How the MLB Wild-Card Chasers Can Overcome the Odds and Make the Playoffs

There's less than two weeks remaining in the 2025 MLB season, but the playoff race remains wide open as teams compete for one of each league's three wild-card spots.

Entering play Wednesday, the wild card winners would include the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox from the American League, and the Cubs, Padres and Mets in the National League.

But just because a team is currently in position to sneak into the postseason doesn't mean the job is done. There are a handful of teams still sitting within striking distance, and a strong end of the season could enable them to surpass one of the teams currently tracking to earn a wild-card berth.

Let's take a look at which teams are still in the mix yet currently on the outside looking in at the playoff race. We'll break down what each team must do to sneak into the postseason both in terms of their remaining schedule and a struggling star who needs to step up.

American League

Cleveland Guardians (79–71), 2.5 GB of final wild-card spot

Remaining schedule: @ DET (2), @ MIN (4), vs. DET (3), vs. TEX (3)
FanGraphs playoff odds: 14%

The Guardians have caught fire at the right time. Now just 2.5 games behind the Red Sox in the wild-card race, Cleveland has won nine of its last 10 games, including five in a row. The Guardians have nine games against division rivals remaining, including five against the AL Central-leading Tigers, whom they trail by 5.5 games, and end the season with a pivotal matchup against the Rangers, who sit behind them in the AL playoff hunt.

That matchup against Texas could directly determine whether Cleveland's season will extend into October. Of course, beating the Rangers will be vital, and sweeping them would effectively eliminate Texas from playoff contention, but even that might not be enough for the Guardians if they don't take care of business against Detroit and Minnesota.

The Guardians will be looking to Steven Kwan to heat back up offensively. The usually reliable outfielder struggled throughout the summer, but appears to be rediscovering his usual form. After logging a .514 OPS in the month of August, he's batting .304 in 15 games in September. As his play has improved, so has that of his team, and the fan base will certainly be hoping he can stay hot through the end of the year.

Texas Rangers (79–73), 3.5 GB

Remaining schedule: @ HOU (1), vs. MIA (3), vs. MIN (3), @ CLE (3)
FanGraphs playoff odds: 12.9%

The Rangers sit one game behind the Guardians in the wild-card race, but they've lost three straight games and risk being swept by the rival Astros on Wednesday night. As mentioned above, the season-ending series between Texas and Cleveland could serve as an elimination round—though at this point even the winner isn’t guaranteed to qualify for the postseason.

The Rangers need to make sure they're still in position to potentially get into the playoffs by the time that series arrives on Sept. 26. Prior to that, they take on the Marlins and Twins, and not getting the most out of those series against teams in the bottom half of the standings would be a major failure on the part of the Rangers.

As a team, the Rangers rank 24th with a .664 OPS over the last 15 days. Adolis Garcia will need to do his part following his return from injury. Since re-entering the lineup Sunday, Garcia has just one hit in nine at-bats. He's had a disappointing year overall, logging a .677 OPS, but his team will need him to play up to his usual standards if they want to end the year on a high note.

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks (77–76), 2 GB

Remaining schedule: vs. PHI (3), vs. LAD (3), @ SD (3)
FanGraphs playoff odds: 5.3%

Arizona is within striking distance of the Mets, who are clinging onto the final wild-card spot in the National League. The Diamondbacks had won four in a row before losing in extra innings to the fellow playoff-chasing Giants on Wednesday—wasting nine innings of one-hit ball by Brandon Pfaadt—dropping them to just one game above .500.

The D-Backs have an off day to recover before confronting a tall task this weekend against the Phillies, who have already clinched the NL East but are still trying to overtake the Brewers for home-field advantage in the NL playoffs. And the difficult schedule doesn't subside there, with the D-Backs slated to close out the year against the Dodgers and Padres, two teams fighting to improve their playoff seeding and win the NL West. If they can get some good results against teams they're plenty familiar with, they could find themselves playing in October. It will be anything but easy, though.

One player the Diamondbacks could use a bit more from of late is Ketel Marte. The standout second baseman has a 72 WRC+ over the last month and has a .185 batting average across 13 games in September. He's one of the best hitters in baseball when he's locked in at the plate, and fans in Arizona will be hoping he can return to form down the stretch with a playoff spot still up for grabs.

Cincinnati Reds (76–76), 2.5 GB

Remaining schedule: vs. CHC (4), vs. PIT (3), @ MIL (3)
FanGraphs playoff odds: 4.7%

If the Reds end up missing out on a playoff spot by a game or two, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves after being swept by the A’s last weekend. Cincinnati did recover to take two of three from the Cardinals this week, but the club must lock in entering the home stretch.

Luckily for the Reds, they end their season against the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers—three division rivals without as much to play for. Chicago just punched its ticket to the playoffs Wednesday and may take its foot off the gas pedal a bit, as Milwaukee might in the season’s final series since it should have the NL Central wrapped up by then. The Pirates have long stopped playing meaningful baseball.

But if the Reds are going to play in the postseason for the first time since 2020, they'll need more from their star players. Elly De La Cruz has slumped of late, and it'll be crucial for him to get back on track. The shortstop is slashing just .175/.266/.246 this month, with three extra-base hits in 57 at-bats. He hasn’t homered since July 31 and has just one home run since the All-Star break, compared to 18 in the first half.

If De La Cruz can't get right at the plate, the Reds will have a difficult time finding the run support they need to take down some of their tough opponents to close out the year, even if their division rivals aren’t faced with the same do-or-die situation.

San Francisco Giants (76–76), 2.5 GB

Remaining schedule: @ LAD (4), vs. STL (3), vs. COL (3)
FanGraphs playoff odds: 2.5%

After winning their first four games in September, the Giants have faltered a bit, and are now losers of five of their last seven games. They're a half-game behind the Diamondbacks after losing a midweek series to Arizona and now find themselves on level ground with the Reds. They end the season with matchups against the Dodgers, Cardinals and Rockies, all teams they've already played against this month.

When trading for Rafael Devers earlier this year, the expectation was that the team could contend for the playoffs. Despite that, the Giants struggled after the acquisition and ended up being sellers at the trade deadline. If they're to get over this final hurdle and make it to the postseason, they'll need Devers to step up and play like the superstar they acquired him to be.

The lefty slugger has a .661 OPS this month with a .190/.299/.362 slash line. He has just five hits in his last 40 at-bats, and is without a home run during that span. The Giants need Devers to find himself at the plate over the next two weeks, or else their chances of playing in October will quickly fade.