SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — After months of political turmoil, South Korea will elect a new president this week to succeed conservative Yoon Suk Yeol, who was ousted over his brief but shocking imposition of martial law.
Surveys suggested liberal Lee Jae-myung is heavily favored to win Tuesday’s snap election, riding on a wave of public disappointment of Yoon’s martial law debacle in December. The main conservative candidate, Kim Moon Soo, wants a come-from-behind victory, but observers say his refusal to directly criticize Yoon made it difficult for him to narrow the gap with Lee.
The winner will be sworn in as president on Wednesday without the typical two-month transition period. The new leader faces the urgent tasks of trying to heal the deep domestic divide over Yoon’s action as well as focusing on U.S. President Donald Trump’s America-first policy and North Korea’s advancing nuclear program.
Who is running for the presidency?
Lee, who represents the main liberal Democratic Party, is the favorite to win the elections. In three Gallup Korea surveys released last week, 46% to 49% of respondents picked Lee as their choice for next president, giving him a comfortable lead over Kim with 35% to 37%.
Lee narrowly lost the 2022 election to Yoon, and spearheaded parliament’s two votes to overturn Yoon’s martial law decree and impeach him, before the Constitutional Court formally dismissed him in April.
Lee’s outspoken criticism of South Korea’s conservative establishment and calls to punish those involved in Yoon’s martial law enactment have caused worries among his opponents that Lee’s election would further polarize the country.
Kim, a former labor minister under Yoon, has fought an uphill battle against Lee as his People Power Party struggles to restore public confidence. Kim’s opposition to Yoon’s impeachment and reluctance to explicitly criticize the disgraced leader drove him away from moderate voters, analysts say.
Three other politicians are running for the presidency, including Lee Jun-seok of the small conservative New Reform Party, who has categorically rejected Kim’s request to field a unified candidate between them to prevent a split in conservative votes.
What are main issues?
The election has got ugly, with candidates levelling damaging statements, personal attacks and even sexually offensive language against each other without unveiling clear, long-term visions for South Korea.
During last week’s televised debate, Lee Jae-myung labelled Kim as “Yoon Suk Yeol’s avatar,” while Kim called Lee a “harbinger of monster politics and dictatorship.” Lee Jun-seok faced withering public criticism after he used graphic references to women’s bodies to criticize Lee Jae-myung’s son over his purported sexually explicit online slur targeting a female singer.
Unlike past elections, North Korea’s nuclear program hasn’t emerged as a hot-button topic, suggesting that most candidates share a view that South Korea has few immediate ways to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons. Dealing with Trump’s aggressive tariffs policy hasn’t been a divisive issue either.
Kim has instead focused on portraying Lee Jae-myung as a dangerous leader who would likely wield excessive power by putting the judiciary under his control and revising laws to stop his criminal trials. Lee, for his part, has repeatedly questioned Kim’s ties with Yoon.
What challenges await the new leader?
South Korea’s new president will have little time to negotiate with the United States before July 9, when Trump’s 90-day pause on global tariffs expires, potentially exposing South Korean products to 25% tax rates. A U.S. federal court has recently ruled that Trump lacks authority to impose the tariffs, but the White House has appealed, leaving the long-term outcome unclear.
South Korea’s outgoing administration was trying to finalize a comprehensive “package” deal with the U.S. by early July to soften the blow to the country’s trade-dependent economy.
Lee has accused government officials of rushing negotiations for short-term political gains and said it wouldn’t serve national interests to obsess over securing an early agreement with Washington. Kim said he would place a priority on a meeting with Trump as soon as possible to resolve trade issues.
The next government in Seoul may also struggle to ease security tensions over North Korea’s advancing nuclear weapons program, which has been complicated by North Korea’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Lee has expressed a willingness to improve ties with North Korea but acknowledged that it would be difficult to hold a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un anytime soon. He said he would support Trump’s push to resume nuclear diplomacy with North Korea. Kim Moon Soo has promised to build up South Korea’s military capability and win stronger U.S. security support, suggesting he would uphold Yoon’s hard-line approach on North Korea.
Can the new government ease the national divide?
The most pressing domestic issue facing the new president will be a starkly divided nation that had seen millions rallying for months to either support or denounce Yoon.
Yoon had labeled Lee’s party as “anti-state” forces abusing their legislative majority to block his agenda. He also endorsed unsubstantiated conspiracy theories that the liberals had benefited from election fraud, prompting his supporters to rally in the streets with “Stop the Steal” signs.
Lee has issued a message of unity and vowed not to seek political vengeance against his rivals if elected. But his critics doubt that, suspecting Lee could use investigations of Yoon’s martial law decree as a vehicle to suppress his opponents.
Yoon’s legal saga is likely to overshadow the early months of Seoul’s next government, as the former president continues to stand trial on high-stakes rebellion charges, which carry a possible sentence of death or life in prison.
