Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. My favorite five minutes of sports over the weekend had to have been Reilly Smith’s game-winner for the Golden Knights with 0.4 seconds left, followed by randomly flipping on a playoff NLL lacrosse game that saw a game-tying goal scored with 3.6 seconds left just moments later.
In today’s SI:AM:
⚜️ Blessing in disguise for Saints?
Which way will the ping pong balls bounce?
In just a few hours, we’ll finally know where Cooper Flagg will begin his professional career.
Flagg is the biggest prize available in this year’s NBA draft, and Monday night’s draft lottery will determine which team earns the right to select him with the first pick.
Three teams—the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards—have the highest chance of winning the lottery at 14% each. The New Orleans Pelicans (12.5%), Philadelphia 76ers (10.5%), Brooklyn Nets (9.0%), Toronto Raptors (7.5%) and San Antonio Spurs (6.7%) are next up on the list.
Since the NBA flattened the lottery odds in 2019 to discourage tanking, one of the three teams with the best odds has been awarded the No. 1 pick in four out of six lotteries. Last year, though, the Atlanta Hawks won the lottery despite having just a 3% chance of doing so.
The Jazz are guaranteed to pick no lower than fifth, the Wizards are guaranteed to pick no lower than sixth and the Hornets can’t fall below the seventh spot.
Two teams could lose their first-round picks, depending on how Monday’s lottery plays out. The Sacramento Kings are almost assured to lose their pick. They will owe their pick to the Hawks if it falls out of the top 12, and they have a 96.2% chance of getting the 13th or 14th pick. The Sixers have a smaller chance of sending their pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC only gets Philadelphia’s pick if it is outside the top six, an outcome with a probability of 36%.
Just as with Victor Wembanyama in the 2023 draft, Flagg is undeniably the best player in this year’s class. The 6'9" former Duke forward is remarkably versatile on both ends of the floor—able to score equally well on the perimeter and the interior, and capable of defending all five positions. He’s also an exceptional passer and a high-energy player willing to hustle to make tough plays. Perhaps most tantalizing of all, he won’t turn 19 until late December.
The other similarity with the 2023 class is that there is plenty of depth behind the can’t-miss superstar. Rutgers guard Dylan Harper—the son of longtime NBA guard Ron Harper and brother of current Detroit Pistons player Ron Harper Jr.—is the consensus No. 2 player in the draft. Other potential top-five picks include Harper’s college teammate Ace Bailey, Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe and a pair of Flagg’s Duke teammates, Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel.
Flagg will make an immediate impact on whichever team lucks into the privilege of drafting him, but of the teams with the best chance of winning the lottery, the Hornets are the most appealing destination. By pairing Flagg with a talented distributor in LaMelo Ball and another do-it-all forward in Brandon Miller, Charlotte would have the foundation of a winning team.
The funniest possible lottery outcome is obvious. Could you imagine the Spurs winning two lotteries in three years to draft two of the best players in a generation? At 6.7%, it isn’t totally out of the question.
The best of Sports Illustrated
• Today’s Digital Cover is Bob Harig’s preview of this week’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, where Rory McIlroy will seek to continue his hot streak just four weeks after finally winning his first Masters.
•The Rockies fired longtime manager Bud Black, but Tom Verducci believes the franchise’s issues run far deeper than who the manager is.
• Conor Orr explains why Derek Carr’s unexpected decision to retire could be a blessing in disguise for the Saints.
• Stephanie Apstein has a fun story about Juan Soto’s habit of hanging out with the pitchers in the Mets’ bullpen.
• The Pacers are up 3–1 on the Cavs after a historically lopsided Game 4.
• This will be the biggest story of the NBA offseason: Giannis Antetokounmpo is reportedly open to a trade.
• My least favorite part of the NFL season is here—when the league begins to release its schedule piece by piece. It just announced who will be playing in the season opener. The full schedule will be released on Wednesday night.
• Shohei Ohtani is not expected to pitch again until after the All-Star break.
The top five…
… things I saw yesterday:
5. Ben Rice’s first career grand slam. Rice has been red-hot for the Yankees this season after a disappointing rookie year.
4. A diving catch in center by Nationals rookie Dylan Crews.
3. Yet another goal for Mikko Rantanen, his ninth of the playoffs.
2. Pacers big man Myles Turner creating his own shot in Indiana’s high-scoring first half.
1. Catherine Dubois’s game-winning goal for the Montreal Victoire in the fourth overtime of a PWHL playoff game.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | The Cooper Flagg Draft Lottery.