Forde-Yard Dash: College Football’s Power Shift in Big Ten Wallets vs. SEC Tradition

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (Powerball tickets sold separately in Alabama, where they might serve to fund Kalen DeBoer’s buyout is Susie from Guntersville cashes in). First Quarter: When Your Forever Coach Stops Getting the Job Done. Second Quarter: The ACC’s Number Crunch.

Third Quarter: Can the Big Ten Outspend the SEC?

Nick Saban (21) opined last week on The Pat McAfee Show that NIL hasn’t just leveled the geographic playing field—it has tilted it in the direction of the Big Ten. The edge the SEC had in terms of proximity to local talent, not to mention being the only game in a region historically lacking in pro sports, are now being outweighed by cold, hard cash.

“Kids grew up wanting to go to LSU, Alabama, Georgia,” Saban said. “You got the money now. They don’t mind going to Ohio State. They don’t mind going to other places. … So that geographic advantage that the Southeast Conference had may be changing a little bit now, with the different culture, with NIL and money involved in decision making. That’s created a little bit of an edge for the Big Ten.”

Saban added that Texas and Texas A&M might be the only SEC schools that can compete with the “old-time generational wealth” that exists within Big Ten alumni and fan bases. Oil money as the equalizer, if you will.

(We will pause here for everyone to make their “NIL: Now It’s Legal” comments. The common assertion from folks outside the SEC is that the league enjoyed its spectacular run of dominance from 2006 to ’22 because it was always paying players, just against NCAA rules, while everyone else was toeing the line. While the NCAA infractions database suggests the SEC was indeed avidly flouting the rules manual for many years, only the willfully ignorant would assert that the rest of college football was playing by the rules. There were only degrees of cheating when it came to compensating players, not an absence of it.)

Saban makes a fair point, even if it’s a slightly alarmist point. (Coaches, even the retired ones, love to lament disadvantages while downplaying advantages.) The Big Ten has won the last two national championships as the NIL era takes root, with revenue sharing the latest accelerant to the new model. The Big Ten also has, generally speaking, more massive universities and higher academic rankings than the SEC.

Those are the theoretical building blocks for having more wealthy alumni, which gives a disposable income advantage to the Big Ten. Perhaps an eff you money advantage as well, if we’re using the recruiting battle for Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood (22) as a yardstick. Billionaire Larry Ellison’s wife—the latest in a long line of them—is a Wolverines fan who essentially wanted to buy her team the five-star QB from their backyard, winning the recruiting battle against LSU with a reported eight-figure deal. It’s good to have the Oracle founder on your side.

Simply having a lot of rich alums is no guarantee of athletic success. If it were, Stanford, Northwestern and Duke would be doing much better in football. The sweet spot is having a large number of rich alums who are emotionally invested in football success. That’s your target donor base, and that’s where Saban’s point resonates. Wave enough money around and it will catch the players’ eyes.

Perhaps that helps explain why Ohio State (23) has no fewer than seven key contributors from Florida and Georgia: wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Inniss; safety Caleb Downs; running back CJ Donaldson Jr.; defensive linemen Kenyatta Jackson Jr., Eddrick Houston and Kayden McDonald. Michigan (24) has starters from Georgia (Justice Haynes and Nathan Efobi), Alabama (TJ Metcalf) and Texas (Blake Frazier). Penn State (25) has defensive starters from Florida (Zane Durant and Antoine Belgrave-Shorter), Georgia (Audavion Collins) and Alabama (A.J. Harris).

Whether it’s the money talking or something else, there are other examples beyond the vanguard of the league: Illinois (26) has a star quarterback from Mississippi; Minnesota (27) has an impressive freshman starting QB from Arkansas; Nebraska (28) flipped the commitment of five-star QB Dylan Raiola from Georgia.

Now here is where the Saban Theory runs into reality: Big Ten recruiting coups in the South are not breaking news, and they predate the NIL era. Urban Meyer did extensive damage in his old SEC stomping grounds after moving to Ohio State. Jim Harbaugh’s successive playoff teams from 2021–23 had many key contributors from the Deep South, plus a running back from the border ground of Virginia named Blake Corum. James Franklin, no stranger to recruiting the South from his tenure at Vanderbilt, has worked that region for years at Penn State.

And the recruiting inroads still run both ways. SEC programs continue to recruit nationally, including the Big Ten’s backyard. Georgia (29) has 2026 commitments from players in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Maryland. Alabama (30) has pledges from prospects in Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana and Ohio. Tennessee (31) has landed commitments from Maryland and New Jersey. On it goes.

(Interestingly, Texas is not one of the SEC programs doing much work in the Midwest or Northeast. Outside their own state, the Longhorns are primarily focused on California and the Deep South.)

The last balancing factor to consider here is the shifting demographics of the country: population continues to rise in the South and stagnate in the Midwest. Census figures from 2024 show a 1.4% year-over-year population growth in the South, higher than any other region, with the Midwest having the lowest regional growth at 0.6%. That’s a continuation of a trend.

If more people and money are relocating to the South, that should enhance the necessary factors for university donations: enrollment, academic prestige, school loyalty, disposable income. The factors Saban and others are worried about could be reversed over the long haul. But coaches rarely think about the long haul when they can hit the panic button today.