PORTSMOUTH (WAVY) — Come Thursday, President Trump is expected to impose his latest round of tariffs, with some as high 41% on U.S. imports as those steep rates set to hit more than 60 countries, and they could have an impact on families as they shop for back-to-school items.
“We know empirically that these price increases, if they then come, are going to be passed on straight to consumers,” said David Bieri, an associate professor in urban affairs and planning at Virginia Tech.
The National Retail Federation rolled out its 2025 estimates last month, predicting elementary through high school student families will spend an average of $858, which includes a back-to-school shopping list of apparel, shoes, general supplies and electronics. But that number would shift with the new rates as large chain stores prepare to hike prices.
“You look at these sort of things — pencils, everything’s made in China in that sense,” he said. “And so, yes, families have to plan a lot more in that sense if they want to not miss out on deals.”
On the contrary, the new rates could allow retailers leverage over consumers as we begin to see more price competition, zoning in on quality opposed to dollar amount.
“Consumers have another resource that is extraordinarily limited — not only money, but also time,” Bieri said. “And so people might actually be willing to stomach some of those price increases if you can acquire a bargain. You know, give them stuff where they say, maybe I would have wanted it’s somewhat cheaper, but since it’s already prepackaged in everything, I’ll buy it anyway, and I won’t notice the $10 or $15 more that I’m paying.”
But Bieri cites uncertainty around where things will head over the next six months.
“The Trump administration has been arguing that by bringing people to the table to negotiate these deals through tariffs, ultimately, the American economy is going to benefit because it’ll allow us to export more,” he said. “The extent to which this will work out will take months, if not years, all else equal, assuming that everything passes as we see it evolve.”
The new tariffs are set to go into effect Aug. 7.