As expected there is a stretched-out area of low pressure that has moved up into our region today from the south.

It will continue to slowly drift north through the day. One could argue that it’s two small areas of low pressure with the northern/northeastern one becoming more dominant through the day. With this/these features developing as they are. The rainfall forecast has decreased since yesterday.

We’ll have scattered rain showers through the day, but they won’t be as heavy as this morning. Keep in mind that they will feel heavy with the strong wind.

The wind will be very strong at times today. So far we’ve had gusts to about 35mph. Mainly near the shore.

Cautiously, this is a little weaker for this time compared to the earlier forecasts. However, I do expect winds to increase today. Winds will probably gust up to 40mph or a bit higher with gusts 50 to 55mph possible near the shore/coast.

Winds may decrease this afternoon to the south but pick up to the north. Overall, winds should decrease a bit by the evening.

I will say that some of the models are showing a little less wind overall compared to previous runs. We’ll see if that trend continues. If it does, then maybe the tide forecast will come down a little.

Having said that…This system will produce moderate to major flooding during high tide. Mainly during the mid-afternoon tide cycle. The tide is forecast to be about 6.5ft during the highest tide at Sewell’s Point. This is the threshold between moderate and major. Here is the latest forecast:

It will be major levels at Lynnhaven Inlet, Smithfield, along the York and James Rivers, and over the Outer Banks.

Ocean overwash will be likely for a time. Unfortunately, we expect more beach erosion across the Outer Banks today. The tide at Duck, NC could reach up to around 7ft around midday.

This is just a quick blog. Meteorologist Kristy Steward will have a bigger one with more details later this morning.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler