 against Tampa.
Regardless, the team has been turned around quickly after consecutive losing seasons, including seven wins over the past two years. Under second-year coach Dave Canales, Carolina has found something in a nasty, two-headed rushing attack featuring Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, star rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan and a defense coming of age.
Dowdle has over 1,000 rushing yards this season after signing as a free agent, while McMillan has 924 receiving yards, including 73 and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. The defense, which ranked 32nd in both points and yardage allowed in 2024, entered Sunday 14th and 17th in those respective categories. The latter is due to Ejiro Evero, Canales’s defensive coordinator, who is finding success in his second year on the job.
To that end, there’s a legion of factors. General manager Dan Morgan did well to find talent across free agency, including linebacker Christian Rozeboom, safety Tre’von Moehrig and defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton. They also added young talent in the draft, such as edge rusher Nic Scourton (3.5 sacks) and safety Lathan Ransom, whose interception sealed Sunday’s victory.
Then there’s the health of star defensive end Derrick Brown, who, after being lost to a knee injury in Week 1 of last season, has come back to notch five sacks, seven passes defensed and 10 quarterback hits.
Bottom line: The Panthers are playing good football, and it’s a total team effort.
Bad: The Dolphins’ long-term hopes at quarterback
After Monday’s loss to the Steelers, which dropped the Dolphins to 6–8 and eliminated them from postseason contention, Miami coach Mike McDaniel benched starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa has been terrible for much of the season, throwing 20 touchdowns against 15 interceptions, including four games with multiple picks. In his six-year career, Tagovailoa has sustained several concussions while also failing to win a playoff game, creating both health concerns and worry about his ceiling as a difference-maker.
On Sunday, McDaniel turned to seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers, hoping the rookie could provide a spark. Instead, facing the league’s 32nd-ranked defense, Ewers threw two interceptions in a 45–21 blowout defeat to the Bengals. With two games left, it makes sense to play Ewers against the Buccaneers and Patriots before evaluating all options in the offseason.
The problem, though, is Tagovailoa’s contract. Last offseason, former general manager Chris Grier signed the 2020 first-round pick to a four-year, $212 million extension, which runs through 2028.
To trade Tagovailoa, an acquiring team would need to accept cap hits of $39 million, $31 million and $41.4 million, respectively, albeit with zero guaranteed money. To move him, the Dolphins would have to eat significant dead cap, with how much depending on whether it’s a pre- or post-June 1 move. Cutting him is out of the question.
Can Tagovailoa be traded? In theory, yes. But finding a taker could prove extremely difficult for a team in dire need of a complete overhaul.
Ugly: Andy Reid’s coaching strategy on Sunday was malpractice
At 6–8 and officially eliminated from postseason contention, there was an expectation around the Chiefs that they would play some younger talent, which hadn’t seen much time, such as rookies Brashard Smith and Jalen Royals on offense, and first-year linebacker Jeffrey Bassa on defense.
Instead, Royals and Bassa never saw the field for their respective units (Bassa played his usual role on special teams, while Royals was an afterthought). Smith, a rookie back with some speed, watched as veteran and soon-to-be free agent Isiah Pacheco was featured, getting 14 touches for 74 yards. Meanwhile, Smith didn’t touch the ball until the final series.
Despite playing all the available veterans at his disposal, the Chiefs still couldn’t manage to score a touchdown. The offense gave up a safety and totaled 133 yards while tight end Travis Kelce saw four targets for one catch and six yards. On a positive note, he went over 800 receiving yards on the season, giving him his 12th consecutive campaign to tie with Jerry Rice for an NFL record.
It’s one thing to lose, but it’s another to have a game in which getting a look at some younger players for future roles would be beneficial and another to do none of it. Reid’s job is justifiably safe considering he’s helmed the Chiefs to five of the last six Super Bowls, winning three.
Yet there should be internal questions about why the younger players watched the loss in Tennessee rather than participating in it, and how that can be changed in the final two games.
Good: Jalen Hurts provides clutch throws
Hurts helped the Eagles (10–5) regain control of a messy game after delivering a tight-window touchdown pass to tight end Dallas Goedert on third-and-15 for a 14–10 advantage with 3:27 left in the third quarter.
It was all downhill from there for Washington, as the Eagles turned a Cooper DeJean interception into a Barkley 12-yard touchdown run, extending the advantage to 11 points with 11:33 left in regulation.
Everything changed after that clutch throw from Hurts; the Eagles couldn’t afford to settle for another field-goal attempt from Jake Elliott, who missed three kicks in the first half.
If the Eagles had turned those empty red-zone drives into touchdowns, this game would have been over by halftime and the most significant talking point would have been about Hurt’s sensational performance. He also had a five-yard touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith on the opening drive, helping Philadelphia put aside a fumble on the opening kickoff.
This was another ugly Eagles’ game because of the special teams miscues, but this was a rare, efficient offensive performance, with Smith (six catches, 42 yards, TD), Barkley and A.J. Brown (nine catches, 95 yards) providing highlight plays. Hurts finished 22-of-30 for 185 yards and added seven carries for 40 yards. Overall, the Eagles recorded 385 total yards, with a whopping 207 coming on the ground.
Finally, offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo delivered positive results for this inconsistent offense, and has Hurts to thank for that after coming through on third-and-goal from the 15-yard line.
Bad: Eagles might have a kicker problem
Eagles coach Nick Sirianni will have to decide whether to stick with Elliott before the postseason arrives.
Elliott has been a reliable kicker for many years. Still, he might have lost his confidence after going wide left on his three field-goal attempts in the first half—only two counted because the Commanders were penalized on the second try. Elliott entered the game 17-of-22 on field-goal attempts and 35-of-36 on extra-point tries.
To make matters worse for special teams coordinator Michael Clay, returner and running back Will Shipley fumbled on the opening kickoff, which led to Washington taking a 3–0 advantage. Shipley later made the mistake of returning a kick near the goal line instead of just settling for the touchback.
Ugly: Washington fans should skip the final two games
It’s hard not to blame Commanders fans if they decide to skip the final two games of the season after the team’s atrocious performance against the Eagles on Saturday.
There’s no need to suffer through watching Marcus Mariota or Josh Johnson operate one of the slowest and oldest offenses in the league. Mariota was injured in the second half and was unable to finish the game. Terry McLaurin had a team-high three catches for 53 yards, which tells you plenty about this sluggish offense.
There are so many better options than having to sit through two more Sundays of watching coach Dan Quinn’s paper-thin defense, which allowed Philadelphia to break out of its funk. If that’s not painful enough, TV broadcasters constantly reminded viewers of all the draft picks the Commanders (4–11) don’t have due to the trades for Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil.
Unless you’re a Commanders fan who enjoys misery, enjoy the outdoors, and check back on this dreadful team in March when free agency opens.
Without Jayden Daniels, there’s no point in watching the Commanders on Christmas against the Cowboys. And there’s no need to see this team get pummeled again by the Eagles to close out the regular season.
Good: Williams, Willis take turns playing hero in wild finish
Williams went from being outplayed by a backup for long stretches to ending the game as a Chicago hero.
The Bears (11–4), who clinched a playoff berth with Detroit's loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, having a superstar quarterback became a reality after Williams unleashed a walk-off 46-yard touchdown pass to Moore in overtime. Chicago could have easily played it safe by settling for a field goal after forcing a turnover on downs for Green Bay’s first possession of the extra period.
But Williams didn’t hesitate on his opportunity after failing to connect on the deep shot most of the game. Willis, the fourth-year backup, also had his hero moments, hitting Romeo Doubs for a 33-yard touchdown pass and a 13–3 advantage with 33 seconds left in the third quarter.
But Williams picked up the pace in the final five minutes of regulation. He extended plays with his legs and had big-chunk plays in the middle of the field to trim the deficit to three points before the Packers (9–5–1) gifted the Bears another opportunity with a failed onside kick recovery inside the final two minutes.
Williams made the most of the extra possession, hitting a clutch, fadeaway six-yard touchdown pass to undrafted rookie receiver Jahdae Walker for the improbable game-tying score on fourth-and-4 to eventually send the game to overtime. Williams went 19-of-34 for 250 yards and two touchdowns and added three carries for 30 yards.
It was a sour ending for Willis, who might have gotten hurt in the final seconds of regulation, but he clearly proved he’s one of the better backups in the league. Willis (9-of-11, 121 yards, TD) showed poise by calmly operating the Packers’ offense once Love exited in the second quarter with a concussion, leaning on his legs to extend plays (44 rushing yards) and hitting timely throws to tight end Luke Musgrave.
Bad: Short-handed Packers could miss playoffs
Plenty has changed since the Packers beat the Bears in their first meeting just two weeks ago.
After the Week 14 victory, Green Bay had control of the NFC North and was in contention for the No. 1 seed. But now there’s a chance the Packers miss the playoffs altogether.
They blew a nine-point second-half lead against the Broncos last week, when Micah Parsons sustained a season-ending knee injury, and followed that with the 10-point meltdown in Chicago. Now they could be without Love for a Week 17 matchup against the Ravens. Green Bay ends the season on the road against Minnesota.
Green Bay’s sudden free fall could benefit Detroit, which is outside of the NFC playoff picture. The Lions (8–6) would be a half-game behind the Packers if they beat the Steelers on Sunday.
It would be a monumental disaster for the Packers to miss the playoffs after relinquishing two first-round picks to the Cowboys during the summer blockbuster trade for Parsons.
Ugly: Green Bay will be thinking about its killer mistakes
The Bears appeared dead in the water after being forced into an onside kick due to poor time management, failing to get Cairo Santos’s 43-yard field goal through the uprights before the two-minute warning.
But instead of kicking themselves for the blunder, Williams was back on the field because Doubs failed to recover Santos’s onside kick. That moment led to Williams delivering the best performance of his young career. Ironically, cornerback Keisean Nixon allowed Walker to break free in the end zone for the game-tying touchdown pass with 24 seconds left in regulation. Nixon had the game-saving interception off Williams to give the Packers the victory in the first meeting.
Green Bay got the ball first in overtime but ended up giving Chicago a short field after a turnover on downs. However, the Packers should never have gotten to overtime, as they had many chances to put the Bears away before the wild final five minutes.
The Packers had awful execution inside the red zone, starting with the opening drive that ended on the 7-yard line after Love’s incompletion to Christian Watson on fourth-and-1. Four out of Green Bay’s first five drives ended inside Chicago’s 10-yard line and had only six points to show for it due to a Josh Jacobs fumble and the turnover on downs. The Packers later returned to the red zone in the fourth quarter and were forced to settle for another Brandon McManus field goal.
The Packers have no one to blame but themselves for the late collapse.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Good, Bad and Ugly, NFL Week 16: Jaguars Have a Shot at AFC’s No. 1 Seed.