Another checkpoint in MLB’s marathon season has come and gone, as the All-Star break is in the rearview mirror. That means it’s nearing crunch time for MLB’s general managers and decision makers, as the trade deadline is both a time of reckoning and a time of action for clubs. And the landscape of the market is already beginning to take shape.
The usual suspects—teams like the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros—will be buyers. Surprising underachievers like the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles could be among the sellers. So, as the market continues to shift over the next week before Thursday’s trade deadline, this iteration of Fact or Fiction will serve as a sort of deadline preview.
The Diamondbacks have played their way from sellers to buyers
Verdict: Fiction
Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen finds himself in a precarious position with the deadline a little over a week away. The Diamondbacks entered play on July 13 sitting at 46–50, 11 ½ games back of first place in the National League West and 6 ½ games back of the third wild card. Since that point, the club has gone 4–1 and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in its first series of the second half.
Diamondbacks players, well aware of the trade deadline tightrope they’re currently walking, have made it their mission to make this decision as tough as possible for Hazen. As of this article’s publishing, the Diamondbacks (50–51) are 5 ½ games back of the third wild card and are chasing four teams. A surge to the third wild card—as they did in 2023 en route to the World Series—isn’t out of the question.
But it’s not going to be easy, especially for a club that has sustained season-ending injuries to ace Corbin Burnes, fellow starter Jordan Montgomery and relievers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez. Starting catcher Gabriel Moreno is out until at least August. Such injuries and the uphill battle they’re facing could compel Hazen to sell. The biggest incentive is that in a market with more buyers than sellers, Arizona could win the day. The D-Backs possess perhaps the league’s most attractive trade chip in third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who leads the NL in home runs and RBIs. Starters Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen could be enticing to rival clubs seeking a rotation upgrade.
Barring another surge up the standings, Arizona’s best course of action is clear: Control this year’s deadline as the premier seller and trade pending free agents like Suarez and Kelly for a robust prospect return that will boost MLB’s 22nd-ranked farm system. Then, retool for 2026 and beyond.
Sandy Alcantara is the best available pitcher
Verdict: Fiction
The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner is a rare breed of ace who has twice pitched 200-plus innings and struck out 200-plus batters in a season. But we’re talking about current skill, not potential, and 2025 has not been kind to the Miami Marlins hurler.
Alcantara, in his first full season since missing all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, has recorded a career-worst 7.14 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and just a 16.7% strikeout rate. Despite the way Alcantara has been pitching, he’s still a former Cy Young Award winner, turns 30 in September and is under club control until 2028. Contending clubs would still jump at the chance to acquire him.
But rival teams may not regard Alcantara as the biggest fish on the trade market. Kelly of the aforementioned Diamondbacks, owns a 3.32 ERA, is tied for fourth in MLB with 12 quality starts and ranks inside the top 10 in innings pitched. Kansas City Royals righthander Seth Lugo boasts a 2.94 ERA in 107 innings. Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks and Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates are also solid options for rotation-needy teams. All of those other options, except for Keller, are also pending free agents, meaning any acquiring team wouldn’t be obligated to pay them past this year.
Those hurlers might not be the brand name that Alcantara is, but they might just be more trustworthy options in a playoff series. And that’s what clubs are seeking most of all.
The Red Sox should deal one of their outfielders
Verdict: Fiction
The Boston Red Sox have a good problem: They have too many outfielders. With 2024 All-Star Jarren Duran, rising stars Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, and No. 1 prospect Roman Anthony, Boston has a bit of a logjam. A perfectly understandable assumption to make, based on the club’s outfield depth, is that Boston would trade from this surplus to upgrade the starting rotation. But the team, according to assistant general manager Paul Toboni, is not viewing their outfield surplus in that way.
“Having a surplus of good players isn't a bad thing," Toboni told ESPN on Tuesday. "The high-end depth is a really good thing. It's not like we're anxious to move away from that.”
And they shouldn’t be. Duran, Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony all rank among the club’s 11 best players in terms of bWAR—even with Anthony not debuting until June 9—and have combined to post 5.7 WAR, the third-most outfield WAR in MLB. In many ways, Boston has its outfielders to thank for its recent surge up the standings and current state of affairs as the American League’s third wild card. Plus, there’s no telling when injuries will strike, as the Red Sox know all too well from the spate of ailments that have plagued its rotation.
If one player was potentially headed out the door via a trade, it would probably be the 28-year-old Duran, given his age and appeal as an All-Star just last season. But Duran (second on the team in stolen bases, tied for 13th in MLB in Statcast’s sprint speed) adds an important speed component to Boston’s lineup. He’s also a leader in the clubhouse, and in the Red Sox’ youthful outfield, where Abreu, Anthony and Rafaela are all 26 years or younger. That kind of leadership is invaluable. The Red Sox don’t need to trade from a surplus when they can use MLB’s third-ranked farm system (preseason) to fill the club’s needs for a postseason push.
The Dodgers should trade for another top starting pitcher
Verdict: Fiction
It might be tempting to say ‘Fact’ to this, given the rash of injuries to the Dodgers’ starting rotation. Every Dodgers starter save for Yoshinobu Yamamoto has spent time on the injured list for either an ailment suffered this season or due to recovery from surgery. Shohei Ohtani made his Dodgers debut as a pitcher in June after recovering from elbow surgery in September of 2023. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and rookie Roki Sasaki have also been sidelined due to injuries.
But the Dodgers rotation is on the mend. Glasnow is back on the mound, Ohtani is gradually stretching out his arm and Snell is almost fully stretched out after three rehab starts. Slowly but surely, Los Angeles’s starters are getting healthier.
The bullpen, baseball’s seventh-worst in terms of ERA, is trending in the opposite direction. While veteran reliever Blake Treinen is also on the mend, the likes of Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips are injured, and closer Tanner Scott, who leads MLB in blown saves, seems headed for a stint on the IL after feeling “a sting” in his throwing arm during the Dodgers’ win over the Minnesota Twins on July 21. Should Los Angeles get reasonable health out of its starters the rest of the way, there’s reason to believe the rotation could be among baseball’s best. That’s not the case for the bullpen, given the struggles of offseason imports like Scott and righthander Kirby Yates.
And luckily for the Dodgers, there are several appealing bullpen options out there. The Twins’ Jhoan Duran (1.62 ERA and 15 saves), the Cleveland Guardians’ Emmanuel Clase (2.86 ERA, 21 saves) and the Pittsburgh Pirates’ David Bednar (2.38 ERA, 14 saves) could be options if Los Angeles seeks to upgrade at closer. Or the Dodgers could seek to improve the bridge to the ninth inning. Either way, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that the Dodgers bullpen could use a shot in the arm more so than its rotation.
The Braves should trade more than just pending free agents
Verdict: Fiction
When the Atlanta Braves front office ran the numbers on every possible way the 2025 season could have played out, the way it has actually transpired was almost certainly one of the most unlikely scenarios. With the trade deadline a little over a week away, Atlanta (44–55) has massively underachieved, is 10 ½ games out of an NL wild card spot and has been hit with body blows in the form of 60-day injured list stints to reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale and fellow starters Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo Lopez and AJ Smith-Shawver. That’s effectively the entire starting rotation. With just 3.2% postseason odds via Fangraphs, the Braves’ fate as a seller in this year’s deadline may be sealed.
But that doesn’t mean that president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos needs to be rash in his decision-making. This is a team that has posted seven straight winning seasons and won the World Series in 2021. And while the product on the field this season has been alarmingly bad, it’s not hard to squint and see a potential rebound season in ‘26, especially with its star core—Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II—under contract on long-term deals. And the Braves will likely benefit from better health in ‘26. Right? Right??
Anyway, it seems rash to break up this core after what’s amounting to one lost season. To be clear, Atlanta doesn’t have the most enticing trade chips—closer Raisel Iglesias (5.12 ERA, 11-for-15 in save opportunities) and designated hitter Marcell Ozuna, who owns just a .751 OPS after finishing fourth in the MVP voting in ‘24, are its most enticing free-agents-to-be.
However, in a market that figures to be long on buyers and short on sellers, Atlanta could find itself in an advantageous position even if it only chooses to trade away the likes of Iglesias and Ozuna. Doing so feels like a measured way for Anthopoulos to approach this deadline. Wave the white flag for the ‘25 campaign but don’t surrender on ‘26—and beyond.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fact or Fiction: MLB Trade Deadline Edition.