College Football Playoff Projection After Week 2: Miami Ahead in ACC Race

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Multiple College Football Playoff candidates took surprising losses in Week 2, while a slew of other contenders played around with lesser competition and failed to impress.

You have to carefully scrutinize many of the efforts teams put forth and how they’ll translate moving forward. You can rule out Florida as any sort of CFP contender. Arizona State has shifted to the outside looking in after its shocking loss at Mississippi State, and Illinois sure seems to be the dark horse in the Big Ten after picking up a nice win on the road at Duke. Meanwhile, Miami appears slightly ahead in the race for the ACC after SMU collapsed against Baylor and Clemson plodded along to escape with a win against Troy.

Factoring in all of the results, forecasting the rest of the season and then putting our selection committee hats on, here’s the latest updated College Football Playoff projection and which matchups we could see this December.

College Football Playoff projected rankings after Week 2

LSU
Penn State
Ohio State
Georgia
Miami
Oregon
Clemson
Utah
Illinois
Iowa State
Texas
USF

First Round

No. 12 USF at No. 5 Miami
No. 11 Texas at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Clemson
No. 9 Illinois at No. 8 Utah

Quarterfinals

Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia vs. winner of No. 12 USF at No. 5 Miami
Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 11 Texas at No. 6 Oregon
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Penn State vs. winner of No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Clemson
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 LSU vs. winner of No. 9 Illinois at No. 8 Utah

No. 12 USF at No. 5 Miami

We’ll see this matchup for real on Saturday in Week 3, and there’s a decent chance to see it again in December. The Bulls are unquestionably in the driver’s seat for the Group of 5 bid after beating Boise State and Florida, even if they were to lose to the Hurricanes.

No. 11 Texas at No. 6 Oregon

Arch Manning and the Longhorns looked much more like the version we expected them to be in their home opener, but they’ve still got a narrow path to the playoff given looming tests like a game at Georgia. As for the Ducks, they won’t be tested until going to Penn State, but they can keep turning heads by blowing out opponents.

No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Clemson

Hooray for Ames! The Cyclones not only topped their in-state rival, but they saw their path back to the Big 12 title game look even more favorable given the results elsewhere. Meanwhile, Clemson looked all out of sorts early in a tussle against Troy, but the ACC remains the Tigers’ for the taking if they actually play to their capabilities starting next week against Georgia Tech.

No. 9 Illinois at No. 8 Utah

That was an impressive statement by the Illini in Durham, N.C., against Duke, both for beating a quality opponent and capitalizing on their mistakes to turn a close game into a runaway. It would be a fitting matchup if they were to meet the Utes, which are equally hard-nosed on both sides of the ball under a head coach who put off retirement for a reason based on how Utah has played in its first two games.

Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia

Weather no doubt interrupted Georgia’s preparations for that game against Austin Peay, but you still would have expected more than the plodding effort from the Bulldogs at home. We’ll find out much more about what this team’s ceiling is at Tennessee on Saturday.

Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Ohio State

Do you think a scrimmage against the third-string walk-ons for Ohio State would have been a stiffer challenge than beating up on Grambling 70–0? Probably, though the upcoming game against Ohio at least looks more interesting after the Bobcats knocked off a Power 4 team.

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Penn State

The good news is that the Nittany Lions’ defense notched a shutout. The grumbling for those expecting a certain level out of this Penn State can rightfully be directed toward an offense that was anything but sharp against FIU and seems like it’s peeking ahead.

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 LSU Tigers

Brian Kelly was not happy with the Tigers’ effort against Louisiana Tech, but that’s probably O.K. given how the once-daunting run over the next few weeks looks a lot less so based on how the likes of Florida, Ole Miss and others have played before SEC play begins in earnest.

Top 25 projected rankings after Week 2

While predicting how the College Football Playoff will unfold is an exercise in projecting wins and losses throughout the season, my own Top 25 is a much more week-to-week task, focusing on the present. How did teams play? Who did they beat? How does the talent on hand live up to their billing—or not?