Some NFL schedule release questions. Some other questions. Let’s answer all of them …
From Matthew Lownes (@LownesMatthew): Is there going to be a push for an NFL draft lottery this decade?
Matthew, I don’t think the NFL’s going to do a draft lottery anytime soon. There hasn’t been much of an appetite for it. Part of the concern is it could lead to tanking, in that teams that are mediocre and out of the playoff picture, could lay down at the end of the season to increase their lottery odds.
The other argument that the league would make is that tanking hasn’t been that big of an issue for them, though I’d argue that could be changing, with analytics departments more involved in strategy, and putting real value on wins vs. picks. The Patriots, for example, won their Week 18 game last year, dropping them from first to fourth in the draft order. Had they lost, they’d have had the Giants and Titans bidding to move up to the top pick, and they would’ve ended up with a haul for the selection and perhaps Travis Hunter to boot.
So teams looking at those sorts of things, and getting more intentional on how they handle the end of the season, could change the equation, for sure.
From ASB1216 (@ASB1216): What do you think the timeline is for the NFL to expand to 34 teams?
ASB, I think the only way it happens is if the NFL goes international. It’s simple math, and we’ve been through it before. I don’t see where the 32 owners (or 31, not counting the Packers) will add two pieces to the financial pie they’re cutting up, unless those pieces have a chance to make their pieces bigger. Collecting a hefty expansion fee might be enticing, but that’s a one-time hit.
With that established, I think the only markets that make the NFL deals—television and otherwise—more valuable would be in other countries. That’s why the league has invested so much since 2007 to try to cultivate London as an NFL city. It’s why they are in major metropolises in Germany and Spain and Brazil now, and will be in Australia next year.
So the answer to your question would be as long as it takes to be logistically feasible and financially gainful to put a team in a massive city overseas.
From Coach Tiny (@KingTiny81): Who do you think is going to be NFL rookie of the year?
Coach, on offense, give me Chargers running back Omarion Hampton. The continued investment by Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz in the offensive line, the run-game ingenuity of OC Greg Roman, and the plug-and-play nature of the position gives Hampton a slight edge over the Raiders’ Ashton Jeanty (I think both will rush for over 1,200 yards). And I’m just not sure the infrastructure around Cam Ward or Tetairoa McMillan is strong enough for either guy to put together the kind of stats it takes to win the award.
On defense, I’m very tempted to go with San Francisco 49ers edge rusher Mykel Williams, whom I suspect always had first-pick-type freakish ability hidden by injury last year. He’ll be playing opposite Nick Bosa in a hyper-aggressive scheme, so it wouldn’t stun me if he rings up a dozen sacks. But it’s hard for me not to pick Abdul Carter, because I think his athleticism is so different for a player at that position, and because the Giants’ strength up front will allow for DC Shane Bowen to generate matchups for him.
From Henry Matthews (@henrymHuss26H): When it comes to the NFL schedule, is there any one particular game or particular team you’re most interested in seeing this season?
Henry, for me, the big thing to look at will be what I mentioned Monday—is someone really getting hosed?
The Jets were the example I used from last year. They opened the season on the other side of the country, playing the Niners in Santa Clara on a Monday night. That was followed by another road game, then their Thursday night home opener. They navigated it O.K., going 2–1, but the season revealed that the two wins were against two of the worst teams in the league, and that the open had taken its toll. New York went 1–9 over its next 10 games.
The league similarly jammed three games into 10 days for the Texans, Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers late in the season to accommodate playing on Christmas Wednesday. For two of those four playoff teams, though, the problem was mitigated by coming out of the fray with playoff positioning secured. As a result, Kansas City and Houston wound up being able to give their starters a break in Week 18.
That’s the stuff that we can forecast affecting the season now. The rest is just popcorn for football fans thirsting to get back in the movie theater.
From Logan Franz (@LivingLikeLogan): Is there any team’s draft that you’ve changed opinions on after taking some time to fully digest it all?
Arizona is one that just leaps off the page at me. I think the Cardinals’ first three picks all have first-round ability. And the top one probably was one of the top five talents in this year’s draft, regardless of position. Indeed, Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen was widely considered the highest-ceiling 3-technique in the class, and was a consideration for the Panthers at No. 8 and Niners at No. 11. If you can light a fire under him, he could be an absolute menace in Jonathan Gannon’s defense—he may have just found his equivalent to what he had in Fletcher Cox in Philly.
Meanwhile, second-rounder Will Johnson is probably a top-half-of-the-first-round corner, if not for the knee issue discovered during the draft process (which raised longevity concerns) and the lack of a 40 time (with concerns about his long speed). Third-round edge Jordan Burch, who played at both South Carolina and Oregon, has always tantalized with his talent, but left folks wanting more production from the former five-star recruit.
Throw in two more Ohio State stars on Day 3—one a bit of a dice roll (corner Denzel Burke, who started four years, but was inconsistent) and the other a potential future captain (linebacker Cody Simon), who was a late bloomer in college—and I like the ceiling for the group Arizona’s put together.
From Nick Meola (@NickMeola508): Is Ryan Cowden going to take Eliot Wolf’s job/title at the end of the upcoming season?
Nick, I don’t think things are nearly as bad in New England as you may have been led to believe. And I think the proof of it is in the hire of A.J. Highsmith as the team’s new pro scouting director. Highsmith is the son of Alonzo Highsmith, who is the right-hand man to EVP of player personnel Eliot Wolf. Hiring someone that close to Wolf into a vital director’s role is a good indication that Wolf’s going nowhere.
The connection many people didn’t make is Mike Vrabel’s link to fellow Ohioan Chad Brinker. Brinker and Vrabel worked together for a year in Tennessee and had a strong relationship. Brinker is very close to Wolf, with whom he spent nearly a decade with in Green Bay. Vrabel learned the Packers’ scouting system in his time with Brinker and talked to Brinker about Wolf before taking the Patriots job.
Could things go wrong from here? Sure. That’s always a possibility when you have a scouting chief inheriting a coach or vice versa. But I think Vrabel, Wolf and VP of player personnel Ryan Cowden, who got close to Vrabel in Tennessee, are on the same page now.
From Joey Ricottone Jr (@joeyricottone): What was your “I made it” moment in your career in the NFL world?
Joey, that’s a fun question. I think going from covering the Patriots for the MetroWest Daily News to covering the Cowboys for the Dallas Morning News was probably the one where I realized I was in position to make a career out of reporting on the NFL. After that, I’d say the experience I had in a national NFL columnist position—once held by my role model in the business, Will McDonough—gave me confidence I could really ascend.
I’m always happy to answer these questions and help people looking to get into our business.
From Joey Bag of Donuts (@joeybagovdonuts): Will there be a time in the near future where every team has to play a game out of the country in one season?
I think what the league is working toward is having a full slate of games overseas, which would be 16 to 18 games so they can sell it as a separate television package. The NFL would be in many different places, and make multiple trips to certain destinations.
If that’s the model, then, yes, every team would have to go overseas annually.
From Jamara Hudson (@jamara23732): Is there a realistic chance the Lions could make an offer to get Trey Hendrickson?
From doug mccready (@dgmccready): Lions only addressed edge in the late rounds of the draft. Was that a mistake or do you see them still looking to add a free agent?
Jamara, I like the idea, but I’d say no, because whatever you pay for Trey Hendrickson becomes the floor for a megadeal for star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. You’d be talking about $70-million-plus per year sunk into two players at one position—with one of them in his 30s—on a roster with a lot of young talent to pay.
I’m not sure that would work.
And, Doug, to answer your question, I don’t think it’s over. Remember, last year, they added Za’Darius Smith at the trade deadline. I could certainly see another move like that down the line.
From Scott Carasik (@CarasikS): How did they select the Falcons for the Germany game? Did the NFL international marketing rights make a difference?
Scott, the marketing rights make a difference. For those who don’t know, the NFL assigns these rights to teams, and it has shown to be a factor in how they pick where to send teams in international play.
That said, it’s also not hard and fast. There are too many slots to fill in London for that. While both teams going to Germany (Colts, Falcons) have the marketing rights there, the visiting team in Spain (Commanders) doesn’t have the rights in that country, and the Chargers don’t have the rights in Brazil, where they’ll be the home team in December.
From Isaac (@MetcalfsGoat): Do you think the Steelers trade for a WR before the season starts?
Isaac, I think it’s on the radar, but there are caveats.
My sense is that they’d like to see the development of their young receivers. The Steelers are higher on Calvin Austin III than the general public realizes. He’s dynamite with the ball in his hands, and progressed steadily in his first year under OC Arthur Smith. There’s also2024 third-rounder Roman Wilson, whose rookie year was beset by injury.
If the Steelers want more after seeing those guys in OTAs, there is an interesting dynamic unfolding in Green Bay. The Packers drafted Matthew Golden in the first round and Savion Williams in the third. Both of those guys are going to make the team. They’re also bringing back Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson is returning for injury.
That’s six guys before you even get to others, such as Mecole Hardman. It feels like the Packers could move at least one before the season. And Doubs and Watson were around Aaron Rodgers as rookies. Rodgers spoke highly of Doubs back then. So if you put the pieces together, maybe there’s a match.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Mailbag: Draft Lottery Not Likely This Decade.