OAKMONT, Pa. — After 50 holes of mostly joyless golf, or a U.S. Open as it’s supposed to be, it seemed clear that nobody was going to win this thing.
We had already seen golf’s best made small and puny and weak by mighty Oakmont Country Club, like Superman after a couple of kryptonite slushies at 7-Eleven.
Then something changed on the last four holes on a steamy Saturday evening. Signs of life. Savvy vet Adam Scott turned this Open on its head with a late flurry of birdies. (“Ow! My head!”—the Open.) Sam Burns suddenly looked just as clutch as his best buddy, Scottie Scheffler. And J.J. Spaun morphed into a guy who seems like he can go the distance, kinda-sorta-maybe.
Now it’s time to look at what’s left for Sunday, which earlier resembled the “La La Land” opening sequence of cars endlessly backed up on an L.A. freeway, and now is more like three pace cars in front of an endlessly backed-up L.A. freeway. Who’s going to survive this U.S. Open Sunday? I’ll use the Johnny Zone as a guideline to figure who has a realistic chance. That’s seven shots since Johnny Miller shot a famous 63 here in 1973 to win, and that’s 7 under par now. It was 8 under when Johnny did it but hey, everything is worth less today than it used to be.
Here’s the lineup of candidates ranked in order of most likely to win:
Sam Burns (up by 1): This guy has played downright Scottie-ly since his impressive second-round 65. And that’s coming off his hot finish and playoff loss a week earlier in Canada. Oakmont is kicking everyone in the pants from tee to green. Burns’s superpower is his putter, and his short game is right up there, too. If he keeps it in play off the tee, his putter gives him the edge. That’s a big if but great putting is always a game changer.
Adam Scott (1 back): Where did this come from? Scott is a former Masters and Players champion but those were more than a decade ago. He’s 44 now and his only top-10 finish in his last 22 major appearances was a 10th in last year’s British Open. He joked this week that he’s “playing Old Man Par golf” and no joke, it’s working. He was going to be just another guy back in the pack until he birdied three of the last six holes. Can a guy win a major with a broomstick putter? Hey, he already did—at Augusta. Forget his age for now, he has the best resume of anyone on the board.
Viktor Hovland (3 back): Norway’s greatest golfer has challenged in a couple of majors. He smiles a lot, jokes about himself and people like him. His short game was a D-plus by Tour standards two years ago but he busted his you-know-what to improve it and now it’s pretty good. Maybe you saw him chip in for eagle Friday from the gunch by the 17th green. He is also an experienced Ryder Cupper, so he knows what Big Pressure feels like. He had a two-way miss working Saturday, though. Does he have a short enough memory for Sunday?
J.J. Spaun (1 back): Raise your hand if you still haven’t heard of him even after he lost a Monday morning playoff to Rory at the prestigious Player Championship. First-round leaders are supposed to evaporate after Thursday, according to Open history, but Spaun has got game, which he might’ve inherited since his mother was an avid golfer and got permission from her doctor to continue playing into the eighth month of her pregnancy. If Spaun can avoid getting timid with his putts on the big stage Sunday, he can pull this off. Yeah, he had a big par-saving putt Saturday at 18 and left that short. He also had to have a drive in the fairway at 18 and he fanned it WTFR—Way Right, for short—and precariously near the media scum tent. Don’t try this Sunday, J.J.
Thriston Lawrence (5 back): Few writers can resist the temptation to crack a joke about him being related to Thurston Howell III from Gilligan’s Island but that’s stupid. Mrs. Howell was too old to procreate, plus they never got off that island. (Well, we hoped Ginger would but …) Lawrence caved after an opening 67 and had a poor late finish in the second round but Saturday he was steadier than a towering oak, and good luck finding more than a couple of those on the grounds. (After the tree removal, maybe it should be called Oaklessmont.) Lawrence missed three cuts in his previous four majors but the fourth was a fourth-place finish in the Open Championship last year. That’s where Xander Schauffele blitzed the field on the back nine and Lawrence, a South African, didn’t fold. He can’t par Oaklessmont to death Sunday, though, he needs another 67 or better.
Tyrrell Hatton (5 back): This Englishman is a brilliant iron player, just what the coroner prescribed for Oakmont, and he would be near the top of anyone’s list of the Best Players Who Haven’t Won a Major Yet. He might even be No. 1. He’s also known for having a Tasmanian Devil inside him, often losing his cool over errant shots or putts that dared defy him by not dropping. Hatton made a move Saturday with birdies at 12 and 13 but doubled 15, then birdied 17 and saved a clutch par at 18 to stay within plain sight of the lead. Don’t forget, he won eight times on the DP World Tour and once on LIV Golf.
Carlos Ortiz (4 back): No doubt you remember his win at the PGA Tour’s Vivint Houston Open in 2020 just like no doubt you knew a company named Vivint ever sponsored a PGA Tour event. Ortiz, 34, grew up in Guadalajara, Mexico, played the PGA Tour for a while and jumped to LIV Golf, where he has no wins but one playoff loss. Ortiz impressed Saturday with a one-bogey 67. This is his first major championship appearance since the 2023 U.S. Open so it’s a big one. Even if he doesn’t win, a big finish scores him world ranking points, a top 10 gets him into next year’s U.S. Open and a top-4 earns him a Masters invite. I’ll say something in Spanish to inspire him—Carlos Santana.
Russell Henley (8 back): Few outside his immediate family know this Arnold Palmer Invitational champ is ranked No. 7 in the world. Henley, a University of Georgia alum, drives it straight (14th in fairways hit) and finds a lot of greens (10th in greens hit in regulation). He also ranks third in proximity to the hole, which is why he was among my pre-tournament stealth picks. (Irrelevant—I also picked a lot of big-name guys who missed the cut.) The bad news: Henley managed only one birdie Saturday. That won’t get it done.
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (6 back): Even most golf writers would admit, if they were honest (hah, no chance!), that they had to look up Neergaard-Petersen’s first name. And also check the spelling of his last name. This Dane, an All-American at Oklahoma State, is the Cinderella figure on the board. Rasmus (sorry, that’s quicker than coughing out his hyphenated full name) is 25, has three wins on the Challenge Tour, Europe’s version of the Korn Ferry Tour, and this is only his second major championship. His first was last month’s PGA Championship, where he missed the cut. He’s got two red-numbered scores in three days, 69s in the first and third rounds. His first three PGA Tour starts were notable. He finished second in Puerto Rico and 22nd at the Valspar Championship. Long shot or young gun?
Robert MacIntyre (7 back): This likable lefty Scot is a gamer. He battled hard Saturday and rose from 4 over to 1 over before a couple of late bogeys set him back. Still, he shot 69 when he needed a subpar round. He likes to hit shots and commit to shotmaking—what’s not to like about that? The problem is, he’s got eight players ahead of him and he’s still six shots out of a tie for second. Big hill to climb, laddie.
Ben Griffin (8 back): Oakmont gave the tour’s hottest player a swift kick in the you-know-what at the finish. He spent most of the third round lurking within striking distance of the lead but closed with three bogeys, a birdie and a dreadful double at the 18th. His story about becoming a mortgage loan officer for a while when it seemed his golf dream wouldn’t pan out would’ve been a good one. His future remains bright but he’s going to have to outdo Johnny Miller to rescue this Open.
Scottie Scheffler (8 back): Mister Number One sneaked onto the leaderboard’s front page when no one was looking with a round of even-par 70. Scheffler can go low, we know, but he hasn’t looked comfortable all week with his swing and certainly not with his putting, which is what Oakmont’s nasty greens can do to you. This requires a Hail Scottie pass.
Cameron Young (7 back): His name comes up on the media center digital scoreboard as YOUNG CAM, shades of Old and Young Tom Morris. He closed with 32 on the back nine Saturday. He’d better start with 32 or better Sunday. Young, 28, from Scarborough, N.Y., has yet to win a PGA Tour event but does have five top-10 finishes in majors, including a runner-up at the Old Course in the 2022 Open Championship. This would be a heck of a way to break out but even Old Tom Morris probably wouldn’t have that much magic.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Take Your Pick: Assessing the Chances of All Contenders Still Standing at This U.S. Open.