Well, the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder aren’t messing around in the Western Conference Finals.
After losing Game 1 in the second round to the Denver Nuggets, OKC made sure to avoid an early-series deficit against the Minnesota Timberwolves, outscoring them by 30 points in the second half on their way to a 26-point win.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31 points, nine assists) shot 8-for-14 from the field in the second half to pace OKC, while the Timberwolves scored just 40 points in the second half and saw Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo – their two best bench options – combine to shoot just 4-for-25 from the field.
Oklahoma City has moved to a -200 favorite to win the NBA Finals, and oddsmakers are backing the Thunder to win Game 2, once again setting them as 7.5-point favorites at home.
Can the Timberwolves, who have an impressive against the spread record as road underdogs, even this series?
Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
- Timberwolves +7.5 (-105)
- Thunder -7.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Timberwolves: +260
- Thunder: -325
Total
- 214.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, May 22
- Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: Paycom Center
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Series: OKC leads 1-0
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Injury Reports
Timberwolves Injury Report
- None to report
Thunder Injury Report
- Nikola Topic -- out
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets
Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet
- Julius Randle OVER 19.5 Points (-120)
Julius Randle’s impressive playoff run continued in Game 1, as he led the way for the Wolves with 28 points on 9-of-13 shooting from the field (5-for-6 from 3).
Randle may get even more touches in Game 2, as he was the only Timberwolves player that was really effective against OKC’s No. 1 defense.
This postseason, Randle has scored 20 or more points in nine of his 11 games, averaging 24.3 points per game while shooting an impressive 52.2 percent from the field and 39.3 percent from 3.
Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 6.5 Assists (-145)
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Gilgeous-Alexander is a great bet in this market:
While SGA took a ton of shots in Game 1 and wasn’t exactly super efficient, I was really impressed with his playmaking against a Minnesota defense that was selling out to stop him.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.6 assists per game this postseason, putting up seven or more dimes in half of his games. However, I am intrigued by his potential assists, per NBA.com’s tracking data, as the star guard is averaging 15.6 potential assists per game.
Now, SGA’s teammates need to convert those for him to clear this prop, but the fact that he’s had that many assist-worthy plays is notable.
Teams have really tried to wall off the paint from the All-Star guard this season, but if he continues to trust his teammates, he could soar past this number for the sixth time in his last nine games.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick
Even after OKC’s blowout win in Game 1, these teams remain the No. 1 and No. 2 squads in defensive rating this postseason.
That hasn’t always led to low-scoring games, but seven of Minnesota’s 11 playoff games have fallen short of 214.5 points. Some of that is due to poor offenses – like the Golden State Warriors without Steph Curry – but the Thunder have offered the most defensive resistance to the Wolves in this postseason.
OKC forces a ton of turnovers (18.3 per game in the playoffs), and it held Minnesota to just 20 points in the paint. Prior to Game 1, the Timberwolves had not scored fewer than 26 points in the paint in a single game.
On top of that, the Thunder held Minnesota without a single fast break point in Game 1.
If OKC can keep those two things in check, the Wolves simply do not have enough firepower in the half court against all of these elite OKC defenders.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the defenses from these squads shine through again in Game 2.
Pick: UNDER 214.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for Western Conference Finals Game 2.