The 10 Favorites to Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or

The latest victor of the Ballon d’Or has only just been crowned, yet the path to next year’s esteemed prize has already begun.

After more than a decade of predictability thanks to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo’s otherworldly brilliance, variety has returned to France Football’s lucrative award. Between its inauguration and Ronaldo’s first triumph in 2008, there were only eight multi-time winners of the Ballon d’Or.

There have now been three different winners over the past four years, and 2026 has the potential to provide another surprise winner due to next summer’s World Cup, which will likely have a huge bearing on who lifts the golden ball aloft in Paris next September.

2018 winner Luka Modrić and 2023 winner Messi triumphed off the back of legacy-defining campaigns on the grandest stage the sport has to offer. So, with looming the North American spectacle in mind but other factors taken into account, too, here are Sports Illustrated’s 10 leading contenders for the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

The 10 Favorites to Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or—Ranked

10. Lionel Messi - Inter Miami / Argentina

The greatest to ever do it continues to emerge on social media timelines with his latest dazzling MLS sequence, but Messi isn’t a potential contender for next year’s award because of his Inter Miami exploits.

Instead of departing on a high after Qatar, Messi remains the central figure of the world’s finest national team. Argentina have since added another Copa América to rubber-stamp their dominance over South America, and they’re gunning to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup.

If Messi, at 39, is able to inspire his country to that extraordinary feat, he may well be the frontrunner to claim a ninth Ballon d’Or.

9. Raphinha - Barcelona / Brazil

Hansi Flick’s arrival has proven to be the making of Raphinha at Barcelona. Once a tidy wide creator who drew stylistic comparisons to Ángel Di Maria, Raphinha has evolved into an inevitable final third force and a mightily efficient outlet.

He’ll struggle to match his staggering output from 2024–25, but Barça aren’t going to stop scoring goals in Flick’s second year, as they aim to repeat (or improve upon) their treble success.

Raphinha, not Vinícius Júnior, could emerge as Brazil’s beacon of hope at the World Cup, too.

8. Mohamed Salah - Liverpool / Egypt

Like Raphinha, Salah has a job on his hands if he’s to match his record-breaking productivity from last season.

With Liverpool overseeing a historic spend and several shiny new assets arriving to diversify Arne Slot’s attack, the Reds are less likely to be so utterly reliant on the Egyptian king.

Nevertheless, Salah has shown at the start of the 2025–26 season that he remains inevitable down the right despite struggling to adapt and adjust to a different-looking Liverpool outfit. Once things click between the newbies and the old master, Salah’s numbers could take off again.

To be in serious contention, the Reds must embark on a deeper Champions League run than they did last time out.

7. Ousmané Dembélé - Paris Saint-Germain / France

There were so many factors in Paris Saint-Germain’s all-conquering 2024–25 campaign, with nine members of Luis Enrique’s squad earning a 2025 Ballon d’Or nomination.

PSG remain the world’s most potent outfit, but Dembélé has been absent at the start of the new season through injury. His role change was perhaps the biggest reason for their eventual success in Enrique’s second year, and the Frenchman’s season didn’t burst into life until the new year.

However, given the inconsistency and injury woes Dembélé has manifested throughout his career, he’s unlikely to repeat in 2026.

6. Pedri - Barcelona / Spain

“Today is not a victory for me, it is for Spanish football...” Rodri said after claiming the prize in 2024, “...for so many players who have not won it and have deserved it, like [Andres] Iniesta, Xavi [Hernandez], Iker [Casillas], Sergio Busquets, so many others. It is for Spanish football and for the figure of the midfielder.”

Xavi and Iniesta were doubtless worthy of Ballon d’Or success, and we shouldn’t be hesitant to suggest that Pedri has been performing at a level comparable to the apexes of the aforementioned Barcelona greats.

The Spaniard is the best midfielder in football, and he’ll complement an already outstanding Spain triumvirate at next summer’s World Cup.

5. Erling Haaland - Manchester City / Norway

Haaland would have a Ballon d’Or in his back pocket if Messi hadn’t embarked on perhaps the greatest World Cup campaign by an individual in 2022.

The Norwegian’s record-breaking 2022–23 campaign earned him a second-place finish in the voting. He’s since finished fifth and 26th.

Haaland will continue to score goals at a frightening rate, but his general level at the start of 2025–26 has arguably been the best we’ve ever seen. It may require Manchester City to improve as a collective for him to be recognised at next year’s ceremony, but Norway look set to qualify for their first World Cup since 1998.

4. Harry Kane - Bayern Munich / England

Has the world finally stopped pretending to regard Kane as anything but an all-time great centre forward? Was it that Bundesliga triumph that convinced the masses?

Kane has been doing this for years, but sluggish performances at major tournaments and his trophy drought were easy sticks to beat the striker with. Oh, and also because he played for Spurs.

The Bayern Munich forward hasn’t necessarily reached new heights in Germany, but he‘s performing with a swagger that suggests he’s considerably better than those he’s competing against.

Kane will score a bucket load again for Bayern, and Vincent Kompany’s team look like a serious Champions League contender.

3. Michael Olise - Bayern Munich / France

Speaking of swagger, Olise has it in swathes.

The French winger certainly isn’t bereft of self-assurance, and he does look like a future Ballon d’Or winner in the making. Whether 2026 is a year or two too soon remains to be seen, but Olise has established himself as one of the world’s most watchable wide men over the past 12 months.

Kompany’s Bayern are embarking on a PSG-like evolution, and Olise is at the forefront of their dominance alongside Kane.

Aesthetics matter for voters, and Olise’s easy-on-the-eye style complements inevitable productivity that comes with performing in the Bundesliga. If he can deliver in the biggest moments, and potentially for France next summer, Olise has a chance.

2. Kylian Mbappé - Real Madrid / France

Another year has passed without Kylian Mbappé holding the golden ball aloft.

Many would’ve projected the French superstar to be a multi-time winner by now after he burst onto the scene like very few ever have at the 2018 World Cup.

Mbappé has thrived on the biggest stage for his country, and Real Madrid look poised to improve considerably on a season that ended without any trophies worthy of Ballon d’Or recognition.

The Madrid striker was La Liga’s top goalscorer last term, and he looks incredibly sharp at the start of 2025–26. He’s got a very good chance next year, but Mbappé shouldn’t be regarded as the favourite.

1. Lamine Yamal - Barcelona / Spain

Yamal made a strong push in 2025 and many would argue that he is the best footballer in the world right now, even if he wasn’t able to match the likes of Raphinha, Salah and Dembélé statistically.

The 18-year-old is the epitome of a generation-defining talent who, on his current trajectory, will undoubtedly end his career as a multi-time Ballon d’Or winner and one of the greatest of all time.

Yamal has been struggling with a groin injury at the start of 2025–26, but he’ll soon be back to fooling La Liga left-backs with his combination of confidence, ingenuity and outstanding technique.

He may well be celebrating his crowning glory at MetLife Stadium next July, and at 19, Yamal would become the youngest Ballon d’Or victor. He’s gotten used to smashing records, though.