College Football Playoff Projection After Week 3: New ACC Teams Rise in Rankings

If you told somebody in the preseason that Georgia Tech, Miami and Florida State would be the three ACC teams in the mix to get to the College Football Playoff but Clemson would not be, how shocked do you think they would be?

Alas, that’s the case after the Tigers fell to the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta. It’s far from the only notable result that shook up the CFP outlook, including a botched snap that will weigh heavily on Notre Dame, Arch Manning’s struggles having an impact on Texas’s future and Tulane retaking the Group of 5 banner from conference rival USF.

Factoring in all of the results so far, forecasting the rest of the season out and then putting our selection committee hats on, here’s the latest updated College Football Playoff projection and which matchups we could see this December.

College Football Playoff projected rankings after Week 3

LSU
Penn State
Ohio State
Georgia
Miami
Oregon
Texas A&M
Iowa State
Florida State
Oklahoma
Georgia Tech
Tulane

First Round

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Miami
No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Florida State at No. 8 Iowa State

Quarterfinals

Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia vs. winner of No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Miami
Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Oregon
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Penn State vs. winner of No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Texas A&M
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 LSU vs. winner of No. 9 Florida State at No. 8 Iowa State

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Miami

After securing its second victory over a Power 4 opponent, Tulane slides into the Group of 5 spot even before accounting for the final score of that Miami thumping of USF. It’s possible the Green Wave could even get into the at-large discussion for the playoff if they were to knock off Ole Miss this weekend and suffer their only loss in the American title game to the Bulls—a scenario which isn’t that far-fetched based on what we’ve seen so far this season.

No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Oregon

It was already euphoric on the Flats after Georgia Tech knocked off Clemson, but it’s time to start taking the Yellow Jackets’ playoff case for real. They may play just one ranked opponent the rest of the season (though a trip to Duke could be tricky in October) and as we saw last year, they’re capable of pushing rival Georgia to the limit. Haynes King vs. Dante Moore could wind up being a meeting of some Heisman finalists in Eugene, too.

No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Texas A&M

This might be a matchup that drives both defensive coordinators crazy given that they’ll have to find ways to bottle up Marcel Reed and John Mateer, who not only can scramble with the best of them but also give no second thought to chucking a ball up deep. This old Big 12 tussle is notable because the Aggies are one of the few ranked teams in the SEC that the Sooners don’t play this regular season.

No. 9 Florida State at No. 8 Iowa State

The Seminoles will go basically a month off the radar of most college football fans between their win over Alabama and hosting Miami on Oct. 4. Then they’ll probably play just one game with meaning—at Clemson on Nov. 8—after that in what could be the turnaround season to cap all turnarounds in Tallahassee. Meanwhile, the Cyclones played around with their food in a rare road trip to a Sun Belt school but remain the Big 12 favorite with a schedule that misses Utah and sees Arizona State come to Ames, Iowa.

Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia

After allowing Tennessee to throw it all over the yard on Kirby Smart’s defense, it’s a bit of a change from the preseason perception to think that the Bulldogs offense is the more reliable unit. Still, until proven otherwise this is one of the two favorites to make it to Atlanta and lock up a bye in the CFP.

Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Ohio State

We’re about to get another data point on just how good the Buckeyes are when they hit the road for the first time next week, but this still appears to be a team firmly pointed at securing a quarterfinal bye even if that win over Texas doesn’t quite look as good as it once did.

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Penn State

Preseason football is over in Happy Valley as all eyes turn toward Oregon coming to town next week for a top-five matchup in the middle of a white-out.

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 LSU Tigers

We got another classic Brian Kelly rant after that win against Florida, but the questions about the offense not being as sharp as it should are warranted. That can be fine for the Tigers in the short term as long as the defense continues to look like one of the best in the SEC.

Top 25 projected rankings after Week 3

While predicting how the College Football Playoff will wind up is an exercise in projecting out wins and losses throughout the season, my own Top 25 is much more of a week-to-week task focused on the here and now. How did teams play? Who did they beat? How does the talent on hand live up to their billing—or not?