There is no fighting gravity, especially when it comes to the weight of the 162-game season. That is why most of the major awards are won in the second half, when playoff spots are won and lost and fatigue can set in.
It happened to Gunnar Henderson last year. The Orioles shortstop was an MVP candidate at the All-Star break last year with 28 homers and a .956 OPS. Gravity pulled him to nine homers and a .799 OPS in the second half.
Here are my picks for the major awards of the first half. Take them for what they are worth: snapshots in time, not predictions. The second half will tell. It carries more weight.
AL MVP
1. Aaron Judge, Yankees
2. Cal Raleigh, Mariners
3. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
I get the Raleigh argument. He has started 70 of Seattle’s 96 games behind the plate. He is calling pitches, blocking pitches in the dirt, wearing foul balls and absorbing all the wear and tear of catching while falling one home run short of the Barry Bonds’s asterisk-laden 2001 mark of 39 home runs before the All-Star break. If he keeps this up, Raleigh may very well win the MVP on account of posting the greatest year ever by a catcher (min. 100 games caught), which currently belongs to Mike Piazza and his 185 OPS+ in 1997. But July has not been kind to Raleigh (.128 in 11 games), hinting at the cost of a catcher’s burden.
For now, the hitting gap between Judge and Raleigh is too massive for positional value to overcome. Judge is hitting 96 points higher (.355 compared to Raleigh’s .259), has 38 more total bases (a first-half record 258 to 220) and huge leads in OBP (.462 to .376) and slugging (.733 to .634). Don’t overlook getting it done in the clutch. Judge is hitting .365 with runners in scoring position with a 1.184 OPS; Raleigh is at .225 with a 1.034 OPS.
NL MVP
1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs
3. Juan Soto, Mets
Ohtani leads the NL in homers, slugging, OPS and has scored an absurd 90 runs in 95 games. He has done all that while rehabbing from a second elbow surgery and starting five games on the mound in which he has allowed one run over nine innings with 10 strikeouts and two walks. Don’t overthink it. Do not grow accustomed to the wonder of Ohtani.
Crow-Armstrong is chasing a 40-40 season with elite defense in center field, something that’s never been done. Not in his favor? The free-swinging PCA ranks 68th in the league in OBP (.302).
AL Cy Young Award
1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
2. Jacob deGrom, Rangers
3. Hunter Brown, Astros
In a crowded field that also includes Garrett Crochet, Bryan Woo, Joe Ryan and Max Fried, Skubal has separated himself from the pack. He is one of only two lefthanders with 150 strikeouts and a WHIP of less than 0.85 in the first half. The other is Sandy Koufax in 1963. Skubal has walked only 16 batters in 19 starts. No other lefthander ever reached the break with 150 strikeouts and so few walks.
NL Cy Young Award
1. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
2. Paul Skenes, Pirates
3. Matthew Boyd, Cubs
In a razor-thin race, Wheeler has the edge over Skenes in WHIP, strikeouts and batting average against, all categories in which he leads the league, and strikeout-to-walk rate. Skenes has the lower ERA. At 35, Wheeler has never won the Cy Young and has finished second twice. He is due.
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Jacob Wilson, Athletics
2. Nick Kurtz, Athletics
3. Carlos Narváez, Red Sox
Check back in on this race later. While Wilson is a throwback hitting machine with a .332 average, 113 hits and only 28 strikeouts, Kurtz is coming on strong with 17 homers, 44 RBIs and a .558 slugging percentage, all tops among rookies. From Fred Lynn in 1975 to Pete Alonso in 2019, the last 10 qualified rookies who slugged .550 or better all won the ROY.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Drake Baldwin, Braves
2. Agustín Ramírez, Marlins
3. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers
Ramírez leads all NL rookies in homers and RBIs, but Baldwin gets the edge based on his defense (most of Ramírez'’s starts have come as a DH rather than catcher) and a 62-point gap in OBP. But don’t bet against Misiorowski at the top of this list by season’s end. It’s only five starts, but the sample on Misiorowski is extraordinary. He is only the sixth pitcher in his first five games with 33 strikeouts, four wins and a sub-3.00 ERA—the first being Noodles Hahn in 1901 and the most recent Jesse Hahn in 2014.
AL Manager of the Year
1. A.J. Hinch, Tigers
2. Joe Espada, Astros
3. Kevin Cash, Rays
The Tigers are plug-and-play when Skubal pitches, but 3D chess when anybody else takes the ball. With MLB’s fourth-youngest team, Hinch is a master at using his whole roster, including mid-game line changes. He deploys Zach McKinstry at five positions, Javier Báez at four, four closers, eight high-leverage relievers, 10 different No. 3 hitters and seven center fielders. He winds up with the platoon advantage 58% of the time, seventh best in MLB. And though Detroit does not steal bases often, it is the best baserunning team in the AL.
NL Manager of the Year
1. Craig Counsell, Cubs
2. Pat Murphy, Brewers
3. Bob Melvin, Giants
The Cubs are not only the highest scoring team in MLB, but they also rank high in the NL in areas that reflect the influence of a manager: second in stolen bases, second in hitting with runners in scoring position, second in fewest games lost out of the bullpen, third in bullpen ERA, third in fewest strikeouts, fourth in defense (Outs Above Average) and fourth in baserunning value. It’s a credit to the Chicago staff that the team is loaded with established players playing their best baseball, such as Crow-Armstrong, Boyd, Carson Kelly, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, Daniel Palencia, Chris Flexen and Brad Keller.
AL Comeback Player of the Year
1. Jacob deGrom, Rangers
2. Javier Báez, Tigers
3. Spencer Torkelson, Tigers
The Rangers’ deGrom already has thrown more innings (112.1) and won more games (9) in half a season than he did in the previous three years combined. It has been six years since he threw this many pitches (1,639) and made it through 19 starts without breaking down. Not only is deGrom holding up, but he is also thriving with a throttled back style. In 2021, deGrom hit 100 mph 185 times. This year he has done so five times. He is second in the league in ERA and WHIP.
NL Comeback Player of the Year
1. Robbie Ray, Giants
2. Matthew Boyd, Cubs
3. Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
Ray has re-invented his throwing motion at least twice. After surgeries on his elbow and flexor tendon, Ray has found a new way forward with his pitch mix. He has always been a heavy fastball/slider pitcher—as heavy as 90% when he won the Cy Young Award in 2021. But now the percentage of those pitches is 74.1% and he’s throwing more changeups than he has since he was a rookie 11 years ago. Limited to seven mediocre, post-surgical starts last season, he is 9–3 with a 2.65 ERA and the Giants are 15–5 when he starts.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Tom Verducci’s 2025 First-Half MLB Awards.