Tigres vs. Toluca: Liga MX Semifinals Preview, Predictions, Lineups

The Liga MX Clausura 2025 season is down to its last four teams, with Tigres and Toluca kicking off the semifinals on Wednesday, May 14.

Both teams boast two of the strongest squads in all of Liga MX; however, both teams barely made it past the quarterfinals, drawing their ties on aggregate score and only qualifying to the semifinals because of their higher finishing position during the regular season—Liga MX's tiebreaker if a playoff series ends in a draw.

Tigres drew 2–2 vs. Necaxa with an agonizing 97th minute match-winning own goal in the second leg of the quarterfinals. The goal was initially waved off for a foul, but after a lengthy VAR check the goal was given in one of the most controversial decisions in recent seasons.

After falling 3–2 to Monterrey in the first leg and going a man down early in the second leg, Toluca showed their might and defeated Rayados 2–1 in the second leg thanks to an inspired performance from Mexico international Alexis Vega. Now, the regular season league-leaders are on the verge of ending a 15-year title drought.

Tigres manager Guido Pizarro played the full 90 minutes the last time these two teams met in February. Now retired and turned coach, he'll hope to lead his former teammates to a sixth league title since 2015. Antonio Mohamed's Toluca, though, will want to make amends for previous playoff capitulations and advance to the final for the first time since 2022.

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What Time Does Tigres vs. Toluca Kick-Off?

Location: Monterrey, Mexico
Stadium: Estadio Universitario
Date: Wednesday, May 14
Kick-off Time: 11 p.m. ET / (May 15, 4 a.m. BST)

Tigres vs. Toluca H2H Record (Last Five Games)

Tigres: 1 win
Toluca: 3 wins
Draws: 1

Last Meeting: Toluca 1–0 Tigres (Feb. 1, 2025) - Liga MX Clausura 2025 regular season

Current Form (All Competitions)

How To Watch Tigres vs. Toluca on TV?

Tigres Team News

Despite being within seconds of exiting the competition in the quarterfinals, Tigres played arguably the best brand of soccer we've seen in the Pizarro era in the second leg vs. Necaxa.

With Romulo anchoring the midfield, Juan Brunetta and Fernando Gorriaran—Tigres' most dangerous players—have the ability to to interchange positions all over the pitch, being outlets for defenders in build-up and turning creators as soon as they step over the halfway line. After his appointment in February, Pizarro appears to have found his perfect balance in midfield.

Legendary striker André-Pierre Gignac remains sidelined with an achilles injury and is unlikely to feature in the semifinals. Rafael Carioca is nearing full fitness, but with Romulo playing the way he is, it'll be hard for the historic, veteran midfielder to regain his place in the lineup.

Diego Lainez had one of his best performances of the season vs. Necaxa and will look to build on that in the climax of the campaign.

Tigres Predicted Lineup vs. Toluca

Tigres Predicted Lineup vs. Toluca (4-3-3): Guzmán; Aquino, Purata, Joaquim, Angulo; Romulo, Brunetta, Gorriaran; Lainez, Herrera, Ibáñez

Toluca Team News

The top team during the regular season was pushed to the limit in the quarterfinals in large part due to their own mistakes. The almost three-week break between the conclusion of the regular season and the quarterfinals took its toll on Mohamed's team. Nevertheless, the team found its groove in the second leg and 10 men were enough to dispatch Rayados.

Vega continued his player of the season form and carried Toluca to victory with the greatest playoff performance of his career. Alongside Paulinho and Jesús Angulo, with Hector Herrera and Marcel Ruiz commanding the midfield, Toluca boast a formidable attack that can make up for their shaky back line.

Record signing Helinho continued his terrible tenure in Toluca with a red card vs. Monterrey that jeopardized his side's title-run. Although his team bailed him out, the Brazilian will miss the first leg of the semifinals and Juan Pablo Domínguez will likely replace him in the lineup.

Center back Antonio Briseño was also sent off while he was warming up and will be unavailable, leaving Toluca's delicate defensive line even more devoid of alternatives. Former Marseille goalkeeper Pau López suffered a finger injury and will be sidelined for the rest of the season.

Toluca Predicted Lineup vs. Tigres

Toluca Predicted Lineup vs. Tigres (4-2-3-1): García, Barbosa, Pereira, Luan, Gallardo; Herrera, Ruiz; Domínguez, Angulo, Vega; Paulinho

Tigres vs. Toluca Score Prediction (First Leg)

A draw on aggregate score would see Toluca advance to the final, so it's crucial for Tigres to win the first leg in their home stadium to take an advantage into the second leg on Saturday.

The midfield battle will be key. These are two of the best midfield trios in Liga MX and the game will be won and lost by who manages to secure control in the middle of the park. The hosts will look to feed their wingers and exploit the spaces Toluca so routinely leave uncovered behind the back line. Toluca will look to attack more centrally and overwhelm Romulo with Vega, Ruiz, Angulo and Herrera drifting centrally to have an extra man in possession.

It'll be a high-intensity match where both teams will trade punches. In the end, spoils will be shared, leaving it all to be decided in the second leg at the Nemesio Diéz.