It won’t be easy, but it’s not impossible. 

For the first time in his career, Lionel Messi will take on a former club as he leads his underdog Inter Miami CF against the UEFA Champions League winners, Paris Saint-Germain, on Sunday in the Round of 16 at the FIFA Club World Cup. 

While Miami have already made history after becoming the first MLS team to beat a European side in a competitive match, having beaten FC Porto 2–1 in the group stage, the matchup against the European champions is an entirely different task. 

According to Opta’s supercomputer, there is an 80% chance that PSG come out as the winners, and that may even be a conservative estimate, given the perceived gap between a mid-table MLS side and one of the best teams in the world. 

Although it might be unlikely, Sports Illustrated takes a look at three key factors Miami must hit on if they want to pull off a generational upset. 

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Botafogo’s Plan and Finishing the Moment

Inter Miami - PSG
Tadeo Allende’s play on the wing could be a key factor to an Inter Miami goal off a counterattack. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

When playing in MLS, Inter Miami are used to having a lot of possession. Yet, they’ve adjusted to facing tougher competition so far at the Club World Cup, and will need to apply all of those lessons when they come up against PSG. 

Luckily for Mascherano, however, Botafogo laid out a plan on how to beat PSG in the group stage. There are two key parts: a quick break and finishing the one or two chances that may fall your way. 

Even the best teams give up a moment in a defensive lapse, and Miami should expect to have a few chances against PSG. But, how could those come to be?

Leaving set-piece opportunities aside, Miami has shown their ability to score off counterattacks and well-timed balls threaded past high-lying defensive setups, as PSG have tended to play with at the Club World Cup. 

When PSG did so against Botafogo, they were caught out by a slipped-through ball, a goal that tactically resembles Tadeo Allende’s 16th-minute marker against Palmeiras, as displayed in the clips below. 

Finding those opportunities won’t be consistent for the Herons, but it is a proven way for teams to create without possession and from open play. Now, if they get one or two of them, they will have to finish, as even just one missed chance could surrender any hope they have in the matchup. 

Consistent Defensive Patience

Inter Miami - PSG
Noah Allen has found his form at left back at is key to Inter Miami's defense and transition. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

For a team that struggled so much at the start of the MLS season, Inter Miami have figured out how to stand out defensively. 

Now, as they take on their biggest game in club history, it will prove vital, in a way few would have expected when they parachuted down the MLS standings and crashed out of the Concacaf Champions Cup. 

Through their three group stage games, Miami maintained a relatively consistent four-man backline, committing players to specific positions, which had not been the case in the MLS season to that point. 

Primarily using Tomas Avilés and Maxi Falcon at center back, Miami sat back deeper than they had in the past, allowing them more time on the ball and opportunities for wingers and fullbacks – mainly Noah Allen and Marcelo Weigandt – to launch attacks in wide areas. 

At the same time, allowing the ball to fall deeper into their half gives more time for an elite distributor like Sergio Busquets to control and create, while his midfield partner takes on more defensive duties. 

The tactical shift has made Miami a more defensively aware and consistent side, while also allowing their attack to be less frantic, much to the benefit of every player on the pitch, particularly those in the twilight of their careers. 

Mascherano may still be in the early stages of his coaching career, but after a rocky start to his time with the Herons, he may have them playing within a system that could push an upset on PSG. 

A Signature Lionel Messi Moment 

The most apparent way Inter Miami can win is not one that can be planned: A signature moment from Messi. 

While he is not the same player at 38 years old that he was at the height of his powers, his ability to create opportunities out of nothing remains, albeit a step slower than in the past. 

Against FC Porto, he showcased his ability to score a perfect free kick. Throughout the tournament, he has put himself in advantageous positions to either draw defenders towards him or hit passes for players such as Telasco Segovia, Luis Suárez and Allende to run onto. 

Unlike many aging players, Messi’s skill set and touch have not waned. At most, his runs and ability to beat defenders solo have become slower, but he has adapted to benefit his Miami side, all leading to his all-time club-leading 50 goals. 

If Miami get a free kick or he finds a little sliver of space, watch out. Especially, given he will be playing against a former team for the first time, and will have the world’s eyes analyzing his every move, to assess if he still has elite-level capabilities in his waning moments in football.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Difficult But Not Impossible: How Inter Miami Can Beat PSG at the FIFA Club World Cup.

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