Manchester United are considered to have a significantly better chance of getting relegated than qualifying for the next season’s Champions League after a wretched start to the new Premier League campaign.

Ruben Amorim’s side were condemned to a limp 3–0 defeat by Manchester City on Sunday afternoon, leaving United with just four points from as many top-flight matches this term. The last time the club suffered such a slow start to a top-flight season was back in 1992—although Sir Alex Ferguson did lead the Red Devils to the first Premier League title at the end of that campaign.

There appears to be little danger of history repeating itself.

According to Opta’s supercomputer, which takes into consideration a raft of advanced metrics to establish the strength of each club before simulating the season’s remaining fixtures 10,000 times, United have a 0.18% chance of winning the Premier League. That this figure is above zero simply underscores the randomness of a game played with an unpredictable round ball.

Somewhat more concerningly, Opta suggest that United qualify for the Champions League in just 4.18% of their simulations. By contrast, the traditional English giants are relegated 10.95%.

Supercomputer Predicts Man Utd 2025–26 Season

Data via Opta. Correct as of Sept. 14, 2025.

After an encouraging yet fruitless defeat to Arsenal, United were held to a 1–1 draw by Fulham. A humiliating Carabao Cup second-round exit to Grimsby Town preceded the club’s only win of the season thus far—although there was little convincing about the nature of the 3–2 victory against Burnley secured by a stoppage-time penalty from Bruno Fernandes.

Burnley are considered to be the most likely side to get relegated this season by Opta’s supercomputer, tumbling back down to the second tier 52.23% of the time. Wolverhampton Wanderers (50.76%), Sunderland (46.02%), Leeds United (44.92%) and West Ham United (36.06%) are other leading candidates. Yet, aside from those five sides, only two more—Fulham and Nottingham Forest—are deemed to be more likely to be relegated than Manchester United.

Brentford, for instance, theoretically have a better chance of staying up, even after a summer exodus which saw the departure of their manager, captain, goalkeeper and leading scorer—who just so happened to join United.

In Opta’s hypothetical world, Amorim’s side are expected to finish 13th with less than 48 points. In some ways it’s an optimistic take, considering United slumped to 15th place with 42 points last term.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Delivers Shocking Man Utd Relegation Prediction After Derby Defeat.

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