The NFL’s beauty is in its urgency.
In baseball, the standings are borderline irrelevant until the Fourth of July. In basketball and hockey, 16 teams make the playoffs. But in football, a pair of losses to start the season is seen as a death knell for most teams in their quest to reach the postseason. From 1990 through the end of the 2024 season, only 32 of 279 teams that started 0–2 have made the NFL playoffs.
On that front, there are some very highly thought of teams facing 0–2 in Week 2, including the Chiefs, Lions and Ravens. In Detroit, the Lions and Bears will square off, with the loser dropping to the NFC North cellar, saddled with a pair of divisional defeats. In Kansas City, the Chiefs face the Eagles, who pummeled them in Super Bowl LIX.
However, before we get to teams trying to correct early missteps and what might determine whether they do so, let’s start in the Queen City, where the Jaguars and Bengals are hoping to remain perfect.
Jaguars (1–0) at Bengals (1–0)
Spread: Cincinnati -3.5
Key matchup: Jacksonville’s pressure vs. Joe Burrow
Key stat: The Bengals allowed seven hits on Burrow in Week 1.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
A pair of unbeatens will face off at Paycor Stadium. For Jacksonville, the story was Liam Coen getting a win in his head coaching debut.
To earn another victory, he will have to take a page from the Browns.
Last Sunday, the Bengals went into Cleveland and won 17–16 because of two tipped interceptions from Joe Flacco and two missed kicks (an extra point and a 36-yard field goal) from rookie Andre Szmyt. In the second half, Cincinnati was held to seven yards, primarily because the Browns collapsed Joe Burrow’s pocket, sacking him three times with seven quarterback hits.
The Jaguars need to follow a similar script. In their 26–10 win over the Panthers, Jacksonville had only one sack and five quarterback hits against a suspect Carolina front, but won anyway as Bryce Young threw a pair of picks. Don’t expect Burrow to be so charitable after tossing only 15 interceptions over the past two seasons combined. The combination of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker has to win outside, something they did to the tune of 18.5 sacks in 2024.
Last year, under coordinator Ryan Nielsen, Jacksonville ranked last in blitz percentage at 13.9%. In the first game with Anthony Campanile in that seat, the Jaguars blitzed at 15% while getting pressure on a scant 10% of snaps. Those figures ranked 26th and 23rd, respectively, in Week 1. Of course, Campanile came over from the Packers, who were 31st in blitz rate a season ago, so don’t expect a significant uptick in pressure packages.
If the Jaguars can get home and harass Burrow, they could pull the upset. If not, it’s an enormous ask of the corners to stay with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Verdict: Bengals 27, Jaguars 24
Bears (0–1) at Lions (0–1)
Spread: Detroit -4.5
Key matchup: Both passing games vs. opposing secondaries
Key stat: The Lions didn’t record a single pressure in Week 1.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sept. 14, FOX
Ben Johnson makes his return to Detroit on Sunday in a game both he and his former team need to win after divisional losses last week.
The defining question of this game is which team will find its passing attack first?
In Caleb Williams’s debut with Johnson on Monday Night Football, he began 10-of-10 with a series of short passes and one on-the-run missile to Rome Odunze. After that, Williams struggled with accuracy. In fact, Williams had a bad throw percentage of 25.7%, the highest mark of any quarterback in Week 1, despite having an average pocket time of 2.4 seconds, sixth-highest in football.
Against Detroit, Williams might be able to hold the ball and get away with it if the Lions’ front four is held down as it was by Green Bay in the season opener. In a 27–13 defeat to the Packers, the Lions had zero sacks and two quarterback hits. The Packers were so effective up front that Detroit didn’t record a single pressure on Jordan Love.
As for Jared Goff, he attempted 39 passes in Week 1 and only eight traveled more than 10 yards. His average depth of target was 4.2 yards per attempt, the lowest of all 32 starting quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Bears did a nice job against Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy in his first NFL start, limiting him to 143 yards despite a poor fourth quarter.
On the interior, the Lions are going with a new trio in rookie guard Tate Ratledge and second-year man Christian Mahogany, with Graham Glasgow replacing retired All-Pro center Frank Ragnow. Early returns were poor, as Detroit ran for 2.1 yards per carry and Goff was sacked four times.
Williams and Goff have to find their mojo quickly or face a 0–2 hole.
Verdict: Lions 24, Bears 19
Eagles (1–0) at Chiefs (0–1)
Spread: Philadelphia -1.5
Key matchup: Kansas City’s RBs and TE vs. Philadelphia
Key stat: Travis Kelce has 100 receiving yards once over his last 26 games.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sept. 14, FOX
The Super Bowl LIX rematch doesn’t have the same juice, but there’s plenty at play for the Chiefs.
Kansas City went to Brazil and lost 27–21 to the Chargers, while also losing second-year receiver Xavier Worthy to a dislocated shoulder. Without Worthy and the suspended Rashee Rice, Patrick Mahomes will be throwing to Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton.
In the opener, that trio combined for 17 receptions on 25 targets for 195 yards. If the Chargers can limit Kansas City’s best 11-personnel grouping to 7.8 yards per target, imagine what Philadelphia can do with a top-tier front and a corner group featuring Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
To that point, Travis Kelce and the run game will be key figures. Kelce caught a 37-yard touchdown against Los Angeles but only contributed one other 10-yard catch. In the backfield, Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt each carried five times for 41 combined yards.
The Chiefs ranked 22nd last year with 1,790 rushing yards, an astonishingly low figure for a team that was 15–2 and often playing with leads. The Chiefs also haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since Hunt was a rookie in 2017.
While leaning on Mahomes is obviously wise, it’s gotten to a point where Kansas City struggles to get defenses to play it honestly. We saw that in the Super Bowl, when the Eagles registered six sacks and 11 QB hits. While this Philadelphia defense doesn’t have Josh Sweat and Milton Williams, it does employ Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith against a Chiefs’ offensive line, which gave up nine pressures in Week 1, second only to the Bears.
As for Kelce, he’s gone over the century mark just once in his last 26 regular-season games. While Kelce doesn’t need to rack up 100 yards to be a factor, he’ll need to be a release valve for Mahomes when the inevitable pressure gets home.
If Kansas City can run effectively and get more from its future Hall of Fame tight end, it can even its record. If not, Philadelphia will be 2–0 and get the best of the Chiefs for the third straight time.
Verdict: Eagles 27, Chiefs 23
Buccaneers (1–0) at Texans (0–1)
Spread: Houston -2.5
Key matchup: Bucs’ run game vs. Houston’s front
Key stat: Tampa Bay ranked second in YPC in 2024, but struggled in Week 1.
Date, Time, TV: 7 p.m. ET Sept. 15, ESPN
It’s a doubleheader Monday night, and it starts at NRG Stadium with the Texans and Buccaneers.
For Tampa Bay, the concern is getting the rushing attack going. The Buccaneers held off the Falcons in Week 1, but did almost nothing on the ground with Bucky Irving accounting for 37 yards on 14 carries. This week won’t be any easier, as Houston’s stout front held Kyren Williams and the Rams to 72 yards on 2.9 yards per carry.
With All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs still out with a knee injury, the Buccaneers have to take some pressure off the line by running with Irving. If they can’t, they’ll contend with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter without the threat to slow them down. In Los Angeles, Anderson was everywhere, with three tackles for loss, two QB hits and a sack of Matthew Stafford in Houston’s 14–9 loss.
In 2024, Irving helped Tampa Bay rank second only to the Ravens with 5.3 yards per rush, as the rookie amassed 1,122 yards and eight touchdowns on 5.4 YPC while also catching 47 passes. With Irving forcing defenses to commit, Baker Mayfield had a career year with 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns, earning Pro Bowl honors.
If the Texans can bottle up Irving, Houston can match up with the prolific Buccaneers both in the secondary with Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre, and with their aforementioned edge tandem. But if Irving gets rolling, Houston’s task gets arduous.
Verdict: Buccaneers 22, Texans 16
Chargers (1–0) at Raiders (1–0)
Spread: Los Angeles -2.5
Key matchup: Jesse Minter vs. Chip Kelly
Key stat: The Raiders threw for 362 yards last week, the most since 2022.
Date, Time, TV: 10 p.m. ET Sept. 15, ESPN
The Raiders have a quarterback in Geno Smith, and Jesse Minter must figure out a way to limit him.
In his Silver & Black debut, Smith threw for 362 yards in a 20–13 win over the Patriots. The last time a quarterback threw for that much yardage in a Las Vegas uniform? Week 17 of the 2022 season, when Jarrett Stidham lit up the 49ers.
While Las Vegas would love to get first-round running back Ashton Jeanty going after his 38-yard performance, don’t expect coordinator Chip Kelly to go away from a strength. Against Los Angeles, the Raiders could try to exploit a secondary that allowed the bulk of Kansas City’s 214 second-half yards on only three drives last Friday.
So, the Chargers have to come up with a scheme to halt Smith. Since Minter came over to Los Angeles as the defensive coordinator before the 2024 season, the Chargers have permitted the fewest points per game in the league at 17.8. Much of that success has been predicated on situational football, as last year, Los Angeles ranked first in the red zone and fifth on third down.
Minter’s other task will be harassing the immobile Smith despite being without a star pass rusher. Against the Chiefs, Minter ran a litany of loops and stunts, putting Mahomes under pressure on 19.1% of dropbacks, just below the average of 19.5% from last weekend.
Verdict: Raiders 24, Chargers 23
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Key Matchups That Will Decide Five of the Biggest Week 2 NFL Games.