In today’s SI:AM:
🏈 Final NFL mock
⌚ QBs worth waiting for
⛳ Rory returns
Only hours to go
The NFL draft is finally here, and we have a pretty good idea of how the first few picks will play out when Round 1 begins on Thursday night in Green Bay. Miami quarterback Cam Ward is widely expected to be selected with the first pick by the Tennessee Titans, followed by Heisman Trophy-winning two-way star Travis Hunter to the Cleveland Browns, Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter to the New York Giants and LSU left tackle Will Campbell to the New England Patriots. After that, things get murkier. Let’s get into it.
How far will Shedeur Sanders fall?
The latest intel is that neither the Browns nor Giants, the two quarterback-needy teams at the top of the draft, appear likely to take Sanders at No. 2 or 3. Both teams have veteran quarterbacks on the roster who they appear content to have start this season, but they’re surely also looking to upgrade for the right price. After the Giants’ pick, the next team in the draft order without a settled quarterback situation is the New Orleans Saints, who have the ninth pick. (Derek Carr has a shoulder injury that could reportedly keep him out for the season.) If Sanders slips past No. 9, then the next QB-needy team is the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 21.
If Sanders were to drop past the Steelers, then you’re looking at a situation where teams like the Browns and Giants would start to think about trading up to get him at the end of the first round. Given the emphasis franchises place on quarterback when building a team these days, it seems unlikely that Sanders would fall out of the first round, even if he is a flawed prospect. If he’s still on the board late in the first round, it could spark a bidding war among teams looking to trade up.
How many quarterbacks will go in the first round?
One of the primary narratives about this draft class is how weak it is at quarterback. It’s highly probable that Ward and Sanders are the only two passers selected in the first round. The only other candidate to go in the first round is Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss. Dart could be a trade-up target for one of the QB-needy teams that misses out on Sanders, or they could wait to take him in the second round. The benefit of trading back into the first round to take Dart is that the team that selects him would have a fifth-year option on his contract.
Whether or not Dart joins Ward and Sanders in the first round, this is shaping up to be a down year for quarterbacks. Last year’s draft saw five signal-callers go in the first round (Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams), three years after the 2021 draft set a record with six first-round QBs. If Dart doesn’t go in the first round, it would mark just the fourth draft since 2010 that didn’t have at least three first-round quarterbacks.
Will running backs buck current trends?
There’s much more buzz around running backs in this year’s draft than usual. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman Trophy runner-up behind Hunter, is the big name. He’s projected to be a top-10 pick, and if he goes higher than eighth will become the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley in 2018.
But Jeanty isn’t the only likely first-round running back. North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton is also expected to go in the first round after eclipsing the 1,500-yard mark in his final two college seasons. Numerous reports have the Denver Broncos targeting Hampton with their pick at No. 20. Most teams are hesitant to take a running back in the first round, but Denver is the perfect candidate to use its top choice on a runner. The Broncos ranked in the middle of the pack last season in rushing and lost their leading rusher, Javonte Williams, to the Dallas Cowboys in free agency.
If Hampton does go in the first round, it would be just the second time since 2018 that multiple running backs were selected in the first round of the draft. (Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were first-rounders in ’23.) There’s also a smaller chance that Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, a four-year starter for the Buckeyes, could be a first-round pick. If Jeanty, Hampton and Henderson all go on the first day, it’d be just the third time since 2010 that three running backs were selected in the first round (after the ’12 and ’18 drafts).
Will there be a big blockbuster trade?
Teams always swap picks throughout the draft, moving up or down to snag their preferred player or maximize value. But every so often, we also get the rare draft day blockbuster trade involving a star player. It last happened in 2022, when the Philadelphia Eagles traded their first-round pick to the Titans for receiver A.J. Brown and the Baltimore Ravens traded receiver Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals.
Now, as the draft gets underway, another big-name receiver is on the trade market. Dolphins general manager Chris Grier has been open about the fact that the team is trying to deal defensive back Jalen Ramsey, but he also didn’t rule out the possibility of trading Tyreek Hill. Grier said last week that he’d consider a deal for Hill if another team offered two first-round picks.
Other players who could be on the move include Kirk Cousins and Ravens tight end Mark Andrews. Cousins is unhappy in Atlanta after losing the starting job to Penix last season and Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta did not rule out the possibility of trading Andrews when asked this week about mounting speculation that the veteran could be moved.
The best of Sports Illustrated
- Our final mock draft is out in the world. Here’s how Albert Breer thinks the first round will play out.
- As a refresher, here’s Daniel Flick’s ranking of the top 200 players in the draft.
- While this year’s quarterback class is underwhelming, Bryan Fischer explains why next year’s crop of QBs is worth the wait.
- Fischer also broke down the latest developments in the historic House settlement, which hit a roadblock on Wednesday.
- Rory McIlroy is returning to the PGA Tour this week for the first time since his Masters win. Bob Harig reports on what McIlroy had to say in first meeting with the press since winning at Augusta.
- Jimmy Butler will undergo an MRI on Thursday after leaving Game 2 against the Rockets with a hip injury.
- Albany men’s basketball coach Dwayne Killings has an unorthodox idea to deal with the transfer portal.
The top five…
… things I saw last night:
5. Jalen Green’s big dunk and the Rockets’ bench’s reaction.
4. Valeri Nichushkin’s slick stick handling for an impressive goal.
3. Kristaps Porzingis’s free throws after getting bloodied by a stray elbow.
2. Tyler Seguin’s overtime game-winner to give the Stars a 2–1 lead over the Avalanche.
1. Oneil Cruz’s mammoth 463-foot homer to dead center.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | The Biggest Questions Ahead of the NFL Draft .