NBA Mock Draft: Final First-Round Projections, Including Where Ace Bailey Lands

It’s officially NBA draft week! While there’s little drama expected with the first two picks, things could get very interesting at No. 3 and beyond as teams hunt for the next faces of their franchise. This year’s draft also comes ahead of an offseason that many around the NBA expect to be especially chaotic, and with already two first-round picks on the move, don’t be surprised if some of that action goes down on draft night.

Here’s Sports Illustrated’s latest mock draft projecting every pick of the first round.

1. Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg, Duke Blue Devils

Flagg is a near lock to hear his name called first on draft night, providing the Mavericks with a huge young talent injection. Flagg’s versatility, feel and competitiveness give him a chance to help Dallas in its playoff pursuit early in his career and give him the runway to develop as a star for a post–Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving era.

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2. San Antonio Spurs: Dylan Harper, Rutgers Scarlet Knights

The Spurs are among the most intriguing teams this offseason as they look to maximize their time with Victor Wembanyama still on a manageable contract, but right now things seem to be trending toward them keeping this pick and selecting the best player available in Harper. The Rutgers product is an elite ball screen operator with the ability to pressure the rim who should fit in with a young core that features Wembanyama and last season’s Rookie of the Year, Stephon Castle.

3. Philadelphia 76ers: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor Bears

Edgecombe seems to be squarely in play at both No. 3 and No. 4, fitting in nicely to both Philadelphia and Charlotte’s rosters with his athleticism and defensive instincts. Here, the Baylor product could play off high-level scorers like Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain in the Philadelphia backcourt, with a clearer path to early production than a younger, perhaps more talented option like Ace Bailey, who canceled plans to work out in Philly late last week.

4. Charlotte Hornets: Tre Johnson, Texas Longhorns

Things get interesting for Charlotte here, especially if Edgecombe is picked third. Bailey could be in play despite the fit not being ideal next to a pair of high-usage players in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, as could a trade up to pursue him from teams later in the lottery. But if the Hornets keep the pick, a shooter likely makes the most sense. Johnson’s the choice in this mock because of his higher on-ball upside, but Kon Knueppel from Duke could also be in play.

5. Utah Jazz: Kon Knueppel, Duke Blue Devils

The Jazz make more sense for a potential big swing on Bailey, though ESPN reported last week that Bailey’s camp “doesn’t appear to have much interest in Utah.” That could change in the lead-up to the draft as a potential draft-night fall becomes more real, but it could also dissuade Utah from taking the dive with Bailey, one of the more polarizing players in the class. Instead, they get Knueppel here, a plug-and-play rotation piece who’s perhaps the best shooter in this class.

6. Washington Wizards: Ace Bailey, Rutgers Scarlet Knights

At this point, it’d be hard to pass on Bailey, especially for an organization like Washington that’s still very much in asset-accumulation mode. Landing in Washington could align with Bailey’s desire to land in a situation where he has a chance to become a star, although he might benefit from the additional structure he’d get from landing in an organization with more veterans around him.

7. New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma Sooners

Fears seems likely to land somewhere between picks No. 5 and 8, with Utah, New Orleans and Brooklyn all very viable landing spots for the dynamic point guard out of Oklahoma. Assuming New Orleans doesn’t work to package its newly acquired second first-rounder with this pick to move up, Fears seems like the favorite to go here and could form a long-term pick-and-roll partnership with talented young big Yves Missi.

8. Brooklyn Nets: Khaman Maluach, Duke Blue Devils

With four first-round picks and a longer path to contention ahead, the Nets can look for the best player available here. No player in this range possesses more upside than Maluach, who has elite physical tools and impressive defensive instincts that flashed in his lone season at Duke. Guards like Fears (should he fall) or Kasparas Jakucionis could also be in play.

9. Toronto Raptors: Noa Essengue, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)

The frontcourt seems like the most likely area for Toronto to target. That could include Maluach, offensive-minded big Derik Queen or sharp defender Collin Murray-Boyles. Essengue could be the best of all worlds, having carved out a strong role on a winning team in the German BBL and possessing high-level upside defensively, combined with a solid feel for the game on the offensive end.

10. Phoenix Suns: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina Gamecocks

Phoenix moves into the top 10 as a result of the blockbuster deal that shipped Kevin Durant to Houston. The Suns are somewhat of a wild card here, with few known connections to lottery-level players throughout the predraft process and more moves potentially to be made. Murray-Boyles is a logical target as a high-feel role player and impactful defender who doesn’t need the ball in his hands.

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Egor Demin, BYU Cougars

Demin’s positional size and court vision make him an intriguing late-lottery option. While not identical players, Demin could get a lot out of learning alongside another jumbo playmaker on the wing in Deni Avdija, who’s coming off a career year. Lower-usage wings like Demin or Carter Bryant seem like logical targets for a Portland team with plenty of young talent.

12. Chicago Bulls: Derik Queen, Maryland Terrapins

Chicago could look to fortify its frontcourt with this pick, with Nikola Vucevic entering the twilight of his career. Queen isn’t for everyone due to his mediocre measurables and defensive question marks, but few big man prospects possess his offensive skill set and IQ.

13. Atlanta Hawks: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois Fighting Illini

Jakucionis has consistently been projected in the lottery throughout the process, but seems to have a relatively wide range of landing spots on draft night, depending on how the board shakes out. His best-case would seemingly be point guard-needy teams like Brooklyn at No. 8 or Phoenix at No. 10, but if not, he may need a team with less clear need, like Atlanta, to take him to stay in the lottery. There’s logic for Atlanta in adding another ballhandler, especially one like Jakucionis with good size who can play next to Trae Young.

14. San Antonio Spurs: Joan Beringer, Cedevita Olimpija (Slovenia)

Beringer is getting a good deal of attention in the back half of the lottery and could even come off the board a bit earlier than this, especially if other top rim protector Maluach comes off the board early. San Antonio could establish an elite defensive frontcourt for the future with Beringer and Wembanyama.

15. Oklahoma City Thunder: Carter Bryant, Arizona Wildcats

Bryant continues to garner plenty of lottery buzz and could easily be a target for Chicago at No. 12 or San Antonio at No. 14. If he falls this far, Oklahoma City could add to its embarrassment of riches from a young talent standpoint and look to develop him slowly into a long-term asset.

16. Memphis Grizzlies: Cedric Coward, Washington State Cougars

The Grizzlies added this pick from Orlando in the Desmond Bane trade. Several wings could come off the board in the teens and early 20s, but Coward feels like the right balance of upside (thanks to his elite physical tools) and early production as an older wing who shoots it at a high level.

17. Minnesota Timberwolves: Asa Newell, Georgia Bulldogs

With Julius Randle and Naz Reid hitting free agency, the frontcourt makes sense for Minnesota to target. Newell continues to receive attention in the teens as a versatile young big whose motor, touch around the rim and consistent productivity stand out.

18. Washington Wizards: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown Hoyas

Washington is still in the relatively early stages of its rebuild and can largely be position-blind in drafting this spot. Sorber, who the Wizards organization should be plenty familiar with after he played in their home arena all season at Georgetown, could be a long-term frontcourt partner with Alex Sarr.

19. Brooklyn Nets: Will Riley, Illinois Fighting Illini

Riley is somewhat polarizing given his slender frame and shot-happy offensive game, but him receiving a green room invite is a good indication that he has strong interest throughout the teens and early 20s. Brooklyn taking a swing with one of four first-rounders on a player with his offensive upside and shooting touch would make sense.

20. Miami Heat: Jase Richardson, Michigan State Spartans

The Heat need backcourt reinforcements either via the draft or free agency. Richardson, despite his physical limitations, had an outstanding freshman year at Michigan State and is the hyper-efficient bench guard that could plug in at a number of different organizations.

21. Utah Jazz: Danny Wolf, Michigan Wolverines

Utah could continue adding high-feel versatile pieces after getting Knueppel earlier in this mock with Wolf, whose size and skill level are incredibly hard to find. There’s some risk involved, especially if he doesn’t defend at a high enough level, but there’s too much to like to let him fall much past this slot.

22. Atlanta Hawks: Nique Clifford, Colorado State Rams

Clifford’s a game-ready piece and a guy who would fit in well with Atlanta, which has collected several versatile, high-feel players to surround Young. The tape from his end-of-season explosion at Colorado State is very compelling.

23. New Orleans Pelicans: Liam McNeeley, UConn Huskies

McNeeley’s a more gifted offensive player than his numbers showed at UConn, with his stats being dragged down in the closing stretch of the season as he battled back from an ankle injury. He has the size, shooting ability and competitiveness to be a target for a number of teams in this range, including New Orleans.

24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Hugo González, Real Madrid (Spain)

OKC seems unlikely to roster two first-rounders, and González doesn’t seem overly interested in being stashed in Europe for a year. Assuming the Thunder keep this pick, he’s a player that makes sense for them to target with his motor and winning characteristics.

25. Orlando Magic: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida Gators

The Magic already added one sharpshooter this offseason in Bane and seems intent on contending in the Eastern Conference. An older guard like Clayton who can provide shooting and playmaking off the bench on an affordable contract fits well here.

26. Brooklyn Nets: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin (France)

Traore’s draft night range appears somewhat wide, from as early as the late lottery into the back end of the first round, depending on how the board falls. If Brooklyn doesn’t get a point guard with its pick at No. 8 (they are believed to covet Fears, though it’s unclear if he’ll make it that far), it’s easy to imagine them functioning as Traore's floor.

27. Brooklyn Nets: Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s Hawks

Fleming may have the most impressive physical attributes of any player in this class and married that with an improved motor and more consistent productivity in his junior year at St. Joseph’s.

28. Boston Celtics: Noah Penda, Le Mans (France)

Boston could go in a number of directions with this pick as it evaluates how to move forward with Jayson Tatum sidelined for 2025–26, but a high-feel versatile forward like Penda would be a fairly smooth fit.

29. Phoenix Suns: Maxime Raynaud, Stanford Cardinal

Phoenix moved into the lottery after the Durant trade, but at No. 29 the Suns should be looking for older, game-ready players to plug into their rotation. Raynaud, who was among the combine’s biggest stars, would fit that mold.

30. Los Angeles Clippers: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton Bluejays

Kalkbrenner’s five-year career at Creighton will be in the record books for a long time. While not an upside pick, his offensive game has continued to expand in addition to being one of the best rim protectors in college over his half-decade run.