It pains me to say this, but parity might be dead in the NFL.
We didn’t get the shocking upset victory that we usually get in Week 1. I guess the Steelers and Jets engaging in a shootout should suffice as a surprise because the rich keep getting richer.
The Bills and Ravens aren’t going anywhere after their chaotic back-and-forth battle during Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs did get punched in the mouth by the Chargers in Brazil, but they get the benefit of the doubt because they usually find a way to make the postseason.
Maybe this is my way of pointing the blame at the NFL for why my Week 1 picks stunk. Then again, it was probably a bad idea to side with nine underdogs for the opening week.
But it was somewhat refreshing to see the Packers shake up the power rankings with the beatdown they put on the Lions. After being merely an above-average team last year, they’re now true contenders because of what the Green Bay defense did in its first game with Micah Parsons.
Here are our winners and losers from Week 1.
WINNERS
Bills’ late-game composure
It’s usually a bad idea to call out your own fans, but in this case, Josh Allen was right to criticize the ones who left early before the Bills’ improbable 41–40 comeback victory against the Ravens.
Yes, Bills fans have been tortured for several decades and most recently have endured playoff heartbreak at the hands of the Chiefs. But Buffalo was playing Baltimore, not Kansas City. Also, Allen’s high-powered offense deserved more faith from the fan base because a 15-point deficit with more than seven minutes left to play is a feasible obstacle for this unit, especially when Allen is playing at his best—or in Bruce Lee mode, as Albert Breer explained in his Week 1 takeaways.
It wasn’t just Allen (394 passing yards, four total TDs) who stepped up in the clutch against the Ravens. This battle-tested Bills squad received game-changing plays from defensive tackle Ed Oliver, wide receiver Keon Coleman and many others.
Maybe those heartbreaking playoff exits have given the Bills a boost in mental strength and late-game composure. As long as Allen is in his Bruce Lee mode, the Bills are going to have a fighting chance until the end.
Justin Herbert
It was laughable that a certain talking head said that Herbert has been terrible in big-time moments. Clearly, those who felt that way forgot what Herbert achieved in a record-setting rookie year in 2020 or his elite Week 18 performance a year later that featured a handful of fourth-down conversions.
There was more of the same in 2022 and even in the past two years, just at a less frequent rate as those early years in his career. Calling out Herbert for poor playoff performances is fair. Saying Herbert has been terrible in the clutch dismisses his stellar resume.
Herbert is a legitimate franchise quarterback and has struggled in the playoffs—just like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Maybe Herbert hasn’t been as good as those two MVP QBs, but Herbert has the skill set and clutch performances to suggest that one day he could reach that elite tier on a consistent basis.
After what Herbert (318 passing yards, 3 TDs) did to the Chiefs in Brazil for a signature Week 1 victory, perhaps this is the year the Chargers’ star signal-caller finally puts it all together and delivers a playoff win or two. Herbert went from carrying mediocre rosters led by coaches Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley to being somewhat coddled by Jim Harbaugh last year.
It’s in Harbaugh’s DNA to lean heavily on the running game and make life easier for his quarterback. But Herbert can handle more and has proven that he can step up in the biggest moments, in case some of you have forgotten.
Packers’ Super Bowl odds
It wasn’t hard for the Packers’ decision-makers to realize that last year’s roster wasn’t good enough to compete with the top teams, as evidenced by the six losses against the Lions, Eagles and Vikings.
That’s why it made all the sense in the world that the Packers, who hate to relinquish first-round picks, went all in for Parsons, a special player capable of turning a fringe playoff team into a true contender. Even in limited snaps, Parsons’s arrival has already paid dividends, with Green Bay’s defense punishing Detroit’s loaded offense during the dominant 27–13 victory.
Parsons’s elite pass-rushing skills and ability to drop back in coverage will likely turn this Packers defense into a ferocious unit in 2025. More importantly, Green Bay will be a problem for the other established contenders in the league.
Daniel Jones and Shane Steichen
It appears that Steichen’s bold decision to bench Anthony Richardson in favor of Daniel Jones was the right one.
Maybe that’s a Week 1 overreaction because the Dolphins are really that bad, but Jones played within Steichen’s offensive scheme and the results speak for themselves in the 33–8 thrashing of Miami. Jones went 22-of-29 for 272 yards, contributed three total touchdowns and didn’t turn the ball over.
Let’s not forget the last time Steichen received competent quarterback play, he nearly took the Colts to the playoffs with Gardner Minshew II as the starter. If Jones continues protecting the football and leaning on his playmakers like running back Jonathan Taylor and rookie tight end Tyler Warren, perhaps that’s enough for Indianapolis to again contend for a playoff spot.
We’ll find out a lot more about the Jones–led Colts when they face the Broncos next week. For now, it seems Steichen’s job security is better with Jones leading the show over the inconsistent Richardson.
Rams’ stout defense
I think it might be time to accept that the Rams are more of a defensive team.
It’s hard to overlook an offense that features Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, but this defense constantly bailed out the stagnant offense last year and it’s clear that this unit is only getting better based on what it did to C.J. Stroud and the Texans during Week 1. The Texans only generated 265 total yards and had two turnovers in the ugly 14–9 loss.
Los Angeles appears to have found a gem in linebacker Nate Landman, the former Falcon who had a key forced fumble to seal the victory over Houston. There was also stellar play from defensive backs Kam Kinchens, Ahkello Witherspoon and Cobie Durant. It was only one game, but maybe this Rams defense offers more than just a stout pass rush.
LOSERS
Ravens’ defective offense
The highest gear in football is when the Ravens’ offense is rolling. There’s no stopping them when Derrick Henry is running through defenders and Jackson is making precise throws downfield and creating problems with his athleticism.
But for whatever reason, the Ravens always get in their own way, whether it’s Henry fumbling to spark the Bills’ wild comeback or Mark Andrews dropping a pass during a crucial two-point conversion in the playoffs.
The Ravens have an elite offense, but it can also be defective at times. It’s like in the sci-fi movies when the brainiac scientist is in the process of building the ultimate machine only to be rushed by the suits to release a faulty product.
Going back to 2022, the Ravens have lost seven games despite leading by double-digit points in the second half. Coach John Harbaugh needs to figure out why his talent-filled team is blowing big leads. For now, the Ravens can’t be trusted to get the job done in the biggest games.
Dolphins’ 2025 hopes
It’s time to blow it up, Dolphins.
Yes, I’m trying my hardest to avoid the Week 1 overreactions. Still, the Dolphins aren’t going anywhere with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the rest of their notable names. Even when they’re playing well, they usually fade when the temperatures dip in the winter and get outmuscled by the playoff teams.
But the Mike McDaniel–led Dolphins were at least supposed to be good in September. This Miami core group peaked back in September 2023 when it pummeled Denver for a 70–20 victory. Like the popular guy who peaked in high school being forced to put the letterman jacket away, the Dolphins need to have a fire sale.
They should also seriously ask themselves whether it’s time to move on from Tagovailoa, who had a turnover fest in Week 1 and was outplayed by Jones.
Brian Daboll and Russell Wilson
Daboll has one card left to play to prove that he's capable of leading the Giants in the right direction. It’s time touse it by turning to rookie Jaxson Dart.
The Broncos improved when they cut their losses with Wilson and turned to the draft to take Bo Nix. Obviously, other variables played a huge role in why Denver made the postseason last year. Still, the point stands that teams can no longer build with Wilson as the starter.
It’s been only one game, but even the Steelers’ offense looks better without Wilson, as Aaron Rodgers guided them to 34 points against the Jets.
Wilson offered no hope in the Giants’ embarrassing 21–6 loss against the Commanders. Daboll has the opportunity to bring new life into the organization by letting Dart prove himself against the Cowboys' weak defense, but instead announced Wilson as the Week 2 starter. Good luck with that.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 1 Winners and Losers: Justin Herbert Earns Trust, Ravens Not So Much.