Baseball’s regular season is inching closer to its final crescendo and the playoff races are in full throttle.
The never-say-die Rangers and Guardians have made things interesting in the American League, while the Mets’ collapse has opened the door for the likes of the Diamondbacks, Reds and Giants to dream of October baseball. Will New York hold on for the third wild-card spot? Can the Mariners win the club’s first division title since 2001? And will Brewers manager Pat Murphy take home some hardware for the second consecutive year?
We’ll answer those questions and more in another edition of Fact or Fiction.
The Mets will still make the playoffs despite their September skid
Things have been dire for the Amazin’s as of late. The Mets, once owners of the best record in baseball on June 12, must have broken a few mirrors or stumbled upon a black cat on Friday, June 13. Since that day, the Mets’ pitching—both starters and the bullpen—has taken a turn for the worse and the Juan Soto-led lineup has been inconsistent en route to baseball’s fourth-worst record. Heck, Mets fans can be forgiven if they began to think the team would never win a game again, as they had a nine-game losing streak before a Pete Alonso walk-off home run mercifully brought an end to the painful skid Sunday.
And yet, after all this losing, consternation and hand-wringing, the Mets are still in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. FanGraphs likes their chances—86.4% odds to make the postseason after they beat the Padres on Tuesday—and so do I. That’s because there’s still a lot to like about the Mets.
The lineup is slowly starting to wake up. Soto, the $765 million man, has been swinging a hot bat thus far in September and is on pace to hit the third-most homers in Mets history, trailing only two Alonso seasons. Speaking of Alonso, he’s homered in each of his last two games to snap a 10-game homerless streak. And Francisco Lindor went yard Tuesday to continue a five-game hitting streak. New York needs more than just those three, of course, but having the top of its order produce like it’s being paid to will go a long way towards the club making the postseason.
And as for the much-maligned starters, the Mets may have found the club’s new ace in No. 3 prospect Nolan McLean, as well as two more promising young arms in Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, the former of whom has struggled with his command in two starts since a promising debut. But with McLean, an innings-eater in David Peterson and the solid Clay Holmes, the bones of a potential playoff-caliber rotation are there. Should Kodai Senga, who excelled in his first Triple-A start after his demotion, find his form, there’s a glimmer of hope surrounding the Mets’ rotation.
If there’s one thing that could still sink these Mets, it’s the bullpen, in which the so-called circle of trust has dwindled to closer Edwin Diaz, Tyler Rogers and Brooks Raley. But call it a hunch, intuition or whatever you want to call it: I’m a believer that the Mets’ superior talent to the Diamondbacks, Reds and Giants will win out in the end. Mets reliever Ryne Stanek said Sunday’s walk-off win felt like a “deep breath” for the Mets. Perhaps the club will look back at that deep breath as the turning point.
Verdict: Fact
The Mariners will win the AL West for the first time since 2001
Seattle is playing its best baseball at the right time. On the back of a nine-game winning streak, the Mariners overtook the Astros for first place in the American League West on Sunday. The last time Seattle was in first place this late in the season, you ask? 2001, which was also the last time they won the division with a 116-win campaign. One could argue that this Mariners team has its best shot at a World Series title since that ‘01 club. But in order to get there, and to win the division, the Mariners are going to have to slay two dragons.
The first dragon: the Mariners’ road bugaboos. Seattle is a whopping 48–27 at home, but just 35–41 on the road, the worst record away from home among the current AL playoff field. The home-road gap has only widened in the season’s second half. Since the All-Star break, Seattle is 23–6 at home and just 9–17 on the road. The club’s road struggles are particularly odd given that, to begin the season, the Mariners were one of the best away teams in the game.
The culprit behind these road struggles? Away from the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, Mariners’ pitching has been significantly worse, compared to its offense, which has been much better away from home. In short, Seattle will have to find a way to pitch better away from home, particularly in this weekend’s massive road series against the Astros, one that will likely decide the division.
And that brings us to the second dragon; the Astros. Houston, winners of seven of the last eight AL West titles, has seemingly been there to crush the Mariners’ dreams time and time again in recent years.
In 2022, Seattle, riding an exciting young core, made the postseason for the first time since ‘01. Who was there to eliminate them soundly in three games in the division series? The eventual world-champion Astros.
The next season, Seattle won 88 games and was in the mix for a playoff spot until, late in the season, an Astros victory eliminated them from playoff contention.
On June 18, 2024, the Mariners had a 10-game lead over the Astros and seemed poised to cruise to a division title. But it was not to be. Seattle faltered down the stretch, and it was the Astros who took advantage and secured yet another division title.
Many of the same faces who endured the painful experiences of each of these seasons, such as Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert and Andrés Muñoz, remain on the roster. You can bet that each of them, and the rest of the Mariners roster, would love to turn the tables on the Astros this time around.
And while Houston, like Seattle, will send two of its best pitchers to the mound in the series, the Astros also have a dark cloud overhead in the form of Yordan Alvarez’s ankle sprain. Alvarez’s health could have a big impact on the series, given the Astros’ already inconsistent offense. Would it surprise me if the Astros, buoyed by experience and an excellent pitching staff, got the best of the Mariners and regained the lead in the AL West? No. But it feels like Seattle is catching Houston at the right time.
Verdict: Fact
One of the Rangers or Guardians will sneak into the playoffs
Let me first say this. It’s absolutely remarkable, for different reasons, what both these clubs have done to stay in the AL playoff picture.
Texas, riddled by injuries to ace Nathan Eovaldi and star infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien—to name a few—has shown a champion’s fight in holding strong in both the division and wild-card races. Since the All-Star break, Rangers starters have the lowest ERA in the majors, and the bullpen has been good enough to play a worthy supporting role. The lineup, powered by the “Little Rascals”—or the minor league replacements to Seager, Semien and others, has largely picked up the slack. And don’t forget about the steady hand of four-time World Series champion Bruce Bochy in all this.
Meanwhile, the Guardians went from a largely ho-hum trade deadline to playing its way into postseason contention, even fighting through a stretch that included 28 straight innings without scoring a run from Aug. 22 to 26. The resilience of these two teams cannot be understated. And so long as both teams continue to pitch as well as they have, they’ll have a fighting chance. But one has to wonder how much longer they can keep defying the odds, given the Rangers’ fatigued bullpen and the Guardians’ inconsistent lineup.
Texas has already dropped two games this week to the Astros, whom it is chasing. It can’t afford to lose Wednesday’s series finale—or more than a couple of games the rest of the way.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is ticketed to play the Tigers six times in its remaining 13 games. Then, these two teams finish out the regular season with a three-game series against each other.
There’s a chance that one or both parties could be out of the race by then. But should one of the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros or Mariners falter, one of these teams could gain the upper hand—and an improbable playoff spot—in that last series of the year. Stay tuned, folks.
Verdict: Fiction
Pat Murphy will win his second straight Manager of the Year Award
Last year, Murphy became the first Brewers manager to win the National League Manager of the Year Award. Now, he’s aiming to become just the second NL manager, and the first since Hall of Fame former Braves manager Bobby Cox, to win the award two years in a row. And man, it is hard to argue with his case.
Powered by a franchise-record 14-game winning streak in August, Murphy’s Brewers vaulted to the best record in baseball and opened up a sizable lead over the Cubs in the NL Central. Not only that, but among the current playoff field, Milwaukee boasts the youngest roster in MLB by average age. That makes the fact that he’s led the club to arguably one of its best seasons in franchise history even more impressive.
The Cubs’ Craig Counsell, who is on pace to lead Chicago to its first playoff appearance since the pandemic-shortened season, deserves plenty of consideration for the award, given that he looked like the favorite to take it home for much of the season. In the end, it’s too difficult to overlook what Murphy has accomplished for Milwaukee this season.
Verdict: Fact
Zero teams will win 100 games
Asking this question several weeks ago would have felt somewhat blasphemous. The Brewers were well on their way to 98-plus wins and the Tigers seemed destined to hit the century mark. Both clubs have slowed significantly since, and are now projected to fall short of 100 victories. Meanwhile, the Phillies have surged up the standings, already clinched the NL East title, and sit at 91 wins with 10 games to go.
Milwaukee possesses 92 victories and has 11 contests remaining on its ledger. Together, the Phillies and Brewers represent baseball’s best chance at a 100-win team this season, but the odds are against both teams. Philadelphia must win nine of its last 10 games to get to 100, a tall order even for a Phillies team that has won nine of its last 11 and has been on a tear. Milwaukee must secure eight victories in its final 11 games to reach the century mark, certainly not out of the question for a Brewers team that won 14 games in a row at one point in August.
What’s interesting is that one of these teams could push the other closer to the century mark. The Brewers currently hold a 1.5-game lead over the Phillies for the NL’s top seed, which grants homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and a first-round bye. While the Phillies are in the driver’s seat for the second of the two first-round byes, one can bet that the club would like to have home-field advantage throughout the entirety of the NL postseason, given how tough an environment Citizens Bank Park has proven to be. So here’s my prediction: the Phillies push the Brewers to the brink, Milwaukee goes 7–4 in its last 11 games and wins 99, falling just shy of 100 wins but setting a new franchise record for wins in the process.
Verdict: Fact
More MLB on Sports Illustrated
This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLB Fact or Fiction: Mets Will Still Make the Playoffs Despite September Skid.