RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — During this year’s Atlantic hurricane season (June 1-Nov. 30), North Carolina State University researchers predict we will have a season that’s “in line with recent averages”.

The forecast released Tuesday said the Atlantic basin will see 12-15 named storms. This basin area encompasses “the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea”, according to NC State researchers.

Of those 12-15 named storms, researchers said 6-8 will likely grow strong enough to develop into hurricanes with 2-3 having the potential to strengthen into major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher).

Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth, and atmospheric sciences at NC State, said the long-term average of named storms is 11 (when looking at data from 1951 to 2023) and the more recent average (1994 to 2024) is 15 named storms.

“The Gulf of Mexico’s forecast is also in line with recent averages,” researchers said in a release.

Of the 12 to 15 named storms predicted across the entire Atlantic basin, Xie’s data indicates it’s likely 1-3 of those named storms would form in the Gulf, with 1-2 of them becoming hurricanes, and the potential for one to become a major hurricane. Historic averages for the Gulf are 3 named storms and 2 hurricanes.

On the researcher’s methodology, the university said it “evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin”.

The forecast from NC State was a collaboration between the departments of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and computer science. NC State adjunct assistant professor of marine, earth, and atmospheric sciences, Xia Sun, is credited as the lead scientist of this year’s forecast team.