After a Masters for the ages, we speed ahead to the second major of the season where arguably the best field in all of golf is set to tee off later this week. Here to break it down we have once again convened a panel of Sports Illustrated golf writers and editors: Bob Harig, John Schwarb, Matt Vincenzi, Max Schreiber and Jeff Ritter, along with Iain MacMillan, Cody Williams and Brian Giuffra, three betting experts from our partners at SI Betting and FanSided. On to Quail Hollow.
Rory McIlroy enters fresh off a Masters win and is now in a virtual dead heat with Scottie Scheffler as the betting favorite. He is newly unburdened, but is he the right choice to be the favorite?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: No doubt. Current form, unburdened mindset, and his past history at Quail Hollow—where he won last year at the PGA Tour stop—make this an easy call.
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Based on his historical performance at Quail Hollow (four wins, a runner-up, holds the course record) and his form this season, yes, he deserves to be right where he is on the oddsboard. That doesn’t mean I’m betting him …
John Schwarb, SI Golf: No question. Scottie Scheffler put himself back into the conversation with the Byron Nelson romp, but that can’t leapfrog McIlroy’s body of work this season plus the course history at Quail Hollow.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Not only is Rory going to play unburdened now that he’s fresh off a win at the Masters, but he has a significant advantage over Scottie Scheffler in this event. McIlroy is the king of Quail Hollow, winning here four times, while Scheffler has never competed here in an individual event. Scheffler has typically opted out of playing at the Wells Fargo Championship, so his only experience here was at the 2022 Presidents Cup. His course experience is enough to justify McIlroy’s odds as co-favorite.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: He should absolutely be the favorite. With the weight of the Grand Slam off his back, he should be freed up to attack a golf course where he’s won four times. With that being said, golf is rarely that simple. Just because he’s the rightful favorite doesn’t mean fans should expect a second consecutive major championship win.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Yes. He’s the world’s best player this year, and that was true even before the Masters. Plus, with his success at Quail Hollow it’s hard to go against him this week.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Pretty adamant and easy yes here from me. Everyone’s already mentioning Rory’s dominance at Quail Hollow throughout his career. That’s certainly at play but McIlroy has also simply been as good as Scheffler throughout the bag this year while also finishing in the winner’s circle more often. With the major championship monkey off his back, he deserves to occupy this space with Scottie.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Yes, the oddsmakers have this one correct. Rory has undeniably been the best player this year and deserves to be the favorite. Now, will he actually win it? Let’s further explore here.
There’s a sizable odds gap between the top two players and the rest. Would you take Rory and Scottie or the field?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: As tempting as it might seem, the field is the better bet, especially at the PGA, the deepest field of the majors and the one where there are so many opportunities for someone we are not thinking about to emerge.
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Just based on the odds of having 150-plus players versus two, I’ll take the field. Rory and Scottie are a step above the competition overall. However, in a one-week sample and with arguably the deepest field on the golf calendar, my guess is an unexpected group of challengers will emerge and one of them will win this week.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: If you made a foursome with Rory, Scottie, JT and Bryson, I might be tempted to take that at a plus price against the field. But a field bet vs. two guys—even those two guys—is foolish in a major.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: I would take Rory and Scottie in this spot. Long shots and dark horses can compete at the Masters and the British Open with experience and artistry playing a big role in those events. The PGA Championship and U.S. Open, especially at a course like Quail Hollow, don’t have that same level of variance. Bryson DeChambeau might be the only golfer who can truly compete with McIlroy and Scheffler this week.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: This is an easy one for me: the field. The talent pool is loaded this week and plenty of top players are rounding into form. In McIlroy’s case, winning back-to-back majors is incredibly hard. Scheffler has yet to play at Quail Hollow outside of the 2022 Presidents Cup where he was among the lowest-scoring Americans. Of course, he’s talented enough to win anywhere, anytime, but there’s more value on the field.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: The field. Yes, McIlroy and Scheffler are the two best players on the planet, but there’s also a bevy of stars that can get the job done in this deep, deep field.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: I feel quite similarly to John in that the top of the board behind Scottie and Rory has me intrigued, particularly Bryson, JT and even Rahm. However, I’m still going Scottie and Rory. They often look like they’re playing a different sport than the rest of the field, even the rest of the best in the world. While we could still see another winner, betting on Scottie and Rory is a safe proposition at this point.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: The field is always the smarter bet when it comes to these sorts of props.
Bryson DeChambeau finished second at last year's PGA and contended last month at Augusta. Is he LIV Golf's best hope again here?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: Yes, simply based on form and his ability to contend in four of the last five major championships. That’s not to say that Jon Rahm, who is due for a better performance, or Brooks Koepka or Tyrrell Hatton won’t be contenders. But it’s hard to go against Bryson.
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: After a poor overall showing in terms of competing at the Masters for LIV, I think a few of their stars will be around the top of the leaderboard this week. DeChambeau should be one of them. I think Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann and Brooks Koepka could all be there, too. But one guy who has my attention is Patrick Reed at +9500 (FanDuel). I get the feeling he’s desperate to force his way onto the Ryder Cup team and the only way he can guarantee himself a spot is with more strong finishes at the majors. He plays his best golf when he’s motivated to prove people wrong.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: Yes, he’s the best hope. Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm know their reputations are built on these weeks and not piling up top-10s in LIV, but I can’t put cash behind that. Love Brian’s shout-out on Reed but the question is who is the best hope and that’s still Bryson.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Absolutely. Quail Hollow is all about elite driving, and DeChambeau is the best driver on the planet right now. If we had seen better form from Jon Rahm, I’d put him in the mix as well, but DeChambeau’s recent form and course fit can’t be ignored.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: He’s LIV’s best hope this week and it isn’t particularly close. This isn’t a knock on the other LIV players in the field, but Bryson has shown since the start of 2024 that he’s one of the best major championship performers on the planet. I’d be extremely surprised if he didn’t end up contending this week at a golf course he’s perfectly suited for.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Probably. He’s played the best in the majors of any LIV player in the last year, and success in LIV events hasn’t necessarily translated to success in majors (ahem, Jon Rahm). Therefore, Bryson has earned the right to be the favorite of any LIVer, but Rahm and Koepka shouldn’t be counted out.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Is he the best hope? Yes. Quail Hollow fits DeChambeau’s skill set to perfection. At the same time, he’s not the only LIV player who has a chance. The venue should also fit Jon Rahm, who has been playing well enough outside of majors to contend. Don’t overlook Patrick Reed either, who has a stellar history at this venue.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: The short answer is yes. The long answer is, yes he is.
Like all majors the PGA offers an array of prop bets. What’s one prop you’re on this week?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: Corey Conners to be the top Canadian. An elite ball striker who struggles on the greens, he seems to be in the mix a lot at the biggest tournaments.
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: I’ll be parlaying a bunch of players to miss the cut. That list includes Dustin Johnson, Max Homa, Phil Mickelson and Talor Gooch. Depending on the odds, I will also bet a few individually too.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: Tommy Fleetwood is +300 to finish in the top 10 (DraftKings), a bet that would have cashed in five of the last 12 majors dating to the 2022 PGA. Just feels like he’s gonna keep hanging around without ever actually winning.
Iain McMillan, SI Betting: While I won’t be betting on him to win due to this likely being a chalky leaderboard on Sunday, I love Taylor Pendrith to both finish inside the top 20 and finish as the top Canadian. Driving is his strong suit, and he’s a perfect course fit for Quail Hollow, evidenced by his T10 finish at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship. His recent form is a cause for concern, but the course fit is too good to ignore.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: Eugenio Chacarra top 40 (+180): At one point, Chacarra was the second-ranked amateur in the world behind Ludvig Åberg. The Spaniard decided to take a risk and join LIV, which didn’t necessarily work out, although he did win LIV Bangkok in 2022. This season Chacarra earned his membership on the DPWT with a win at the Hero Indian Open. Since then, he’s finished T4 and T11 in two starts. In my opinion, Chacarra is the best player on the DP World Tour and is one of the most talented drivers in the world. Quail Hollow rewards players for being long and straight off the tee. A top 40 at almost 2-to-1 odds is most definitely in play.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: For the Masters, I predicted a playoff — and I was right. So I’ll ride the hot hand here.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: I already mentioned Patrick Reed, but he’s sitting north of 2-to-1 to finish top 20 right now and I’m all over that. He tied for runner-up in 2017 at the PGA played at Quail Hollow and had two top 10s thereafter on the regular PGA Tour schedule before the move to LIV. After quietly going solo third at the Masters, I think he’s going to shock some people because he’s not the prototypical course fit.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I like Giuffra’s picks to miss the cut, and since no one has said it yet, a reminder that few things are more fun to pull for than an anytime ace, currently +135 on DraftKings.
Given the robust history of Quail Hollow as a major championship venue and PGA Tour site, we have a lot of data on the types of players that perform well. What stats have your attention?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: To me it’s more about who is playing well an having some confidence going in. Rory, obviously. Bryson. Scottie. All of these guys have had success of late and are familiar with Quail Hollow, not the usual approach to the majors outside of the Masters. Xander has finished second at Quail twice but is his game back? Justin Thomas won recently and won a PGA there. Those are the names that stick out.
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Shots-gained off the tee, shots-gained approach, and shots-gained total are the ones I focus mostly on for Quail Hollow. Within them, driving accuracy and proximity to the hole stand out. Scrambling is always important on a course where hitting the greens is hard so I’ll look at that too, though the first three are my guiding light in the early research.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: For majors I still think you start at the green and work back to the tee, so I’m looking at strokes-gained putting and around the green … and what do you know, Rory McIlroy is ninth and 33rd in those this season.
Iain McMillan, SI Betting: Driving, driving and driving. Quail Hollow has proven time and time again that strong play off the tee is what’s going to give a golfer a leg up on the competition. It’s what Rory McIlroy has won here four times and why Team USA dominated the Presidents Cup that was hosted at this course. If you’re thinking about betting on a golfer who is short off the tee, don’t.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: Proximity from 200+ will be an important statistic for me this week. Quail Hollow is a beast of a golf course that will require plenty of long irons into the greens. Additionally, three of the four par 3s are over 200 yards.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Strokes-gained off the tee is the obvious one. And McIlroy led the field last year in that stat at the Wells Fargo en route to winning. However, the fact that he has won at Quail four times is likely a better indicator of how McIlroy will fare this week—and the same goes for any other player who has succeeded at Quail in the past.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Strokes-gained off the tee, as has been mentioned, is a huge factor with the advantage gained from distance at Quail Hollow, but I’m also looking quite a bit at proximity from 175+ yard approaches. With it being a long course, that could be a deciding factor in making some wagers this week.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I like riding hot hands into majors and also think the guys here are right to pay attention to tee-box prowess. Blend them together I think you get a solid short-list of contenders.
What long shot, 60-1 or longer, could surprise this week?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: Max Homa is quite the flyer based on his recent play but he’s won twice at Quail Hollow, did tie for 12th at the Masters and continues to say he’s hitting it better than ever at home while struggling to bring it to the course.
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Sepp Straka is fresh off a win, +6000 (FanDuel) and checks all the statistical boxes I mentioned above. Fifth in SG: T2G, second in SG: Approach and 62nd in SG: OTT, this course suits him well. He was eighth at the 2024 Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow too.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: I’m bullish on Daniel Berger’s resurgence, he’s 16th in FedEx Cup points with nothing worse than a T30 since the Farmers in January including a T21 at the Masters. At 100-1 on DraftKings, he’s worth a couple shekels.
Iain McMillan, SI Betting: Based on what I wrote above about how important driving distance is, consider Min Woo Lee who’s sitting around 90-1 to win this week. He’s sixth on the PGA Tour in driving distance and he already has a win this season at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He’s a great course fit who could surprise some people this week.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: Jason Day sat at 100-1 on DraftKings for months and I pulled the trigger. There’s obviously a concern with the neck issues he’s been having that forced him to pull out of last week’s Truist Championship. However, if he’s healthy, I truly believe he can contend with the best in the world at Quail Hollow. The Australian has gotten in the mix at three big events this season (API, Players, Masters) and is clearly going after the most important trophies at this stage of his career
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Taylor Pendrith (+14000). Fifth on Tour in strokes-gained off the tee. Plus, a top 10 last year at Quail. And a Canadian hasn’t won a major since Mike Weir at the 2003 Masters. Do you believe in due?
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Fully with Iain here in that Min Woo at 90/1 caught my eye immediately. There are going to be major venues wherein Lee just doesn’t have the well-rounded game to compete. Quail Hollow for the PGA Championship appears to be the antithesis of that with his prodigious length off the tee and he could find himself firmly in the mix.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Despite being a short hitter and collapsing badly on the final hole of the Truist, Shane Lowry is still playing the best golf of his career and 60-1 odds to win are tempting ... but perhaps he makes the most sense as an early-round leader. If you want to gamble on his health, I agree with Vincenzi that this is a great setup for Jason Day, a previous winner at Quail and currently 70-1.
There can only be one: who lifts the Wanamaker and give us one sentence why.
Bob Harig, SI Golf: I’d be surprised if Scheffler isn’t in the mix but he’s never played a stroke play event at Quail Hollow. Hence, Rory McIlroy is the pick as hard as it is to win back to back majors. He’s played well all year, had a good tune-up at the Truist and loves the course.
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Justin Thomas is +2200 at DraftKings and Bet365 and I’m backing him to win this week. He won the PGA Championship when it was last held at Quail Hollow and has a strong course history here from the former Wells Fargo. You could argue he’s playing the best golf of his career right now. Seventh in strokes-gained approach and ninth in strokes-gained tee to green, the only thing holding him back from being in the Rory-Scottie category is a wayward driver. However, his scrambling is, as always, elite. Make it three Wanamaker trophies for Thomas.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: I picked Rory McIlroy in the April issue of SI, which went to press before McIlroy won the Players Championship and the Masters. Can’t go back on that now, even at a favorite’s price.
Iain McMillan, SI Betting: Bryson DeChambeau. He’s the best driver of the golf ball in the world, which is the most important factor at Quail Hollow, and he’s fresh off a win in the most recent LIV event.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: Bryson DeChambeau: He’s built for major championship golf and is in peak form.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Collin Morikawa. He’s known as one of the game’s best iron players, but despite being 158th on Tour in driving distance, he’s 14th in strokes-gained off the tee and second in driving accuracy. He finished 16th last year at Quail and has been one of the best players in the world this year, even though he hasn’t entered the winner’s circle in ‘25. He gets over the hump this week and earns his third major title.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: The odds are terrible but I don’t care. Rory McIlroy is going to get the Grand Slam talk going by winning the first two majors of the year. Perhaps the narrative seems just a little too perfect, but the stars do appear to be aligning with his form and his track record at this course.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Rory deserves to be the favorite and it’s easy to envision him stepping on the gas now that the Grand Slam is off his back. But the PGA is generally a cozy spot for guys to win their first major, and I will stay with the pick I made for the print magazine this spring: Ludvig Åberg has the game for Quail and after seeing his name on the leaderboard at two Masters, should be ready to take the next step. I'll say he clips Justin Thomas for the Wanamaker.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 PGA Championship Bettors’ Roundtable: Favorites, Sleepers, Props and Best Bets for Quail Hollow.