It’s been a summer of soccer novelty in the United States in 2025, with FIFA’s revamped Club World Cup succeeded by an altered Leagues Cup.
The competition is new in inception, starting out in 2019, yet has already undergone considerable evolution. The 2025 iteration is following UEFA’s lead, with a Swiss model introduced for Phase One.
Lionel Messi announced himself to the U.S. by inspiring Inter Miami to Leagues Cup glory two summers ago, and the Argentine, off the back of an impressive Club World Cup, is aiming to take the Herons, recently buoyed by the arrival of Rodrigo De Paul from Atlético Madrid, deep into the competition once more.
We’re two matchdays in, which means one remains. Miami’s unbeaten start to the tournament means they’re in with a shout of advancing into the knockout stages along with seven other MLS and Liga MX outfits.
Here’s how Inter Miami can qualify for the 2025 Leagues Cup quarterfinals.
How Inter Miami Have Fared in Leagues Cup So Far
The inter-league Phase One means all MLS teams involved in the Leagues Cup are taking on teams from Liga MX, with those competing from the two divisions split into separate leagues. The top four in each progress into the quarterfinals.
Inter Miami, as they did in 2023, have embarked on a dramatic campaign up to this point, with both of their games decided at the very last moment.
Their Matchday 1 victory over Atalas came courtesy of a last-gasp winner from Marcelo Weigandt, before they beat Necaxa on penalties despite losing Lionel Messi to injury inside ten minutes and playing much of the contest with ten men.
The absence of draws in this year’s Leagues Cup meant the game went to penalties, and Miami subsequently triumphed 5–4 in the shootout to earn two points.
The Herons are thus third in the MLS standings of Phase One with five points. Pumas UNAM, a middling Liga MX outfit for the past two decades, are their final opponents, and there are doubts over Messi’s status for the game. The Argentine great has only suffered a “minor” muscle injury, and should be able to feature later in the competition if Miami advance, but the clash with Pumas may arrive too soon.
What Inter Miami Need to Qualify For Leagues Cup Knockout Stages?
Only three MLS teams have been eliminated heading into the final round of fixtures, and Inter Miami can technically be leapfrogged by 11 teams for one of the four qualifying spots.
If the Herons lose to Pumas UNAM or are beaten on penalties (which earns them one point), there’s a very high chance that they fail to progress. Minnesota United, LA Galaxy, Columbus Crew, Orlando City, FC Cincinnati and New York Red Bulls are just a point adrift of Miami in the standings and would likely just need a penalty shootout win (or a win in normal time) to usurp Javier Mascherano’s side.
Colorado Rapids, New York City FC, Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles FC all have three points, and would end Phase One level on points with Miami if the Herons lose and they claim a penalty shootout victory on Matchday 3 themselves. CF Montréal will match Miami’s five-point haul with a win over Puebla, but would surely find themselves out of the top four given that 13 teams currently sit ahead of them in the standings.
A victory over Pumas guarantees Miami a place in the quarterfinals, and a two-point penalty shootout win may also be enough. In that case, they’d end with seven points and can only be matched by Minnesota United, LA Galaxy, Columbus Crew, Orlando City, FC Cincinnati and the New York Red Bulls. However, these six teams must win their respective matches in 90 minutes and earn three points.
Any team that finishes with seven points would’ve claimed the same number of wins in normal time, which is the first tiebreaker, so their place in the standings will then be decided by goal difference. Inter Miami (+1) are in a precarious position from that perspective, as all the teams on four points either currently match or have a superior goal difference.
The Herons could overtake Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers with a penalty shootout win, but the top two in the MLS half of the Phase One table would both need to lose on Matchday 3. The Sounders host Tijuana, while Portland have a tricky game against América.
In short, Miami’s small goal difference means that, in all likelihood, only a victory inside 90 minutes will suffice for them if they want to progress into the knockouts. Otherwise, they’ll need a lot (too many) favors from their Mexican friends.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Inter Miami Can Qualify For Leagues Cup Knockout Stages.