(iSeeCars) – With the $7,500 federal incentive for new electric vehicles and the $4,000 incentive for used models set to expire on September 30, there will be fewer new EV sales and falling used EV prices starting in October. This is after new electric vehicle market share had already begun to plateau in late 2024, and after used EV values have fallen dramatically compared to gasoline models over the past year.
The latest iSeeCars study analyzed electric vehicle market share growth over the past six years, along with used EV supply and pricing compared to gasoline models. It also looked at which used cars are losing the most value at a time when the average used car price is going up. All three point to declining electric vehicle demand, and this is happening before the EV incentives go away.
“Electric vehicles have a role to play in the new and used car market,” said iSeeCars Executive Analyst Karl Brauer, “but that role won’t be at the level many government and private EV proponents have been touting for years. Everything from market share to pricing suggests EV demand has peaked and will likely decline in the coming years.”
Has Electric Vehicle Demand Peaked?
Predictions that electric vehicles would make up between 20% and 50% of new vehicle sales by 2030 were common just a few years ago. But new EV market share has stalled at 6.9%, and even declined over the past 12 months, according to Cox Automotive. Most EVs cost more than their gasoline equivalent when new, limiting demand even with the $7,500 incentive.
iSeeCars looked at the 1- to 5-year-old used car market to see how much EV share has grown since 2020. Between 2021 and 2024 the presence of EVs grew between 60.5% and 97.3% every year. But in the last 12 months the EV growth rate dropped to just 14.2%, indicating a marked slowdown in the number of new EVs feeding into the used market.
| EV Share of 1- to 5-Year-Old Used Cars: June 2020 to June 2025 – iSeeCars Study | ||
| Year | EV Share | % Growth Year-over-Year |
| 2025 | 3.3% | 14.2% |
| 2024 | 2.9% | 97.3% |
| 2023 | 1.5% | 61.4% |
| 2022 | 0.9% | 91.2% |
| 2021 | 0.5% | 60.5% |
“This is a lagging indicator, and of course it doesn’t include the impact of federal incentives being removed on September 30,” said Brauer. “What will market share growth for 1- to 5-year-old used EVs be in June of 2026? Will there even be growth? Will it contract?”
Used EVs: Gaining Volume, Losing Value
As electric vehicle share grows, so does used EV supply. In fact, there were 61.8% more used EVs for sale in the first week of July 2025 compared to the first week of July 2024. By comparison, used gasoline cars for sale only increased by 22.2% in that same timeframe.
But used EV demand isn’t keeping up with the growing supply, which is why used EV prices continue to fall even as pricing for used gasoline models increases. In June 2025 EV prices fell 4.8% compared to a year earlier; gasoline prices increased 5.2%.
| Average Prices of 1- to 5-Year-Old Used Cars by Drivetrain: June 2024 and 2025 – iSeeCars Study | |||
| Drivetrain | Avg Price June 2024 | Avg Price June 2025 | % Price Change Year-over-Year |
| EVs | $32,923 | $31,354 | -4.8% |
| Internal Combustion Vehicles | $30,931 | $32,525 | 5.2% |
“Used car shoppers focus, first and foremost, on value. For them, used EVs offer about $1,200 less in value than a gasoline vehicle, and while you can love or hate the market, you can’t argue with it,” said Brauer.
EVs Lead the Charge on Losing Value
When looking at which used models are losing the most value, electric vehicles again play a disproportionate role. EVs only make up 3.3% of the 1- to 5-year-old used market, but they take up 50% of the top 10 list when it comes to losing value.
| Top 10 Used Cars With the Biggest Price Drops: June 2024 and 2025 – iSeeCars Study | ||||
| Rank | Model | Avg Price June 2025 | $ Price Difference Year-over-Year | % Price Difference Year-over-Year |
| 1 | Tesla Model S | $46,671 | -$8,768 | -15.8% |
| 2 | Tesla Model X | $51,884 | -$9,544 | -15.5% |
| 3 | Tesla Model Y | $29,387 | -$4,637 | -13.6% |
| 4 | Ford Explorer Hybrid | $30,960 | -$3,441 | -10.0% |
| 5 | Jeep Gladiator | $34,230 | -$3,642 | -9.6% |
| 6 | Tesla Model 3 | $25,132 | -$2,598 | -9.4% |
| 7 | Maserati Levante | $44,160 | -$3,765 | -7.9% |
| 8 | Porsche Taycan | $78,200 | -$5,862 | -7.0% |
| 9 | Chrysler Voyager | $22,521 | -$1,591 | -6.6% |
| 10 | Lincoln Aviator | $43,130 | -$2,703 | -5.9% |
| EV Average | $31,354 | -$1,569 | -4.8% | |
| Internal Combustion Vehicle Average | $32,525 | $1,594 | 5.2% | |
“It doesn’t help the ‘EV value story’ when Tesla makes up the majority of the EV market in the U.S. while also leading the used car market in price drops,” said Brauer. “Tesla takes up the first three rankings in used cars that lost the most value, with Tesla’s fourth model ranking sixth.”
What Do These EV Challenges Mean for Consumers?
If you’re a consumer considering either a new or used EV purchase, keep the following points in mind:
If you’re going to buy an EV, don’t wait: The EV incentive ends on September 30, 2025, and dealers will likely reduce their EV stock after that date. If you want to save money on an EV while also having more choice in which EV you buy, don’t wait until the last minute. Consider making your purchase in the next few weeks versus being forced to sift through the leftovers in late September.
Consider leasing instead of buying: If you lease an EV before the incentive goes away the $7,500 credit can substantially reduce your lease payment, reducing your monthly car costs. And between the consistently low used EV values and the rapid advances in EV technology, leasing can shield you from the negative effects of these factors that can catch up to you later if you buy an EV.
Consider a plug-in hybrid: If the primary appeal of buying an EV is to kick the gasoline habit, keep in mind that today’s plug-in hybrids can offer between 30 and 60 miles of all-electric driving before they run out of range and the engine fires up. If your daily driving needs are less than that range you could be “driving an EV” almost all of the time. If you have to go beyond their all-electric range, plug-in hybrids still get excellent fuel efficiency when the engine is used. They also don’t force you to deal with range anxiety and they hold their value much better than EVs.
Don’t panic, EVs won’t vanish: While it’s likely electric vehicle sales will fall after the new and used incentives go away and many models may be delayed or cancelled due to the drop in demand, automakers have invested too much money to completely abandon EVs. There will always be some electric options in the new and used car markets. If you can’t or don’t want to buy before September 30, that’s okay. Just relax and consider an EV purchase when it makes sense for you.
More from iSeeCars:
- Used Car Prices Going Up, Tesla Prices Going Down
- The Sub-$20K Used Car is Almost Gone
- Best Electric Cars
Methodology
iSeeCars analyzed over 7.7 million 1- to 5-year-old used cars sold in June 2019 through June 2025, as well as over 2.8 million 1- to 5-year-old used cars listed for sale the week of July 1–7 in both 2024 and 2025. The share of electric vehicles was compared across those periods, as well as pricing trends of used EVs in June 2024 and June 2025.
About iSeeCars.com
iSeeCars.com is a data-driven car search and research company that helps shoppers find the best car deals by providing key insights and valuable resources, including the iSeeCars VIN Check report and Best Cars Rankings. iSeeCars has saved users over $440 million so far by applying big data analytics powered by over 25 billion (and growing) data points and using proprietary algorithms to objectively analyze, score, and rank millions of new and used cars.
This article, The Future of Electric Vehicles, originally appeared on iSeeCars.com.
