As teams jockey for playoff seeding, the last two weeks of the regular season foment intense commentary about one of the great bromides of sport: the home field advantage. Keep this in mind when the subject of home field advantage comes up in these days of expanded MLB playoffs: It means almost nothing.
Home field advantage has been eroding as the playoff field expands. Since the field expanded to 12 teams in 2022, home teams are 60–64 in the postseason.
Remember how the wild-card round was supposed to penalize the lower seeded team by having it play entirely on the road in a best-of-three series? Home teams are 10–16 in the wild-card round.
Philosophically? Yes, teams would much rather play at home. There is the advantage of batting last, for instance. If the game is tied after eight innings, the home team does not have to defend a lead. But teams such as the 2015 Royals, ’23 Rangers and ’24 Mets have proved that nothing builds momentum and team chemistry like winning on the road. It’s the fuel from the “Us Against the World” and “Nobody Expected Us to be Here” narratives.
Would the Red Sox, for instance, rather play the Yankees in a potential Wild Card Series in Boston rather than New York? Of course. But looking at the data, it’s not that big of a deal.
I looked at winning percentages at home in the regular season and in the postseason during the five eras of MLB’s postseason formats: the years with two teams in the postseason (1903 to ’68), four teams (1969 to ’93), eight teams (1994 to 2011), 10 teams (2012 to ’19 and ’21) and 12 teams (’22 to ’25). Here is what emerges:
- The edge for home teams in the regular season has been declining slightly across the eras, from a .543 winning percentage from 1903 to ’68 to .530 from 2022 to ’25.
- Since divisional play began in 1969, home teams won at a better clip in the postseason than they did in the regular season. That is no longer true.
Here are the round-by-round records for home teams in the 12-team format:
One note of caution: Maybe the sample size is not big enough to make the leap from trend to conclusion. But also keep this in mind as far as the sample size: There have been more postseason games in the last three seasons than in the 20 seasons from 1949 to ’68.
Why are road teams faring well in the postseason these days? It could be that the talent gap has shrunk. Four of the last 10 pennant winners have been wild-card teams. The average win total for those last 10 World Series teams is 94.2—hardly juggernaut status. The American League this year, for instance, presents little separation in quality between the one-seed and the six-seed.
It may also be because ballpark conditions are much more uniform than in previous eras. Twenty-five of the 30 ballparks, for instance, use the same infield clay from Slippery Rock, Pa. Mounds are checked regularly to have uniform height and slope. Lighting is superb everywhere. Visiting teams have indoor batting cages to use during the game. (For instance, pinch hitters had to make do in a dank, narrow hallway at Wrigley Field before its renovation.) Dimensions vary, but very little about the playing conditions do.
If you’re a fan of the effect of “pressure,” the home team has more expectations that it should win.
The factor of home field advantage this postseason will be especially fascinating to watch because it follows a strong regular season for home teams. The home side has posted a .547 winning percentage this year, the highest in 15 years and the fifth highest in the wild-card era.
Three postseasons do not mean the home field advantage is dead. It’s just not what we think it is based on our historical understanding. The last teams in the wild-card era to go undefeated at home in the postseason were the 2008 Phillies (7–0) and 1999 Yankees (6–0). Is there another team out there that can restore the meaning to home field advantage? If there is, it’s likely to be one from this group: the teams who take into the postseason the greatest home field advantage—whatever it is these days.
1. Phillies at Citizens Bank Ballpark
The Phillies are built on left-handed slug—only the Athletics slug higher from the left side—and the Bank suits them just fine. Philadelphia has the best home record this year (51–24) and the greatest differential in home vs. road slugging among teams in playoff position (+.080).
Yes, Cristian Javier of Houston started a combined no-hitter at Citizens Bank in Game 4 of the 2022 World Series, and the Diamondbacks won two elimination games there in the ’23 NLCS. Those games are anomalies.
The ballpark is loud without the fans having to be told when to get loud. With cozy dimensions and seats close to the field and bullpen, it’s an intimidating place to play with an edge to it.
Under manager Rob Thomson, the Phillies are 13–5 at home in the postseason, including 13–0 when they score more than two runs. Opposing starters in that span are 3–10 when they face Philadelphia in Philadelphia. None of those 18 starters made it through three complete turns of the lineup.
2. Mariners at T-Mobile Park
Play the Mariners in their ballpark, with its expansive outfield and lack of carry on batted balls, and you’re likely to find yourself on the wrong side of a low-scoring game.
The Mariners are 20–3 at home since July 31, including four walkoff wins, and 8–2 in one-run games. Though Seattle ranks 13th in MLB in ERA, the strength of this team is its pitching staff. Only the Nationals throw more fastballs and only the Rays and Marlins have a higher average fastball velocity, which makes the Mariners the most power-packed staff in playoff position.
Their stuff really plays up at home, a pitcher’s park that encourages attacking hitters with an aggressive approach. Seattle has the biggest home vs. road ERA split of any team in playoff position, an ERA delta of 1.34. The gap in batting average on balls in play is enormous.
3. Blue Jays at Rogers Centre
The Blue Jays are an old-school rally team that relies on putting the ball in play and extending at-bats and innings more than they do quick strikes. Only the Padres and Brewers have a lower attack angle to the baseball. The fast turf of Rogers Centre fits their keep-the-line-moving approach.
Toronto’s home vs. road splits are not extreme, but its .031 increase in slug is third-best among teams in playoff position.
The energy in the ballpark is not to be discounted, either. The Jays have not won a postseason game since 2016, and the crowds at the renovated stadium are creating an intensity that fuels this rally team. In 34 starts since June 30, opposing starters are 4–14 at Rogers Centre. Toronto is 50–25 at home, the best record in the AL.
4. Dodgers at Dodger Stadium
Dodgers pitchers love to spin the baseball. They do it more and better at home.
Dodgers hitters are much better at home. Los Angeles has the second-highest slug delta for home vs. road (+.066). It is the top slugging team at home in MLB at .472—the second-best home slug in franchise history. It has hit 127 homers at home and 90 on the road.
Maybe it’s the temperate climate. Maybe it’s all the technology and in-game work areas they have in their renovated massive home clubhouse. Maybe it’s those incessant loudspeakers. Whatever it is, the Dodgers level of play rises at home. Under Dave Roberts, they are 27–17 at Dodger Stadium in the postseason, including 6–3 when facing elimination.
5. Tie: Padres at Petco Park and Brewers at American Family Field
I couldn’t separate these two. Two franchises that have never won the World Series, have loyal fan bases, play almost every home game in ideal conditions and win with an offense that cuts against the grain of today’s power-reliant baseball. The Padres and Brewers hit the most ground balls among teams still in contention and they strike out less often than every team except the Blue Jays and Royals.
As you might expect, with their pitcher-friendly home park, the Padres hit better on the road than at home. Only the Pirates, Nationals and Royals hit fewer homers at home. But like the Mariners, the Padres thrive on their pitching at home. San Diego has the toughest staff to hit in its home park—and the toughest in franchise history at home. The differences in these numbers are stunning:
(*Lowest in franchise history)
The Brewers have MLB’s best road record and hit better on the road. But like the Padres, their pitchers also excel at home. Their strikeout rate at home is 9.5 per nine innings, well up from the rate of 8.3 per nine on the road.
What stands out the most about Milwaukee is how it finds ways to win games at home. The Brewers are 18–6 in one-run games at home. They seem to have some magic on their side. How do you quantify that?
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Why MLB’s Postseason Home Field Advantage Is Smaller Than It’s Ever Been.