HAMPTON ROADS, Va. (WAVY) — The latest poll from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University — and its last poll before Election Day on Nov. 4 — shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger ahead by a slightly smaller margin over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.
Some takeaways from the CNU pollster:
- Spanberger is expected to win
- The Jay Jones texting scandal could be influencing the lieutenant governor’s race, and certainly his own race
For governor, Spanberger holds a comfortable 50%-43% lead over Earle-Sears, who has closed the gap after being down 10 points.
“In terms of how Spanberger is doing, she’s leading among independents by six points, but this is down from a 12-point lead among independents earlier in polling in early October poll,” said Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, research director at the CNU Wason Center. “Now she continues to lead among Black voters, women, younger voters and voters with college degrees. I’ll also note that Spanberger’s share of Black voters has increased since our last poll.”
For lieutenant governor, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid 47%-45% in a tightening race within the margin of error.
“Since that early October poll, the two candidates are currently tied among independents at 44%, and Hashmi is leading among women, Black voters, and voters with a college degree,” Bromley-Trujillo said. “John Reid is leading among White and male voters, and voters without a college degree.
For attorney general, Republican Jason Miyares has a slim lead over Jones, 46%-45%, with 8% undecided, which is surprisingly close, keeping in mind the big October surprise in which Jones, in text messages, imagined shooting former Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert, “two bullets to the head.”
“So first of all, the results indicate that Jones’ text messages from 2022, it may be costing him the election, particularly with independents who may choose to either not vote at all, or certainly if they do vote, choose to switch to Miyares,” Bromley-Trujillo said.
A question was asked in House of Delegate races: Are you going Democrat or Republican? Democrats have trounced Republicans in raising money.
Under the leadership of House of Delegates Speaker Don Scott, Democrats have raised $45,024,394, compared to Republicans $20,281,584. The most recent reporting period from Sept. 1-Sept. 30, Democrats raised $16,566,007 to Republicans $5,643,385.
“We asked a question about who are you voting for? The Democratic Party, in our poll has an eight-point advantage over the Republican Party, 51% to 43% on this generic ballot test,” Bromley-Trujillo said.
The poll also shows important issues going into the election:
- For Republicans, they are focused on immigration, inflation and then crime
- For Democrats, by a far margin, they are focused on threats to democracy, health care and inflation
