Inside the Numbers of MLB’s Surprising Second Half Trends

The 2025 MLB season is fully into its stretch run, and the playoff picture has solidified. While a number of the usual suspects will likely reach the playoffs, a lot has happened since the All-Star break.

When digging into the numbers of baseball's second half, several surprising, even shocking trends have emerged. The Brewers have emerged as a powerhouse. Kyle Schwarber and Nick Kurtz have been the second-half MVPs. Meanwhile, a number of teams and players are doing things you wouldn't expect.

What follows is a look inside the numbers of the surprising trends across baseball since the All-Star break.

14.3 — fWAR by Blue Jays hitters, best in baseball, to go along with a team-wide 131 wRC+, again, the best in baseball.

8.7 — fWAR produced by the Dodgers pitchers, best in MLB since the All-Star break, a full 1.5 points higher than the Reds and Phillies, who sit in second place. Their team FIP (3.37) is also tops by a wide margin over the Pirates (3.73).

197 — Runs scored by the Astros, which ranks 29th in MLB. Only the Cardinals (185) are worse. Houston's hitters have a collective fWAR of 5.2, worst in baseball among contending teams in the second half.

265 — Runs by the White Sox since the break. That ranks fifth in baseball.

287 — Runs by the Brewers since the break, best in baseball.

3.57 — Team ERA for the Brewers, second-best in baseball behind the Dodgers. So Milwaukee is scoring the most runs and has the second-lowest team ERA since the break.

4.93 — ERA of Mets pitchers since the break, 24th in baseball and worst among contending teams. Their collective WHIP (1.41) ranks 26th and is also the worst among contenders.

14 — Second-half home runs by Trent Grisham, which is second on the Yankees. Aaron Judge's 11 home runs since the break are actually tied for fourth on the team with Jazz Chisholm. (Giancarlo Stanton leads the club with 16.)

20 — Second-half home runs for Kyle Schwarber to lead MLB. The Phillies slugger is slashing .230/.348/.592 with 54 RBIs and a wRC+ of 154 since the All-Star break. The pending free agent seems to have earned himself an obscene amount of money with his performance over the past few months.

21 — Stolen bases by (*checks notes...*) Juan Soto... to lead all of baseball since the All-Star break. Weird. Soto had 25 total stolen bases over the past three years entering 2025 and had never topped 12 in a season before. He only stole 11 bases in 96 games in the first half.

33 — Wins for the Brewers since the All-Star break, best in baseball.

154 — Second half wRC+ for Rafael Devers, who is slashing .269/.367/.538 since the break with 14 home runs. After a slow start in San Francisco, he has found his groove offensively.

220 — Second half wRC+ by Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz, by far the best in baseball. Kurtz is slashing .361/.474/.715, his OPS of 1.189 leads baseball, as does the 3.0 fWAR he has produced.

2.5 — fWAR for Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez, best among MLB starting pitchers since the break. He is 5–3 with a 2.67 ERA and a sparkling 2.13 FIP. With Zack Wheeler out for the season, he's Philadelphia's best starter heading into the playoffs.

0.84 — ERA for Cubs rookie Cade Horton, best among qualified starting pitchers since the break. Horton has a 7–1 record in 10 starts, has produced 1.6 fWAR, and is just what Chicago needed after losing Justin Steele for the season.

1.74 — ERA for Paul Skenes since the All-Star break. His 2.11 FIP is the best among qualified pitchers since the break, and he's averaging 11.37 strikeouts per nine innings. If anything, the Pirates star has gotten better as his second season has gone along.

99.5 — Average fastball velocity for Hunter Greene since the break. The best among MLB starting pitchers. The Reds ace is 2–1 with a 2.35 ERA since the break.

101.6 — Average fastball velocity for Padres reliever Mason Miller since the break, best among all MLB pitchers. He's 0–0 with two saves and a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings in that time and is averaging an eye-popping 15.5 strikeouts per nine innings. This one may not be surprising, but like Skenes, he appears to be getting better as his second full season goes along. m