As I mentioned last year, and I’ll say it again next year, this is my least favorite story to write, because who truly knows one week after the draft which top picks won’t do well in the NFL?
But even with how wrong I was about some picks last year—go ahead, make fun of me—I was O.K. with the list I formed because I put more focus into the surroundings and less on the player. For example, Malik Nabers was an elite talent in college, but he joined one of the worst rosters in the league, with Daniel Jones as the Week 1 starter. But Nabers still found a way to be electric, even though the New York Giants rotated Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle at quarterback.
For this year’s potential busts, the focus was more on the team’s poor track record at certain positions. Also, versatility can be a negative if a team doesn't know how to apply it.
As for this year’s No. 1 potential bust, there were a handful of red flags that made it more about the player, but there’s a strong chance this prediction will look foolish midway through the 2025 season.
All right, let’s get to the top five most likely draft busts from the NFC.
5. Kelvin Banks Jr., OL, New Orleans Saints
Usually, positional flexibility is a positive, but the Saints haven’t had success lately with knowing where to place players on their offensive line. Trevor Penning, the 2022 first-round pick, has struggled playing at both tackle spots. Taliese Fuaga, last year’s first rounder, had somewhat of a disappointing rookie year after an impressive training camp.
Now, there’s a possibility of Banks, the No. 9 pick, becoming the team’s third starting left tackle in as many years if the team moves Fuaga to the right side and make Penning the backup swing tackle. Banks could also start at left guard, but that would mean giving Penning another season to prove himself. Regardless of where Banks plays, new coach Kellen Moore needs to deliver better results on the offensive line. This franchise hasn’t gotten much right there, going back to the 2020 first-round selection of Cesar Ruiz, the inconsistent starting right guard.
As for another concern, Banks’s ideal position might be guard, and if that’s the case, the Saints reached for him, with top-10 picks often reserved for tackles. With GM Mickey Loomis still around, it’s tough to think the Saints finally got it right with a first-round offensive lineman.
4. Jalon Walker, edge, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons received an A grade from me for this first-round selection because of the endless possibilities of how to utilize Walker, a hybrid defender who can rush the passer and be a sideline-to-sideline playmaker. But that kind of versatility could cause some coaches to overthink, perhaps giving a rookie too much too soon. This will be a delicate balance for Falcons coach Raheem Morris and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.
It will be easier with the team’s other first-rounder, because James Pearce Jr. is a natural pass rusher who can rely on athleticism to chase down quarterbacks. Perhaps Pearce’s presence leads to Walker playing more off-ball linebacker in his rookie season, giving Walker time to settle in at one position before being unleashed as a pass rusher. Then again, the Falcons could use all the help they can get at edge rusher.
Walker, the No. 15 pick, is undersized at edge rusher, standing at 6' 1" and 243 pounds, but that might be his best position because of how he uses his speed and length to his advantage. Atlanta got it right by adding Walker’s vast skill set, but it won’t be easy to form a role that eventually makes him a chess piece for Morris and Ulbrich.
3. Mykel Williams, edge, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have struggled to find a productive No. 2 edge rusher to complement Nick Bosa. It’s tough to assess whether San Francisco finally found the right player to hold down the role for many years to come partly because Williams didn’t have the breakout junior season many expected him to have at Georgia due to a nagging ankle injury.
Still, Williams displayed plenty of toughness and leaned on his superior strength to shed off blockers and create pressure. But the No. 11 pick might not have the same upside as the edge rushers who went after him. Walker is more polished and has positional versatility. Pearce is considered to be the best athlete among the edge rushers in this class. Shemar Stewart, the Cincinnati Bengals’ No. 17 selection, is another boom-or-bust prospect, but he’s just as strong as Williams and might offer more in terms of athleticism. If Williams can develop more tools and rely more on skills to break free, then adding the Georgia product to this list could look silly by next draft season.
2. Tyler Shough, QB, Saints
The Saints might have put too much stock into how pro-ready Shough is after spending seven years in college. Spending a second-round pick on Shough gives the Saints another potential Week 1 starter in case the team can’t find a resolution with Derek Carr. But this appears to be more of a 2025 fix and not a long-term answer at quarterback. Maybe Moore can get Shough to produce immediately to possibly make him a franchise quarterback, but the older rookie was praised by the draft experts for his high floor, not his ceiling.
Jalen Milroe and Shedeur Sanders—two QBs available after the second round—offered more upside than Shough, who turns 26 in September. This is not to say Milroe or Sanders will one day be star signal-callers, because this was considered a down year for QB prospects. But New Orleans would have been better off using the No. 40 pick to add youth to an older defense and selecting a quarterback later in the draft. Perhaps the team didn’t want to wait that long after the poor results it saw from Spencer Rattler, last year’s fifth-round pick who struggled in the games he filled in for the injured Carr.
If Shough, who dealt with multiple injuries in college, turns out to be more of a QB2, expect the Saints to look for a quarterback again next year. Maybe then they’ll stop messing around and actually draft a top-rated quarterback in the first round, which they haven’t done since 1971 when they took Archie Manning.
1. Walter Nolen, DT, Arizona Cardinals
Nolen might be the biggest boom-or-bust prospect from the 2025 draft. His physical traits scream Jalen Carter-like potential, but it’s tough to ignore the red flags. He had two lackluster seasons at Texas A&M before his breakout season at Ole Miss. Scouts and draft experts reportedly had a hard time searching for glowing reviews from Nolen’s stint with the Aggies.
With character and work ethic concerns, Nolen wasn’t in the top 16 of most draft boards from the prominent draft experts. But it’s not surprising that a team took a chance on Nolen’s elite physical traits, with the Cardinals rolling the dice on him with the No. 16 pick. Coach Jonathan Gannon is the ideal coach to help Nolen reach his high potential, with a defensive background that turned the Cardinals into a middle-of-the-pack defense despite the team lacking talent on that side of the ball. Also, Gannon knows the importance of having a stout defensive line as the former defensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Nolen’s physical gifts are worth betting on, but there are plenty of concerns with this first-round selection.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 NFL Draft: Five Most Likely Busts in the NFC.