Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Ralphie VII got a win after his debut jaunt around Folsom Field.
First Quarter: It Was All a Lie
The offseason stories that you were told about your team? About how this year was going to be different? How the breakthrough was at hand? Better times had arrived?
Yeah, well. About those.
One of the hard realities of the sport is that there are as many disappointments as surprises, and by now the disappointments are fully sinking in. UCLA and Virginia Tech learned the ugly truth in the first three weeks, and now others are having to accept their fate: We’re not as good as we thought we were.
The partial list:
The Palmetto State (1). Clemson, which started the year No. 4, is 1–3 for the first time since 2004. South Carolina, which started the year No. 13, is 2–2 with victories over winless Virginia Tech and FCS South Carolina State. The way they’re trending, the game between these two at the end of the season might be the Bitter Bowl.
Fact is, both were overrated coming into the season. Now we’re seeing how much. The Tigers should never have been considered a national championship contender, and the Gamecocks were LaNorris Sellers and not enough else.
Dabo Swinney’s defiant soliloquies about fan criticism have become trite, and this year they ring particularly hollow. The Tigers have gotten worse by the week, not better, bottoming out in a home blowout loss to Syracuse. Kudos to the Orange, winners get washed and all that, but it’s Clemson that comes out looking really washed.
The Tigers just aren’t very good at much of anything thus far. They’re 14th in the ACC in total offense and 11th in total defense; 16th in third-down conversions; tied for last in scrimmage plays of 40 yards or longer with one; tied for 15th in turnovers committed with seven. There is nothing behind the paw on the helmet.
South Carolina has scored 10 touchdowns this season, and four of them are from the defense or special teams. The Gamecocks did not find the end zone in the second half against Vanderbilt or Missouri. They’re 130th nationally in rushing offense at 80.3 yards per game, and 131st in yards per carry at 2.59.
South Carolina better get a win Saturday at home against Kentucky, because the next five games are all against top 15 opponents. While Shane Beamer has been an upset king in previous seasons, he might not have the horses (or chickens) to shock the world this year.
Clemson’s schedule provides more opportunities to get well, with a manageable October following an open date this week. First up is another team that has flopped coming out of the gate this season …
North Carolina (2). If this is the NFL’s 33rd team, TCU could win the AFC. The lavishly hyped Bill Belichick Era is subject to outright mockery so far, with blowout losses to power-conference opponents sandwiching a couple of low-thrill victories over lesser teams. The Tar Heels were outscored 82-23 by the Horned Frogs and Central Florida, getting thoroughly outplayed in both games.
Belichick has rather stubbornly stuck with Gio Lopez as his starting quarterback over backup Max Johnson. Lopez had four turnovers in the two losses, and has a pass efficiency rating of 122.42 on the season. Johnson, who played in relief of a banged-up Lopez against both TCU and UCF, has a 136.27 rating and has yet to turn the ball over.
Maybe this open date will give Belichick a chance to reassess his best QB option—but his team is lacking in enough areas that it really might not matter much. Getting to six wins, even with a soft remaining schedule that lacks Miami, Florida State and Louisville, looks difficult.
Illinois (3). The 63–10 train wreck against Indiana on Saturday night was the No. 9 Illini’s most points allowed in seven years, and it underscores a trend for Bret Bielema-coached teams. When they’re ranked in the preseason, disappointment often follows.
His 2010 and ’11 Wisconsin teams improved their ranking slightly during the season, moving up five spots in ’10 and one spot in ’11 during the course of the season. But there are more examples of the opposite migration.
The 2015 Arkansas team began the year No. 18 and was out of the Top 25 for good after two games, the second of which was a loss to Toledo. Same with 2012 Wisconsin, which went from No. 12 to unranked after a 1–1 start and never returned. In ’08, the Badgers slid from preseason No. 13 to unranked by mid-October, finishing 7–6. The year before that, Wisconsin started seventh and finished 24th.
Florida (4). Forget competing in the SEC; the Gators can’t compete in their state. They’ve lost to Miami and South Florida, look quite capable of losing to Florida State at year’s end, and frankly are fortunate not to have 3–0 Central Florida on the schedule.
The Gators’ point total has decreased every week, from 55 to 16 to 10 to seven. So has their yards per play: 6.1 to 5.6 to to 4.8 to an inert 2.7. Five-star quarterback DJ Lagway appears to be broken, throwing five interceptions at LSU and then having a long completion of 12 yards at Miami.
Yes, the competition has been really stout the last two games, but that’s why the home upset against USF in Week 2 was so damaging—against the schedule Florida is playing, that was a game it couldn’t lose. It’s impossible for anyone to envision a Billy Napier renaissance. Maybe Florida can slip into the spoiler role against the gauntlet of contenders to come.
Wisconsin (5). A tenure that had been scraping against rock bottom for a while hit it hard Saturday, as the Badgers fell to 2–2. The fans cranked up the heat on Luke Fickell in their dispiriting home blowout loss to Maryland, booing his team and chanting for the coach’s firing. That now seems like fait accompli.
Their losing streak against power-conference competition is now seven games, and here is what October brings after an open date this weekend: at Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, at Oregon, opponents with a combined record of 13–2. Then comes Washington and Indiana to start November, both of which are undefeated.
Oklahoma State (6). If any fan base wants to get into a misery contest with the Cowboys faithful, they’ll lose. It’s indescribably bad in Stillwater, with the latest embarrassment a home loss to Tulsa. That’s 11 straight losses to FBS competition.
There is every reason to believe forever coach Mike Gundy is done-dy. Like Fickell and Napier, it’s just a matter of how and when. His thin saving grace is that he’s yet to lose a Big 12 game this season, but Baylor is positioned to check that box come Saturday.
Nebraska (7). The Cornhuskers ran their losing streak against ranked opponents to 28, which seems impossible for a program this accomplished. But here they are, having been trampled on the ground by Michigan (286 yards and three touchdowns). As has often been the case in this eternal big-game futility, Nebraska just kept managing to not make the key play at the key time. In that respect, Matt Rhule is hard to distinguish from Scott Frost.
The Huskers are 3–1 and could have many more wins to come against a schedule that does not include Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana. But they still would have to beat some good teams to contend in the Big Ten, and that’s at least one level up from where they have resided for years.
Utah’s offense (8). Turns out, averaging more than 500 yards against UCLA, Cal Poly and Wyoming doesn’t mean the offense is fixed. Here came Texas Tech, with its big-dollar portal defense, and there went the Utes back to futility moving the ball and scoring.
Utah had just one play of longer than 14 yards. Transfer QB Devon Dampier threw for just 162 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Red Raiders might turn out to be the best team in the Big 12, perhaps even by a wide margin, but Utah fans were hoping that would be their squad this year.
Arkansas’ defense (9). The Razorbacks have given up 73 points and 964 yards their last two games, losses to Mississippi and Memphis. That included 290 on the ground Saturday against the Tigers. When you’re punched in the mouth like that by an American Conference opponent—even a good one like Memphis—it’s a bad sign for what’s to come.
The next four games are against ranked teams. If Sam Pittman can’t get his defense to stop anyone in that stretch, his tenure in Fayetteville is probably over.
Dash College Football Playoff Bracket
The Big 12 (10) finished its mop-up mission of the ACC on Saturday, running its head-to-head record against that league to 6–1. Will that ultimately matter come College Football Playoff selection time? We’ll see. For the moment, the ACC is benefitting from splashy non-conference wins by Miami and Florida State.
If the season ended today, here is how The Dash selection committee of one would arrange the field.
Seeding:
1. Miami
2. Ohio State
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida State
5. LSU
6. Oregon
7. Indiana
8. Texas A&M
9. Vanderbilt
10. Georgia
11. Texas Tech
12. Memphis
First-round games:
No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals:
Memphis-LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State in the Cotton Bowl
Texas Tech-Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl
Georgia-Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
Vanderbilt-Texas A&M winner vs. No. 1 Miami in the Orange Bowl
Also considered: TCU, Georgia Tech, Iowa State, Texas, Michigan, Mississippi, Tennessee, Missouri, Mississippi State, Alabama, USC, South Florida, Notre Dame.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: Things Have Gone Horribly Wrong for These College Football Giants.