Lots of questions to get to, even as the NFL spring winds down, and the summer break arrives. Let’s dive in …
From tunejunkE (@tunejunkE): MVP for this year?
Tune, give me Joe Burrow.
The wild thing is that he could have won it last year, in a season when the Bengals didn’t even make the playoffs. He threw more yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43) than anyone else, and had the most throws (652) and completions (460), too, while maintaining the fourth-highest completion percentage (70.6%) in all of football. His passer rating of 108.5 was third. And he accomplished all that with the NFL’s 30th-ranked run game alongside him, and the league’s 25th-ranked defense playing opposite him—giving him a heavy burden week-to-week.
That’s without even getting into Tee Higgins’s health, or Ja’Marr Chase’s contract standoff, which forced Cincinnati to integrate younger players at the receiver spots on the fly.
Now, Josh Allen was richly deserving of MVP last year, in lifting the Bills in their first post–Stefon Diggs season. Similarly, Lamar Jackson was a very worthy runner-up. So I’m not saying there was some injustice done. But it’s common that a guy will have an MVP-worthy year, and then actually get the award the year after (Allen’s an example of it). And in the end, I do think the Bengals will wind up winning 12 or so games, after the offense had its healthiest offseason in years, which will make Burrow’s body of work pretty hard to overlook.
Obviously, I reserve the right to change my mind. But I think Burrow’s in an awesome spot going into the fall.
From 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters): Which skill player camp battles are you most excited about across the league?
Off hand, I’ll give you a few …
• Browns’ quarterbacks: Obviously.
• 49ers’ receivers: We’ll see when Brandon Aiyuk is ready to roll—Week 1 seems like it’s still up in the air. Either way, he’ll be back at some point, which only heightens the stakes for Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Jacob Cowing and DeMarcus Robinson. Those guys will be fighting for reps early on, and perhaps relevance in the offense after Aiyuk is back, especially if some depth is developed at tight end behind George Kittle.
• Rams’ running backs: This seems like a funny one since Kyren Williams is coming off a year in which he was seventh in the NFL with 1,299 rushing yards, and tied for fifth with 14 touchdowns on the ground. Sean McVay said Tuesday the team is trying to get him extended. But what if that doesn’t happen? Blake Corum’s going into his second year, and rookie Jarquez Hunter is looming as an option. Which could bring some intrigue to training camp.
• Chiefs’ tight ends: No, Travis Kelce didn’t reverse course on his retirement decision—he’s still playing. However, how they use and pace him through the season is an open question. So Noah Gray, who got an extension last year, could get more work. Aaron Rodgers’s old buddy Robert Tonyan is there. And rookie Jake Briningstool is shaping up as a summer dark horse to carve out a role in the offense.
• Cowboys’ running backs: Javonte Williams is a worthy reclamation project. Ditto for Miles Sanders. And I really like Jaydon Blue—but he’s under 200 pounds and thus likely ticketed for a limited role as a rookie. Can Dallas drum up enough competition to make it all work? Stay tuned. Camp should bring some answers.
From None Ya (@hambleedsgreen): Do the Eagles need to address the #2 corner?
I presume you’re talking about the second outside corner, and not the nickel spot that Cooper DeJean has nailed down, and if so then the answer is yes. Kelee Ringo and Eli Ricks are interesting in that they’re former five-star high school recruits that flashed a ton of potential in college, but were hurt and inconsistent at that level, and now are trying to make their mark as pros. Adoree’ Jackson’s got a lot of experience.
You’d think somewhere in there they’d be able to find an answer, but it’s no sure thing. And if things go South? We know Howie Roseman wouldn’t be afraid to address it in midseason.
From Sketchy (@Sketchy72): Where does KD end up?
Sketchy! The Rockets?
From Brian T. Jones, Sr. (@BJonesSports): Early ROY favorite NOT named Travis Hunter?
Brian, I think these things often boil down to opportunity—how much is a player getting, how early is he getting it and will what he did in college translate over when those chances are given?
That’s why I’d go with Ashton Jeanty. Young running backs typically contribute fast.
Bijan Robinson had 1,483 scrimmage yards on 272 touches as a rookie in 2023. Saquon Barkley had 2,052 scrimmage yards on 352 touches in ’18. Leonard Fournette had 1,342 scrimmage yards on 304 touches, and Christian McCaffrey had 1,098 scrimmage yards on 197 touches in ’17. Ezekiel Elliott had 1,994 on 354 touches (and won the rushing title) in ’16. And Todd Gurley went for 1,294 on 250 touches in just 13 games in ’15.
Those were the six running backs that went in the top 10 over the 10 drafts before this one. The bottom line is if you invest that high of a pick in that position, you’re going to expect, and should expect, a pretty healthy return right away. Math on the aforementioned half-dozen emphatically affirms it—the average rookie scrimmage yards for those guys was 1,543. So, to me, that makes Jeanty an easy Rookie of the Year pick, just as easy as Hunter.
From Herbie Mitchell (@mitchell_herbie): Who’s your early QB1 in next year’s draft?
Herbie, I’d start by saying I’m no scout, and I haven’t done a ton in the way of calling around on next year’s quarterback group. I’ll start on that soon.
But just in asking around, I’d say LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, Penn State’s Drew Allar and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik would be at the head of the class. No one needs me to point out that Texas’s Arch Manning has all the tools to get there, and the talent to jump to the front of the line (even though most would be pretty surprised if he left after just one year starting). Oklahoma’s John Mateer is another one worth watching.
The good news for quarterback-hungry teams is there seems to be a deep pool of promising prospects entering the season. The bad news is there may not be a lock among them. So I think I’d go with Allar. He and Klubnik are the only guys in the above group that have multiple years starting under their belts. He’s also got plus size and arm strength, and moves around better than some folks think. And my bet would be that NFL guys are really going to like him, the more they get around him.
(Again, Manning is in a bit of a separate category for me, both because I’d bet he stays at Texas in 2026, and because he’s only got two starts on his résumé.)
From ZachLaymansNFL (@ZachLaymansNFL): Will Trey Smith end up playing on the tag, or is the deal close at hand?
Zach, I think the Chiefs get a deal done with him, but it won’t be easy.
The reason why is that the franchise tag for guards is not equal to the tag at other positions—because offensive linemen are grouped together, it’s actually based on what the NFL’s top tackles make. So he’s in a rare spot where his tag number ($23.4 million) is actually higher than the top of the market at his position (Philly’s Landon Dickerson makes $21 million per year).
Generally, the equation for tagged players is that you take the equivalent of two tags, and that becomes the guarantee over the first two years. That adds up to $51.5 million, or an average of $25.74 million. That would be a massive jump over the top of the market. Smith’s leverage would be that, health permitting, he could just play out this year at $23.4 million, and then force the Chiefs to tag him again or let him go to free agency next March.
Where’s the compromise? We’ll see.
From o-Town (@Vanvcitysaint): The Raiders might make some noise this year? I feel like they are one of the most improved teams this off season.
o-Town, I’d agree they’ll definitely be better. Geno Smith is an obvious upgrade at quarterback. Jeanty gives them a skill player to build the offense around. Chip Kelly will bring new ideas to the table. The offensive line’s development should add something, too, given the promise Jackson Powers-Johnson and DJ Glaze have shown. And the defense certainly isn’t devoid of talent.
To me, so much of what the Raiders did from a big-picture standpoint this offseason was about giving the organization some semblance of credibility back. That’s why Tom Brady was so important as an addition, in bringing in big-money guys like Egon Durban, Michael Meldman and his business partner Tom Wagner. That’s why you hired Pete Carroll.
So add that charge to where the roster is, and I think it’s fair to expect a credible product in 2025. Whether it’s six wins or eight wins, I don’t know. But I do think they’ll be noticeably better this fall, even if the actual improvement from a win/loss perspective is a bit weighed down by the division they play in.
From Ayron’s Action (@AyronsAction): Super Bowl prediction?
Eagles over Chiefs? I don’t know. I’ll wait on that. I just know I probably shouldn’t pick Bengals-Niners for the third straight year.
From Cody Marmon (@cody_marmon): Does Kirk Cousins end up being the backup for the Atlanta Falcons?
Cody, I think that’s the most likely scenario at this point.
It feels, to me at least, like it’ll take a material change to someone else’s quarterback situation (be it by performance or injury) for Cousins to wind up on another team. My understanding is that once camp starts, Cousins, whose family is now rooted in his wife’s home state of Georgia, might not just waive his no-trade clause to start anywhere—it may take the right situation for him to go.
I wouldn’t say this story is over. But we are well into the back half of the book.
From doug mccready (@dgmccready): Ragnow retiring was a shock to Lions fans. Do you think they were prepared for this?
Doug, yes, they were. There was good communication between Frank Ragnow and the Lions in recent weeks, and the team knew the retirement consideration was real. And they drafted Georgia guard Tate Ratledge in the second round in April’s draft, seeing position flexibility that could land him at center, if things played out this way. They also have Ragnow’s predecessor at center, 10-year veteran Graham Glasgow, capable of moving from guard, too.
Now, that’s not to say losing Ragnow isn’t a blow. It’s a big one. But the Lions have been ready for it, and should be just fine at the position.
From Zach Fogelman (@FogelmanZach): Will the Rams address the cornerback position? How likely is it that Ramsey will be traded back or the Jaire Alexander route?
The Rams’ approach to filling the position in recent years has been interesting. The projected starters right now are a couple guys that came in as reclamation projects, in Ahkello Witherspoon and Darious Williams (who returned after starting his career in Los Angeles). Former first-rounder Emmanuel Forbes Jr. is in that mix too. And so taking a swing on Alexander or getting Jalen Ramsey back would kind of fit.
But I do think this is also a larger philosophical thing for the Rams, with much of their recent focus on building up the offensive skill spots and defensive front—areas they believe are truly impactful on wins and losses. I heard someone say that in today’s NFL, corners are more speed bumps than stop signs, and I think that might be how L.A. has come to view the position. Or at least that’s how it looks.
From Guillermo Raymundo (@NFLDraft_101): Seahawks win total in 2025?
Let’s say nine.
I like the Seahawks, but that division is tough.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Mailbag: Why Joe Burrow Is an Early MVP Favorite .