Key Matchups, Predictions for Packers-Bears and More NFL Week 16 Games

There are a handful of massive games on the docket in Week 16. On Saturday, the Bears will host the Packers at Soldier Field in a game that will determine the NFC North leader. It’s also a game of massive importance for each in the playoff picture, but especially Chicago. If the Bears lose and the Lions win out (including a Week 18 rematch between the two sides), Detroit would make the postseason and Chicago would not.

In the NFC South, the Buccaneers will visit the Panthers with both clubs at 7–7 and coming off divisional losses despite being favorites. Tampa Bay and Carolina will play each other twice over the final three weeks, with this week’s contest set in Charlotte before the matchup shifts to Raymond James Stadium in Week 18.

In the AFC, the Patriots will try to secure a playoff berth with a victory over the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday night. However, the Ravens are only a game back in the AFC North, and with the first-place Steelers traveling to Detroit, there’s a good chance the two could be tied at 8–7 with two games left, including a season finale between the rivals in Pittsburgh.

But we start this week in Chicago, where the league’s oldest rivalry is renewed on the banks of Lake Michigan.

Packers (9-4-1) at Bears (10–4)

Spread: Packers -1.5

Key matchup: Jordan Love vs. the Bears’ secondary

Key stat: Love posted a QBR of 79.8 in their last meeting.

Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox

Two weeks ago, Jordan Love torched the Bears, throwing for 234 yards on 9.4 yards per attempt with three touchdowns in a 28–21 triumph, propelling Green Bay into first place in the NFC North.

Since then, Chicago has regained that mantle by a half-game after beating the Browns in Week 15, while the Packers lost on the road to the Broncos. But if the Bears are going to keep the musical chairs from continuing, they’ll need to be much better on the backend while also generating more pressure.

In that Week 14 matchup at Lambeau Field, Chicago managed only one quarterback hit and a single sack, courtesy of Montez Sweat. However, this week could look much different with Green Bay tackle Zach Tom potentially out Saturday, as he contends with a knee injury. Then there’s the status of receiver Christian Watson, who is dealing with a chest injury. He lit up the Bears two weeks ago, catching a pair of touchdowns as part of an 89-yard effort.

Chicago might be getting a significantly depleted Packers team limping into Soldier Field, and that’s to say nothing of Micah Parsons being sidelined with a torn ACL. But it all means nothing if the Bears can’t tighten up all phases of their pass defense, a unit that ranks 18th coming into the week.

Verdict: Green Bay 23, Chicago 20

Buccaneers (7–7) at Panthers (7–7)

Spread: Buccaneers -3

Key matchup: Carolina’s rushers vs. Tampa Bay’s front seven

Key stat: The Buccaneers are fifth in EPA per rush against (-0.10).

Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

The Buccaneers are in a virtual free fall. They’ve lost seven of their past 11 games and are now tied with the upstart Panthers for the top spot in the NFC South, traveling to Charlotte for their most important game of the season.

For Tampa Bay to win it, the defense must step up against the run. The Panthers don’t have an advanced passing attack outside of rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan, who leads the team in receptions (59), yardage (851) and receiving touchdowns (6). Nobody else on the Panthers has 330 receiving yards, making it imperative for coach Dave Canales that the run game is rolling behind Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard.

It won’t be easy gainst the Buccaneers, who rank fifth in EPA per rush against (-0.10) and 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (101.4). Last week, Todd Bowles’s defense did a decent job against the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson, limiting him to 93 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries.

But this is a tougher spot with Carolina at home for its biggest game since Cam Newton left town. The Panthers will be juiced up while the Buccaneers are trying to ward off a disaster.

Verdict: Carolina 27, Tampa Bay 23

Bo Nix is coming off a thrilling 34–26 win over the Packers. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Jaguars (10–4) at Broncos (12–2)

Spread: Broncos -3

Key matchup: Bo Nix vs. Anthony Campanile

Key stat: Jacksonville is third in EPA per pass against (-0.19).

Date, Time, TV: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

Bo Nix and the Broncos made a statement last week.

In a quasi-national game against the Packers, Denver was a home underdog despite being 11–2. The Broncos won, 34–26, with Nix having one of the best days of his young career, recording 302 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Against the Jaguars, Nix will face another quality test in Jacksonville and its first-year coordinator, Anthony Campanile. Campanile came over from Green Bay, joining Liam Coen’s staff and has shown real chops. The Jaguars rank third in EPA per pass against (-0.19), seventh in yards per play (5.0), fifth in yards per carry (3.9) and 10th in points allowed (292).

Considering Denver has the league’s fifth-ranked defense and a unit that leads the NFL with 58 sacks, Jacksonville will need its own defense to keep the score low. All this while Trevor Lawrence tries to keep the offense humming, a unit that has scored 32.8 points per game over the past seven weeks. But against the Broncos, points will be at a premium, putting the onus on Campanile and his group to be stout against Nix and Denver’s quick-passing game.

Verdict: Denver 22, Jacksonville 17

Patriots (11–3) at Ravens (7–7)

Spread: Ravens -3

Key matchup: Lamar Jackson vs. expectations

Key stat: Since returning from injury, Jackson has nine touchdowns in seven games.

Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

Is the real Lamar Jackson going to show up this season for the Ravens? Because if the answer is no, Baltimore isn’t going anywhere.

Jackson missed a month of action after sustaining a hamstring injury in a Week 4 loss to the Chiefs, and since his return, nothing has looked right. In his first game back, Jackson threw for 204 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win over the Dolphins. But in the six games since, he’s struggled.

Over that stretch, Jackson has failed to throw for 250 yards or rush for 50 yards in any game. He’s also accounted for five total touchdowns while throwing five interceptions, leading Baltimore to a 4–2 record during that time (although the wins have come against the Vikings, Browns, Jets and Bengals).

Facing New England, Jackson draws the ninth-ranked defense by EPA per play (-0.09) and 12th in pressure rate at 35.7%. If he can’t step up and create, whether it be with his right arm or his legs, the Ravens will need an enormous game from both their 23rd-ranked defense and running back Derrick Henry, who is enjoying his seventh 1,000-yard season.

Verdict: New England 27, Baltimore 20

49ers (10–4) at Colts (8–6)

Spread: 49ers -6

Key matchup: Brock Purdy vs. the Colts’ pass defense

Key stat: Indianapolis is 31st against the pass, allowing 247.6 yards per game.

Date, Time, TV: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN

The wheels have come completely off in Indianapolis, and it’s not just the offense.

While the headlines have primarily covered the Colts’ offense falling off due to the loss of quarterback Daniel Jones, the defense is also struggling mightily. Coordinator Lou Anarumo has seen his unit decimated by injuries, including the losses of corners Sauce Gardner (calf) and Charvarius Ward (concussion), as well as former All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (neck).

As those three pieces have missed extensive time in recent weeks, the Colts have lost five of their past six games, allowing 253.8 passing yards per game, including 352 to Patrick Mahomes in an overtime loss to the Chiefs. Now, Indianapolis will face the 49ers and Brock Purdy on Monday night, knowing a loss could spell virtual elimination from postseason contention.

San Francisco has thrown the ball effectively despite vacillating between Purdy and Mac Jones, ranking eighth in EPA per pass (+0.09). Christian McCaffrey has been the bellcow, threatening to have a 1,000-yard season of both rushing and receiving. He’s at 922 and 820, respectively, to lead the team in both categories.

For the Colts to have a realistic chance of making the playoffs over the final two weeks, they’ll need to beat the Niners. And to do that, they’ll have to tighten up their pass defense.

Verdict: San Francisco 24, Indianapolis 16