Earning a spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame may be more challenging than ever after the induction method’s change in 2024.
Beginning that year, every candidate in both the Modern-Era and Senior pool must receive 80% of the vote. With there being 50 voters on the Selection Committee (a group of media representatives and at-large delegates), that means a minimum of 40 votes. The only other way to earn induction is to be in the top three of vote-getters as a Modern-Era candidate, as every class must have at least three such enshrinees (up to five) and one Senior (up to three).
The problem? The math makes it almost impossible for borderline candidates to get into Canton.
Once the Selection Committee votes on which candidates are the 15 finalists for a given class, they then vote again to narrow it down to 10, and subsequently select the final seven candidates. From there, all 50 voters select their five Hall of Famers, resulting in a total of 250 votes.
In a class like 2028, when Tom Brady and J.J. Watt are going to be potentially unanimous selections on the first ballot, that means there are just 150 votes for five candidates, with each needing at least 40 votes.
While the bylaws require at least one other candidate to earn enshrinement, good luck getting a fourth or fifth candidate through. A prime example is the receiver logjam, with players such as Torry Holt, Steve Smith Sr. and Reggie Wayne all splitting votes due to similar careers and statistics.
Another player who could have a long road ahead? Eli Manning.
Manning won two Super Bowls, including Super Bowl XLII, when he and the Giants stunned the undefeated Patriots. Still, his credentials are borderline, with only four Pro Bowls and zero All-Pro teams in 16 seasons. In 2025, Manning was one of 15 finalists but didn’t make it to the round of 10, showing that while he’s on the radar, he’s not particularly close.
With so many terrific candidates coming up as potential first- or second-ballot Hall of Famers in the next five years, Manning could be squeezed by the voting situation.
So, who makes it into the Pro Football Hall of Fame over the next five years? Let’s take our best shot at predicting the future while keeping in mind the classes likely won’t be more than five or six deep per year.
2026
- Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
- Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
- Luke Kuechly, LB, Carolina Panthers
- Bill Belichick, Coach, New England Patriots
- Ralph Hay, Owner, Canton Bulldogs
Notable first-time eligible players: Brees, Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, Frank Gore, Philip Rivers, Julian Edelman, LeSean McCoy
In this scenario, both Brees and Fitzgerald are first-ballot Hall of Famers. Brees was dominant during his era, winning Super Bowl XLIV with the Saints while throwing for 5,000 yards on five different occasions while leading the NFL in passing on seven occasions. A 13-time Pro Bowler, Brees’s place in history is well-established.
As for Fitzgerald, he ranks second all-time to Jerry Rice with 17,492 receiving yards and sits sixth with 121 receiving touchdowns. An 11-time Pro Bowler, Fitzgerald earned a spot on the 2010s all-decade team.
Beyond Brees and Fitzgerald, Kuechly has an excellent case among Modern-Era candidates. Despite playing only eight seasons due to three concussions over his final three seasons, the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year was also named to the 2010s all-decade team and earned five first-team All-Pro honors.
As for Belichick, he’s a tricky case. He’s a Hall of Famer with eight Super Bowl rings, including six as the head coach of the Patriots, while also notching 302 regular-season wins, trailing only Don Shula and George Halas. Yet, will he get voted in despite a potential return? The voters could wait, or they could give the 73-year-old the ultimate honor.
Then there’s Hay, who was a finalist in 2025 and could finally earn induction as a former owner of the Bulldogs. In 1922, Hay won the NFL title with a 10-0-2 record, allowing only 15 points across 12 games.
2027
- Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
- Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
- Mike Holmgren, Coach, Green Bay Packers
- Ken Anderson, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Notable first-time eligible players: Roethlisberger, Peterson, Gronkowski, Cam Newton, Antonio Brown, Richard Sherman, Eric Weddle, Andrew Whitworth, LeVeon Bell
Roethlisberger is a two-time Super Bowl champion and six-time Pro Bowler, ranks eighth all-time with 418 touchdown passes, has twice led the NFL in passing yards, and is fifth in passing yardage, behind only Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre.
In Peterson’s case, he was the dominant runner of his era, winning MVP honors in 2012 after tearing his ACL the year before. Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards that year, the second-highest figure ever behind Eric Dickerson of the Rams in 1984. Peterson rushed for 1,000 yards eight times, led the NFL in the category three times, and finished with 14,918 rushing yards, fifth all-time.
Gronkowski is sixth all-time in receiving yards for a tight end with 9,286 and also won four Super Bowls playing alongside Tom Brady. One of the best blocking tight ends ever, Gronkowski was a force in the red zone, notching 92 touchdowns, trailing only Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.
With that trio likely to garner a ton of votes, any other Modern-Era finalist might have a tough time breaking through. However, it could be the year for a few Senior and Coach candidates.
Anderson has long been regarded as one of the most notable omissions, having won the 1981 NFL MVP award while also leading the NFL in completion percentage three times and passing yardage twice.
Meanwhile, Holmgren is a Super Bowl-winning coach, earning two rings as an offensive assistant in the 1980s with the 49ers before serving as the head coach for the champion Packers in ’96. Holmgren then got back to the Super Bowl in 2005, losing with the Seahawks.
2028
- Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
- J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans
- Richard Sherman, CB, Seattle Seahawks
- Robert Kraft, Owner, New England Patriots
- Otis Taylor, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Notable first-time eligible players: Brady, Watt, Matt Ryan, Ndamukong Suh, Chandler Jones, A.J. Green
This group will have two first-ballot Hall of Famers who should receive unanimous induction, while a third Modern-Era candidate should get selected on the second ballot.
Brady is the most obvious Hall of Famer in NFL history. He won a record-setting seven Super Bowls with the Patriots and Buccaneers, holds the records for most passing yards (89,214), touchdown passes (649), fourth-quarter comebacks (46), playoff wins (35) and Super Bowl appearances (10), among numerous other marks. A three-time MVP and 15-time Pro Bowler, it’s a safe bet Brady will get 50-of-50 votes.
Watt was limited by injuries throughout his illustrious 13-year career with the Texans and Cardinals. Still, the defensive end posted 114.5 sacks while leading the league twice, was a first-team All-Pro five times, won three Defensive Player of the Year awards between 2012 to ’15, and finished second in the ’14 MVP voting.
Sherman might need to wait a year because the 2027 class is so deep, but he should still gain induction. One of the great zone corners to ever play, Sherman thrived in Seattle’s Cover 3 scheme while amassing 37 interceptions, three first-team All-Pro honors, and a spot on the 2010s all-decade Team. Alongside Darrelle Revis, he was one of the defining corners of the era.
From the Senior Committee, it’s a matter of time for Kraft. Buying the Patriots before the 1993 season, Kraft kept the team in New England, built the Patriots a new stadium, and then went on to win six Super Bowls, reaching a total of 10.
As for Taylor, he’s the overlooked receiver from the great AFL days of the 1960s before the ’70s AFL-NFL merger. The Super Bowl champion led the league with 1,110 receiving yards in ’71 while finishing second in MVP balloting. He was a two-time first-team All-Pro and three-time Pro Bowler for the Chiefs.
2029
- Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams
- Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
- Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis Rams
- Mike Shanahan, Coach, Denver Broncos
- Maxie Baughan, LB, Los Angeles Rams
Notable first-time eligible players: Donald, Kelce, Julio Jones, Fletcher Cox, Matthew Slater, David Bakhtiari
There are some intriguing names eligible for 2029, including receiver Julio Jones, center Jason Kelce and corner Patrick Peterson. Still, this could be a year where the logjam breaks a bit.
The only sure-fire first-ballot candidate is Donald, who is arguably the greatest defensive tackle of all time. Playing 10 seasons with the Rams, Donald was a 10-time Pro Bowler, an eight-time first-team All-Pro, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year and a Super Bowl champion. Donald also totaled 111 sacks, the second-most by a defensive tackle behind John Randle.
Witten and Holt are both very deserving and finally break through here. Witten is an 11-time Pro Bowler who ranks second only to Tony Gonzalez in receiving yards for a tight end with 13,046. Witten was also a four-time All-Pro, including two first-team honors.
As for Holt, he starred for the Rams, winning Super Bowl XXXIV while totaling eight 1,000-yard seasons, leading the NFL in receiving yards twice, receptions once, and ranking 17th all-time with 13,382 receiving yards despite only playing 11 seasons.
From the Senior Committee, Shanahan is a question of when and not if. The offensive mastermind won a Super Bowl with the Niners in 1994 as an offensive coordinator before earning two rings as a head coach with the Broncos in ’97 and ’98.
Baughan is one of the biggest snubs ever, having been a nine-time Pro Bowler with the Eagles and Rams while making six All-Pro teams (one first-team).
2030
- Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
- Jason Kelce, C, Philadelphia Eagles
- Zack Martin, G, Dallas Cowboys
- Roger Craig, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Notable first-time eligible players: Martin, Tyrann Mathieu, Jason Peters, Tyron Smith, Frank Ragnow, Terron Armstead, Derek Carr
The big question here is whether Martin gets in on the first ballot, but there’s enough of a case for it to happen. If it doesn’t, could Giants quarterback Eli Manning sneak into this group? Perhaps.
Martin was a nine-time Pro Bowler and seven-time first-team All-Pro while missing only two games over his first six seasons. With Dallas, Martin was a member of the 2010s all-decade team and made Pro Bowls 10 years apart, showing the durability of his greatness.
This year could also be a landing spot for Kelce in his second year on the ballot. A star center in Philadelphia for 13 years, Kelce was a six-time first-team All-Pro and seven-time Pro Bowler while reaching two Super Bowls and winning it all in 2018.
Jones should also get in on the second ballot. A star primarily with the Falcons, Jones caught 914 passes for 13,703 yards in his 13-year career, going to seven Pro Bowls while being a five-time All-Pro (twice first-team) selection. If Jones gets in, he likely blocks Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith Sr. for at least another year.
From the Senior pool, Craig would make an excellent addition to the Hall of Fame. Craig was the first player in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards and have 1,000 yards receiving in the same season, doing so in 1985. Craig was a four-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro, while winning the ’88 Offensive Player of the Year for the Super Bowl-winning 49ers. Craig won three championships in the ’80s with San Francisco.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Predicting the Next Five NFL Hall of Fame Classes.