Game 1 of the NBA Finals is upon us, and the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are heavily favored to take a 1-0 series lead.
Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as odds-on favorites to win the title since the start of the conference finals, and that has not changed entering the 2025 NBA Finals.
Still, the Indiana Pacers have been a tough team to deal with on the road in the playoffs, as they’re 6-2 straight up and took five of six games on the road against the New York Knicks (2-1) and Cleveland Cavaliers (3-0).
MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are aiming to build on their league-best net rating (and record) during the regular season and complete a title run. If the Thunder win it all, they have an argument to be viewed as one of the more dominant teams in NBA history.
But, they’ll have to get past a Pacers team that is 12-4 this postseason and rising as the team to beat the East for years to come.
Here’s a breakdown of Game 1, including the latest odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my best bet to kick off the 2025 NBA Finals.
Pacers vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
- Pacers +9 (-105)
- Thunder -9 (-115)
Moneyline
- Pacers: +320
- Thunder: -410
Total
- 231 (Over -112/Under -108)
Pacers vs. Thunder How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, June 5
- Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
- Venue: Paycom Center
- How to Watch (TV): ABC
- Series: Tied 0-0
Pacers vs. Thunder Injury Reports
Pacers Injury Report
- Tony Bradley – questionable
- Isaiah Jackson – out
- Jarace Walker – out
Thunder Injury Report
- Nikola Topic – out
Pacers vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets
Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet
- Pascal Siakam OVER 19.5 Points (-105)
Pascal Siakam won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP for Indiana by scoring 30 or more points in three of his six games against the New York Knicks.
Siakam was a matchup nightmare for the Knicks in transition, especially when he was switched onto smaller players.
Against the Thunder, he may draw Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren at times, but when OKC goes small, I expect Siakam to hunt mismatches for the Pacers.
Siakam has eight games with 20 or more points and is averaging 21.1 points per game while shooting 53.7 percent from the field and 46.3 percent from deep in the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet
- Jalen Williams OVER 1.5 3-Pointers made (-135)
So far this postseason, Thunder forward Jalen Williams has been up and down as a score, especially from beyond the arc.
Williams is shooting just 31.8 percent from 3, but he has made at least two shots from deep in 10 of his 16 games.
I’m backing him to hit multiple 3s in Game 1 of this series, as I expect the All-NBA forward and others on the OKC roster to get some pretty solid looks if the Pacers aim to shut down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Williams shot the 3-ball much better in the Western Conference Finals, converting 46.2 percent of his attempts.
Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Thunder are the bet to make in the first quarter of this Game 1 matchup:
I know, I know, you want a pick for the full game.
But, I want to deliver a winner.
There are some interesting first quarter trends so far this postseason, including the fact that OKC has an insane net rating of +30.3 at home in the first quarter this postseason.
OKC was 43-37-3 against the spread in the first quarter during the regular season, and it has posted some big numbers in the first quarter – including holding the Minnesota Timberwolves to nine points in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals – in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Pacers have a road net rating of -10.6 in the opening frame, and they actually fell behind quite a bit against the New York Knicks in the first quarter in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Paycom Center is about as hostile of an environment that there is in the NBA playoffs, and I lean with the No. 1 defense in Game 1 of the Finals if both teams get off to a slow start. There’s going to be some nerves likely on both sides, but the Thunder defense is the best single unit in the NBA.
I expect OKC to get off to a solid start and build on this first quarter net rating in Game 1.
Pick: Thunder First Quarter -3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 1.