College Football Playoff Projection After Week 4: Oklahoma, Indiana Stamp Contender Status

We’re entering that stage of the season where teams are already starting to take themselves out of the running for the College Football Playoff.

You can count Clemson on that list after the first 1–3 start under Dabo Swinney and former at-large pick SMU, which can still technically win the ACC as an autobid, but will need to run the table. Fringe Group of 5 teams such as Toledo, which lost to Western Michigan, can also kiss any thoughts of nabbing that golden playoff ticket.

Several other programs, however, used the past week in college football to stamp themselves as real factors in the playoff chase. Oklahoma has two of the best wins in the country after topping Michigan and Auburn. Indiana looks like a wagon after destroying Illinois. It also might be time to consider Ole Miss after it destroyed Tulane.

Factoring in all of the results so far, forecasting the rest of the season out and then putting our selection committee hats on, here’s the latest updated College Football Playoff projection and which matchups we could see this December.

College Football Playoff projected rankings after Week 4

Ohio State
LSU
Georgia
Miami
Penn State
Oregon
Florida State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Indiana
Texas A&M
Tulane

First Round

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Penn State
No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Texas Tech

Quarterfinals

Orange Bowl: No. 4 Miami vs. winner of No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Penn State
Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. winner of No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Oregon
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 LSU vs. winner of No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Texas Tech

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Penn State

Even with the Green Wave taking their first loss of the season, they are still in good shape to make the CFP. They still look like the best team in the American where it’s fait accompli the league champion will lock into the 12-seed. As for the Nittany Lions, they were off but will get their first test Saturday night in Happy Valley against Oregon.

No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Oregon

The Aggies have the benefit of a great road win already and an SEC schedule that offers the right mix of winnable games (Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida at home the next three weeks) with the ability to make a misstep and still remain in the CFP discussion. The Ducks are playing with house money in similar respect as they roll into their Big Ten title game rematch with Penn State at 4–0.

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State

It might be time to start retiring the phrase, “This year’s Indiana is Indiana.” The Hoosiers are legit. The way they’ve blown out teams early in the season may even give them some wiggle room if they finish 10–2 instead of the 11–1 that got them in the CFP in 2024. Down at Florida State, the Seminoles better not look past a tricky Friday game at Virginia with Miami on deck.

No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Texas Tech

Who wouldn’t like to see this old Big 12 matchup in the playoff? While prolific offense typically comes to mind for the Sooners and Red Raiders, we saw this past Saturday that both of their defenses are what truly elevates them into CFP contenders. Good luck finding a tortilla in a Lubbock grocery store in the weeks leading up to this game.

Orange Bowl: No. 4 Miami

The Hurricanes already benefit from having eight home games this season and don’t leave the Sunshine State until November. The home cooking could extend to the playoff as a quirk of the calendar. If Miami secures a bye in the first round, it would be locked into the Orange Bowl on its home field for the quarterfinal and could play its semifinal a short flight away in Atlanta before returning home to play for the national title at Hard Rock Stadium. It might be too early to start thinking of such things, but that would be quite a favorable path.

Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Georgia

A loss to Alabama won’t be a death knell to the Bulldogs’ CFP chances, but if they win between the hedges Saturday, it seems you can pencil them in for Atlanta given the rest of the schedule.

Sugar Bowl: No. 2 LSU Tigers

How much does that 17–10 win over Clemson get devalued in the eyes of the committee given the way the (other) Tigers’ season has gone since? It’s probably still a solid win but far from the Top 25 victory LSU counted on in Week 1.

Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State

This weekend will be a key data point for the Buckeyes as they go on the road for the first time in a tough place to play at Washington. It will be a big test for young QB Julian Sayin and another reminder at just how spaced out the difficult games are for the reigning champions.

Top 25 projected rankings after Week 4

While predicting how the College Football Playoff will wind up is an exercise in projecting out wins and losses throughout the season, my own top 25 is much more of a week-to-week task focused on the here and now. How did teams play? Who did they beat? How does the talent on hand live up to their billing—or not?