2025 UEFA Nations League Predictions: Germany vs. Portugal, Spain vs. France

The UEFA Nations League resumes this week as four of the biggest countries in European football battle it out for a spot in Sunday's final.

We may be without a major men’s international tournament this summer, but we certainly won’t be left short as we aim to mitigate the void between the 2024–25 and 2025–26 domestic seasons.

Paris Saint-Germain’s record-breaking triumph in the Champions League final remains fresh in the memory ahead of the latest slate of international action. Before the revamped Club World Cup gets underway in the United States, 2026 World Cup qualifiers are continuing across the globe and the 2024–25 UEFA Nations League is reaching its conclusion.

While not a major competition, the Nations League has bridged the gap between major tournaments and often meaningless friendlies. This is its fourth iteration, with three different winners getting their hands on the trophy so far.

Those three victors are in with a shout of claiming trophy number two this week, but it’s the non-winner who’ll benefit from hosting this year’s finals.

Here’s how Sports Illustrated projects the upcoming Nations League semifinals to play out.

Wednesday, June 4

The last five meetings between these two nations have all arrived at major tournaments. Germany have won all five. Portugal’s previous victory over Die Mannschaft arrived all the way back at Euro 2000 when a Sérgio Conceição hat-trick downed one of the poorest German outfits of modern times.

The Central Europeans have proven to be the Iberians' nemesis since, but Portugal have enjoyed more success on the big stage since Germany were crowned world champions in 2014. Two years later, Fernando Santos led a Cristiano Ronaldo-inspired side to glory at Euro 2016.

Portugal have since been blessed with their most talented crop of players in generations—perhaps ever—but the 'big one' has continued to elude them in the wake of their unlikely success in Paris nine years ago. Santos did lead them to victory in the inaugural edition of the Nations League, and Roberto Martinez has guided Portugal back to the final four six years on.

Extra time was needed to beat Denmark in the quarterfinals, while Germany held off a spirited Italian fightback in the second leg of their tie to advance. They’re eight games unbeaten heading into Wednesday’s final, but Julian Nagelsmann is without several key players for their June outings.

Thursday, June 5

It’s a rematch of the Euro 2024 semifinal on Thursday night, as European champions—and Nations League holders—Spain take on France, who lifted the trophy in 2021.

Les Bleus took the lead in Munich last summer but were pegged back by Luis de la Fuente’s side. Some might regard the fixture as the night Lamine Yamal announced himself to the world, as he scored an outrageous goal from distance—the sort of finish we’ve since grown accustomed to the superstar teenager producing.

Spain required penalties to overcome the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, but those two draws extended their unbeaten run to 18 games. They’re FIFA’s number two ranked side in the world.

France are third and will pose a distinct threat to Spain’s unbeaten record in Stuttgart. However, they too required penalties to reach the final four. Didier Deschamps’s side fought back from a 2–0 first-leg deficit against Croatia before winning 5–4 in the shootout.