April is officially in the books. We’re still comfortably in the early days of the 2025 campaign, but the sample size is big enough that we can start to glean at least some meaning from the information we’ve gathered so far. No, they don’t give out awards for strong first months, and nobody will hang banners for being in first place on May 1. But it would be foolish to dismiss all that’s happened to this point with a pithy, “It’s early.”
Consider the Baltimore Orioles, for example, who opened the year with a roughly 50% chance at making the postseason, per FanGraphs. A 12–18 start has seen those odds plummet to 16.5%. Does that subpar 30-game stretch doom the O’s, winners of 192 games over the past two seasons? Of course not, but it does alter a forecast that was much rosier a few weeks ago.
Take that same approach to the individual level, and we can begin to adopt a more critical view of players off to slow starts that usually find themselves near the tops of leaderboards. When is it time to panic? Below is a breakdown of six All-Star-caliber players who aren’t looking like their usual selves in the nascent stages of 2025, and how concerned we should be about their poor form sticking around.
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
2025 stats: 97 PA, .228/.268/.413, 3 HR, 5 RBI
After winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2023 and finishing fourth in MVP voting in ‘24, Henderson appeared primed for a superstar turn this season. A strained intercostal muscle forced him to start the year on the injured list, but he debuted on April 4 after only missing Baltimore’s first two series.
It’s taken the 23-year-old some time to regain his footing. Henderson’s strikeout rate has ballooned to 27.8%, while his walk rate is 5.2%—both career worsts. While Henderson’s chase and swing rates are in line with career norms, he’s missing on non-fastballs much more frequently than he has in years past. His whiff rates against breaking and offspeed pitches are 44% and 50%, respectively, compared to sub-30% in both categories last season.
Panic meter: 2/10. Henderson is still blistering the ball when he makes contact, so here’s betting on him turning things around once he shakes off the rust from all the time he missed in spring training.
Yordan Alvarez, DH, Houston Astros
2025 stats: 117 PA, .219/.316/.354, 3 HR, .135 ISO
The fearsome Alvarez hasn’t put much of a scare into opposing pitchers this season, with a slugging percentage 220 points lower than his career average. The issue has been against heaters, with Alvarez batting a mere .186 against fastballs to date. And while his average exit velocity (94.1 mph) still ranks in the 94th percentile among qualified hitters, his hard-hit rate (45.7%) would be a career low. Alvarez has managed only seven extra-base hits in 28 games.
Panic meter: 2/10. There’s no obvious difference in Alvarez’s chase or contact rates, and his bat speed and exit velocities indicate there’s nothing physically bothering him. Expect a swift return to form soon.
Willy Adames, SS, San Francisco Giants
2025 stats: 137 PA, .208/.292/.300, 2 HR, 7 XBH
The Giants’ $182 million shortstop has looked nothing like the player who hit 112 homers over the previous four seasons. At first glance, nothing looks too drastically different compared to last year—his average exit velocity (88.4 mph), strikeout rate (23.4%), walk rate (10.9%) and chase rate (27.4%) are in line with his career norms. But Adames just isn’t doing damage the same way he used to. He’s maintaining his extreme fly-ball approach, but squaring the ball up less frequently, which has resulted in lots of lazy fly balls that have dragged his BABIP down to .261. And that isn’t a formula for success in his new home in San Francisco.
Panic meter: 8/10. At this point, the reason for optimism is simply his track record, because it’s difficult to find signs of optimism from what he’s done this season.
Dylan Cease, SP, San Diego Padres
2025 stats: 6 GS, 1–2, 5.76 ERA, 1.62 WHIP
Volatility has always been a key component of the Dylan Cease experience. But over the course of his seven-year career—particularly his last four, during which he’s posted a 3.52 ERA and 3.32 FIP over 130 starts—his brilliance has far outweighed his blips of ineffectiveness. Through six outings this season, though, he hasn’t been able to push the right buttons.
Cease’s strikeout and walk rates look fine, but his command is shaky enough that he’s been unable to manage his pitch count well, to the point where he’s failed to make it out of the fifth inning three times and has completed six frames just once. His four-seam fastball has also been problematic, with opposing hitters batting .326 with a .512 slugging percentage against it.
Panic meter: 3/10. A 3.18 FIP and .388 BABIP that’s sure to regress should reassure Padres fans that better days are ahead.
Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
2025 stats: 119 PA, .221/.252/.274, 0 HR, 3 BB
After driving in 97 runs in each of the past two seasons and making his first All-Star team in 2024, Bohm has cratered to open ‘25. He has the seventh-lowest ISO (.053) among 168 qualified hitters and is still searching for his first home run. Hitting the ball hard has never been the 2018 first-round pick’s issue—rather, he’s had a difficult time lifting the ball in the air to translate hard contact into extra bases. Bohm’s 50.5% ground ball rate is greatly suppressing his ability to do more damage in the batter’s box. Combined with his 2.5% walk rate—which ranks in the second percentile of MLB—and there haven’t been many bright spots here.
Panic meter: 5/10. Despite the struggles, Bohm has maintained his ability to make consistent contact. The results have been abysmal, but the potential seems to still be there, waiting for a key adjustment or two to resurface.
Tanner Houck, SP, Boston Red Sox
2025 stats: 6 GS, 0–2, 7.58 ERA, 1.8 HR/9
Houck broke through in 2024 for his first All-Star appearance, but it’s been a free-fall back down to Earth this season. In his first four starts, he managed only 11 strikeouts and nine walks over 18 ⅔ innings, culminating in a 12-run outing (11 earned) against the Tampa Bay Rays on April 14. The results since then have been more encouraging (six earned runs allowed with 13 strikeouts over 11 frames in his last two starts), but Houck is still searching for his first win of the year.
Never a big swing-and-miss arm, Houck has seen his strikeout rate dip below 20% for the first time in his career, while his walk rate (9%) is his highest since his rookie year. His sweeper, which was something of a revelation last season, has been completely ineffective in 2025. The same goes for his splitter, which opponents have hit .379 against so far.
Panic meter: 8/10. Pitchers who don’t miss bats and lack pinpoint control don’t have very high ceilings. The ERA is sure to come down, but last season’s 3.12 mark is looking more like a mirage.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Panic Meter: Which MLB Stars Off to Slow Starts Have Reason to Worry?.