We knew Oakmont Country Club was going to be a brute.
Sam Burns snatched the 36-hole lead at 3 over by shooting 65 on Friday. And some of the game's top players, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa sit at 4 over, along with several other names.
With still two rounds to be played, will a difficult weekend setup allow those at 4 over to make a run? Or have they already shot themselves out of contention? Sports Illustrated’s writers and editors have gathered to ponder this statement in U.S. Open Round 2 Fact or Fiction:
Players at 4 over going to the weekend can still win this U.S. Open.
Bob Harig, SI Golf Senior Writer: FACT. Typically, you need to be inside the top 10 after 36 holes to have any chance of winning, but 4 over is only seven shots back and a round like Sam Burns’s 65 puts you right back into contention, depending on what the leaders do. It’s a lot of players to pass, but there won’t be a lot of low numbers and if one of those players can put up that kind of score it makes it possible.
John Pluym, SI.com Managing Editor: FACT. U.S. Open pressure is unlike any pressure in a major tournament, especially one at Oakmont. The thick rough and slick greens continue to frustrate the players. In fact, it’s neutralized some of the best players in the game over the first two rounds. Just watch the video of an animated Scottie Scheffler working with his coach after his round Saturday. I still think the winner will finish with an over-par score.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf Managing Director: FACT. Four over is tied for 23rd place, but ahead of that group, there are only four players—Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott, Jason Day and Keegan Bradley—who are previous major winners. If Scheffler, Rahm or Morikawa can get in the mix on Saturday, they could absolutely lean on experience and win this.
Michael Rosenberg, SI Senior Writer: FACT. Heading into the weekend of a golf tournament, the question of how many players you need to pass is just as important as how far back you are. Only five players are at even par or better for the tournament. Let’s say they all shoot over par Saturday, which is very possible. A player at 4 over today would only need to shoot 67 to be within three strokes of the lead. Also very possible! However, rain is coming, greens will be softer, and scores will likely be lower (whenever they actually play golf). So while players at 4 over can win this U.S. Open, I don’t think any of them will.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf Contributor: FACT. Making up seven shots is not impossible. Justin Thomas did it in the final round at the 2022 PGA Championship. And the majority of the names sitting at the top of the leaderboard don't necessarily scare you. However, it seems players imploading over the next two rounds is more likely than somebody going out and shooting a Johnny Miller-esque 63 to win.
John Schwarb, SI Golf Senior Editor: FACT. Moving Day at Oakmont could shuffle the deck wildly, with the likes of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa very capable of improving their lots—and rounds of 1 or 2 under or even par could do it. And the air is gonna get awfully thin at the top for Sam Burns, J.J. Spaun and Viktor Hovland.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fact or Fiction: Players at 4 Over Going to the Weekend Can Still Win This U.S. Open.