The majority of seasons in Europe’s elite divisions are in their infancy and title-winning expectations are already palpable across the continent.
The likes of Liverpool, Barcelona and Napoli are among those aiming to defend their domestic titles in 2025–26, but competition will be fierce. There are plenty vying to dethrone the top dogs across Europe and clinch their own slice of history come the end of the campaign.
CIES Football Observatory have delved into the data and have predicted the winners of Europe’s top 15 divisions based on a statistical model that combines sporting, economic and demographic variables.
Let’s take a close look at their predicted champions for the 2025–26 campaign.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Winners of Europe’s Top Leagues
The supercomputer has predicted the winners of an array of leagues across the world and we can hone in on Europe’s top 15 divisions, using UEFA coefficient rankings to decipher the strongest leagues—excluding Norway’s Eliteserien, which is the 12th highest ranked competition but kicked off in March.
England’s Premier League remains the leading division in Europe and continues to attract unmatched interest due to its competitive nature. That is underscored by the data, which has predicted Liverpool to defend their title this season but only with a probability of 28.9%—the third lowest across any of the top 15 leagues. Arsenal (18.8%) are once again expected to push them all the way this year.
Italy have jumped to second in UEFA’s coefficient rankings and has proven the toughest division for the supercomputer to predict. Napoli are reigning Serie A champions but have been tipped to surrender their crown to Inter, with last year’s Champions League finalists given a 25.6% chance of glory despite a change of management over the summer.
La Liga is a straight shootout between Real Madrid and Barcelona more often than not, with the former forecasted to win the title this season. Their Catalan rivals stole the trophy from them last year but the arrival of Xabi Alonso should help Los Blancos rediscover their mojo after an underwhelming 2024–25 season. Barça are given just a 29.6% chance of glory compared to Madrid’s 40.6%.
It’s a safe assumption that Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain will win the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 respectively this season, especially given both sauntered to the summit last term. PSG, who have won 11 of the last 13 French first division titles, have a 73% chance of finishing top—the second highest percentage of any league analysed (only behind Red Star Belgrade in Serbia).
PSV Eindhoven have won the last two titles in the Netherlands but Feyenoord are backed to return to top spot in 2025–26. Club Brugge are also expected to steal the title in Belgium, besting last year’s champions Union Saint-Gilloise.
Sporting CP, Galatasaray, Slavia Prague, Olympiacos, Copenhagen and Basel all won their respective league titles last season and are tipped to secure the trophy again this campaign.
However, Legia Warsaw are predicted to usurp Lech Poznań in Poland and RB Salzburg are backed to overthrow Sturm Graz in Austria this term.
*Norway’s Eliteserien is UEFA’s 12th highest-ranking league but has not been included in the supercomputer’s predictions due to their season starting in March.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Winners of Europe's Top 15 Leagues.