Can Journalism End the Kentucky Derby Chaos?

The media needs a win these days, and Journalism is here to provide it.

Journalism, the 3–1 Kentucky Derby favorite, is ready to break the streak of weirdness that has gripped America’s biggest horse race for the last six years. It’s time for a return to form with a horse who looms over this field as the best and most versatile option. That’s why my $100 betting strategy will key on Journalism.

Before diving into a plan that will make us all rich, let’s pause for the annual disclaimer: The Kentucky Derby is notoriously difficult to bet. The field is massive (20 horses), the animals are young (barely 3 years old), and they’re running further than they’ve ever gone before (1 1/4 miles). It’s a recipe for unpredictability.

But this year, the predictable is the play.

Journalism, named by co–owner Aron Wellman, who was the sports editor of the school paper at Beverly Hills High School, has been extremely impressive in his five-race career. After finishing third in his first race, he won four straight, including dazzling performances in the San Felipe Stakes and overcoming some traffic trouble in the Santa Anita Derby. His Beyer Speed Figures for those two races are the highest for any horse in the race.

Journalism should prevail as long as there is no pilot error from jockey Umberto Rispoli, a Derby neophyte with just two previous starts in the Run for the Roses. Thus, the first bet from my $100 bankroll is $30 to win on the son of Curlin. The intrigue starts in deciphering who follows him under the wire.

I believe that the pace will be very fast—a 45-second half mile and 1:10 at the three-quarter-mile mark, which will be borderline suicidal for those sucked into it.

Everything about Bob Baffert's trainee Citizen Bull says that he will be flying early—his last workout was extremely fast, he's been keyed up in morning training, and he's doomed by the No. 1 post position. So I expect Citizen Bull to be gunning out of the gate to avoid being buried. He may get clear, but he’ll be going too fast and then falling apart in the stretch, taking everyone who follows closely down with him.

That will set up the stretch drive for the closers, the most significant of which is 5–1 second choice Sovereignty. Sandman, the Arkansas Derby winner at 6–1 odds, should also be running late. Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square will also be there, but he might be a few steps behind the others.

The second bet is a three-horse, $5 exacta box with Journalism, Sovereignty and Sandman. Cost: $30. (A box means that if two of those three horses finish 1–2, in either order, the ticket is a winner.)

Which longer shots could hit the board and juice up the payouts? There are many candidates, which is a problem.

Baeza, who only drew into the race Thursday with the scratch of Rodriguez, gave Journalism all he could handle in the Santa Anita and keeps improving every race—he’s 12–1. Let's drop Burnham Square in here, also at 12–1. Final Gambit, winner of his last two races against lesser competition, could sneak in—he’s 30–1. (Grande, trained by Todd Pletcher, would have been an attractive choice here at 20–1 before being scratched Friday morning.)

Thus, we're taking a swing at the following $1 trifecta wheel: Journalism in the first position, with Sovereignty, Sandman, Baeza, Grande and Final Gambit in the second and third positions. The cost: $20.

Then, let’s back that up with Journalism in the second position and all five other contenders in the first and third positions.

That’s another $20.

That’s $100. But I’ll also take a $2 flyer to win on Flying Mohawk, the horse owned by former star baseball player Jayson Werth, at 30–1. Flying Mohawk is flying under the radar, but he’s caught my eye in the morning training and seems to be telling me that I’ll regret not making a minimum bet on him if the streak of improbable winners continues.

Go to the betting windows with confidence. But don’t blame me if this entire plan fails miserably.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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