Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. Remember when I wrote about the Niners’ rash of injuries? It just got a whole lot worse with the loss of Nick Bosa.
In today’s SI:AM:
🦁 Lions’ statement win
🚀 Brutal injury for Rockets
🏈 NFL power rankings
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The AL Central comes down to this
The biggest regular-season series left on the MLB schedule begins tonight.
While four of the six divisions remain up for grabs, only one race is between teams that still have games left to play against each other: the AL Central. A race that seemed decided three weeks ago is suddenly tighter than any other in the majors. It could be wrapped up after the Guardians and Tigers meet for a three-game series that wraps Thursday in Cleveland, though.
On Sept. 4, the Guardians lost 4–2 to the Rays and fell to 69–70 on the season, 11 games behind the Tigers. At that point, FanGraphs put Cleveland’s odds of winning the division at 0.1%. The Guardians were still alive, but only technically.
Since then, though, the combination of a Cleveland hot streak and a Detroit skid has the division truly up for grabs as both teams play their final two series of the regular season. The Guardians are a preposterous 15–2 since Sept. 5, the best record in the majors during that time, while the Tigers have been the second-worst team in the majors over that span at 4–11. As a result, Detroit’s lead in the division has shrunk to just one game.
The situation is extra fun because it’s essentially the same as what happened with the Tigers last season, when they were hovering around .500 at the start of September before catching fire and sneaking into the playoffs as a wild card. Detroit kept that momentum going this season with a blazing hot start. Through the end of May, the Tigers had the best record in the majors at 38–21, but they’ve cooled off significantly since then, going 47–50 since the start of June.
The Guardians took a cautious approach at the trade deadline in July. They didn’t have a mass sell-off like other supposed non-contenders usually do, but they also didn’t bring in any reinforcements. It seemed like the right move at the time. They were still hanging around the periphery of the wild-card hunt—close enough to make a move and sneak into the playoffs but far enough back that mortgaging the future would have been unwise. Instead, Cleveland’s only two deadline moves were to trade away a pair of injured pitchers: Shane Bieber and Paul Sewald. The Tigers were more active at the deadline, making a variety of moves primarily designed to improve their bullpen (including getting Sewald from Cleveland).
Those trades haven’t been enough for the Tigers to recapture their springtime magic, and now they find themselves going to Cleveland with their season hanging in the balance. Whichever team loses the division crown is far from guaranteed of a wild-card consolation prize. The Guardians are currently tied with the Astros for the third and final wild-card spot.
The good news for the Tigers (and the bad news for the Guardians) is that they’ll have their ace on the mound in the first game of the series. Tarik Skubal, a heavy favorite to win his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award, gets the start on Tuesday night opposite Gavin Williams for Cleveland. Williams has the Guardians’ best starter this season (a 3.06 ERA, more than a run better than any other member of the rotation), but he’s a far cry from Skubal. Skubal also got the start the last time these two teams played on Thursday. He went six innings and allowed one run in a 3–1 Tigers loss.
If you take a look at this week’s MLB schedule, you can tell the league was hoping to have more high-stakes series like this one. But while matchups like Reds-Brewers and Orioles-Yankees don’t have the sort of high stakes you might have expected at the start of the season, we’ve at least got one high-pressure series in the final week. It’s still September, but it’ll feel like October.
The best of Sports Illustrated
- Even after losing key coaches during the offseason, the Lions decisively beat the Ravens on Monday night and showed no signs of slowing down.
- Once-promising contenders like the Broncos, Packers and Bengals tumble down the NFL power rankings list after Week 3, as their major flaws were on full display.
- Chris Mannix breaks down how Fred VanVleet’s ACL tear reshapes Houston’s season—a blow that puts Amen Thompson in the spotlight and casts doubt on the Rockets’ title hopes.
- In this week’s Forde-Yard Dash, Pat Forde explores how four massive Big Ten matchups this weekend. will define the College Football Playoff race.
- The SEC, Big 12 and ACC will all add drama of their own, too. Oklahoma and Indiana surge into the College Football Playoff picture, while Clemson, SMU and Toledo fade after rough Week 4 showings.
- Bruce Pearl’s sudden retirement highlights a growing pattern in college basketball: legendary coaches are timing their exits to hand the reins to their chosen successors, writes Kevin Sweeney.
The top five…
… things I saw last night:
5. A nice diving catch by Padres left fielder Bryce Johnson.
4. Another juggling catch by Nationals center fielder Jacob Young. (But not as amazing as the one he made on Sunday.)
3. Freddy Fermin’s 11th-inning walk-off single to clinch a playoff spot for the Padres.
2. A fun twist on the speed option by the Lions to score on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
1. An absolutely flawless throw by Lamar Jackson to Mark Andrews for a touchdown.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | AL Central Up for Grabs as Tigers and Guardians Meet in Pivotal Series.