Two old school rivals face off in yet another playoff series, as the New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night.
New York has lost the last three playoff series against the Pacers, including last season’s second-round matchup, but it is favored in Game 1 – and to win this series – this postseason.
Indiana is coming off two huge wins in the playoffs, beating the No. 5-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games before taking down the Cleveland Cavaliers (the No. 1 seed in the East) in five games in the second round.
The Pacers won all three games in Cleveland in the second round, moving them to 4-1 straight up on the road in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Knicks beat the defending champion Boston Celtics in six games, pulling off on the biggest upsets in recent postseason history.
Last season, injuries ended up dooming the Knicks in their matchup against the Pacers, but both of these teams are relatively healthy heading into the Eastern Conference Finals.
So, who has the edge in Game 1?
Let’s break down the odds, player props to bet and my game prediction for Wednesday’s action.
Pacers vs. Knicks Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
- Pacers +4.5 (-110)
- Knicks -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Pacers: +150
- Knicks: -180
Total
- 223 (Over -110/Under -110)
Pacers vs. Knicks How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, May 21
- Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
- Venue: Madison Square Garden
- How to Watch (TV): TNT
- Series: Tied 0-0
Pacers vs. Knicks Injury Reports
Pacers Injury Report
- Isaiah Jackson -- out
Knicks Injury Report
- None to report
Pacers vs. Knicks Best NBA Prop Bets
Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet
- Myles Turner OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)
Last season, Myles Turner gave the Knicks a ton of trouble from beyond the arc in the playoffs, hitting two or more shots from 3 in five of the seven games in the series while shooting 48.3 percent from downtown.
Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled in pick-and-roll coverage this season, and Turner could get a few clean looks on pick-and-pop scenarios against the Knicks. During the regular season, New York ranked 26th in opponent 3-point percentage.
Turner is a player to watch in this series, as he could swing things if he gets hot from deep.
New York Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet
- Jalen Brunson OVER 28.5 Points (-115)
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jalen Brunson is a great bet in the prop market:
I absolutely love this matchup for Jalen Brunson, as the Knicks star guard is averaging 28.8 points per game in the playoffs, shooting 44.0 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from 3.
While the circumstances – and the supporting cast – are different for Brunson this season, I can’t look past how he dominated the Pacers in the playoffs last season. Indiana does not have a great one-on-one matchup for him, and I think the Knicks guard will be able to pick out the defenders he wants to attack with the Knicks pick-and-roll offense.
Here’s how Brunson fared against his three primary matchups in the second round last season:
- vs. Andrew Nembard: 67 points (66.7% FG, 50.0% 3P) in 110 partial possessions
- vs. Aaron Nesmith: 68 points (45.0% FG, 36.4% 3P) in 145.5 partial possessions
- vs. TJ McConnell: 26 points (44.0% FG, 0.0% 3P) in 106.7 partial possessions
Indiana has been a much better defense in the second half of this season, but Brunson’s usage is massive. He’s attempting 22.3 shots and 7.8 free throws per game in the playoffs.
Until Indiana proves that it has a scheme to slow down Brunson, especially now that he has more help on offense, I think this line is too low. Brunson has 29 or more points in seven games already this postseason.
Pacers vs. Knicks Prediction and Pick
Outside of Game 6 of the second round against the Celtics, New York has played a ton of close games when it wins, and a ton of close games overall, in the playoffs.
The Knicks have just two double-digit victories in 12 games, so I wouldn't be shocked to see them in a close game against this Indiana squad.
The Pacers are elite on the road this postseason, winning four of their five games, and they have the No. 2 offensive rating amongst playoff teams. The Knicks, who were a top five offense in the regular season, are just ninth out of 16 teams in offensive rating in the playoffs, and that number has skyrocketed because of the team’s dominant Game 6 showing against Boston.
This season, the Pacers are an impressive 16-10 against the spread when set as road underdogs, and they upset the Cavs in three straight road games in the second round.
While I’m not sold on Indiana winning this game outright, the Knicks have played a ton of close playoff games in the Tom Thibodeau-Jalen Brunson era. New York had four games decided by less than 10 points in this matchup in last season’s playoffs.
With this spread just above one possession, I think there is value in betting on a Pacers team with a rest advantage – and a ton of playoff experience – in Game 1.
Pick: Pacers +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Pacers vs. Knicks Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for Eastern Conference Finals Game 1.